CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 25: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers throws a pass under pressure from Julius Peppers #90 of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 25, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Packers defeated the Bears 27-17. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
It makes me nervous anytime the Green Bay Packers face the Bears. Aaron Rodgers has had troubles against their defense (see last season's NFC Championship game). While the Bears offense never plays lights out, they usually do enough to keep it close. But these are not usual times.
Here are the rankings for both teams from Football Outsiders:
Since these rankings are for the entire season, they can't adequately relate the struggles of the Bears offense since they lost Jay Culter and Matt Forte to injuries. After a 20 point outburst against the Raiders, they've scored only two offensive touchdowns in their past three games. That's led to the benching of Caleb Hanie and the elevation of Josh McCown to starter. Even with Cutler and Forte, the Bears only managed 3 points in their last game at Lambeau Field.
Rodgers had a good game when the Packers beat the Bears in Chicago back in September. While the Chiefs put a lot of man pressure on the receivers, that's not like the Cover-2 coached by Lovie Smith. It wasn't a new formula that the Chiefs designed on defense, but a scheme that had been tried and failed by other teams. I wouldn't expect the Bears to make a drastic change on defense because the Chiefs plan worked. Instead, they'll rely on Julius Peppers to provide the rush, and try to force Rodgers into mistakes.
Packers 27, Bears 10.