Preview: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
by Brandon on Dec 25, 2011 7:00 AM CST
in Green Bay Packers Preview
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It makes me nervous anytime the Green Bay Packers face the Bears. Aaron Rodgers has had troubles against their defense (see last season's NFC Championship game). While the Bears offense never plays lights out, they usually do enough to keep it close. But these are not usual times.
Here are the rankings for both teams from Football Outsiders:
| Packers | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense | 1 | 27 |
| Pass Defense | 20 | 7 |
| Run Offense | 6 | 17 |
| Run Defense | 30 | 2 |
| Special Teams | 8 | 1 |
Since these rankings are for the entire season, they can't adequately relate the struggles of the Bears offense since they lost Jay Culter and Matt Forte to injuries. After a 20 point outburst against the Raiders, they've scored only two offensive touchdowns in their past three games. That's led to the benching of Caleb Hanie and the elevation of Josh McCown to starter. Even with Cutler and Forte, the Bears only managed 3 points in their last game at Lambeau Field.
Rodgers had a good game when the Packers beat the Bears in Chicago back in September. While the Chiefs put a lot of man pressure on the receivers, that's not like the Cover-2 coached by Lovie Smith. It wasn't a new formula that the Chiefs designed on defense, but a scheme that had been tried and failed by other teams. I wouldn't expect the Bears to make a drastic change on defense because the Chiefs plan worked. Instead, they'll rely on Julius Peppers to provide the rush, and try to force Rodgers into mistakes.
Packers 27, Bears 10.
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Merry Christmas Packers Fans
I'd sooner get Flacco'd out here in the middle of nowhere than lose face in front of my friends and family.
by steeltech on Dec 25, 2011 10:17 AM CST via mobile reply actions
The mood in Chicago
With the Bears still alive for playoffs, and playing their hated rival, the first 10 pages of the Tribune sports section is all basketball. Quite a statement.
I love wins. Wins are good for the soul.- Barry Alvarez Sep 25, 2005
We expect to win.- Ted Thompson July 28, 2011
by White92 on Dec 25, 2011 10:18 AM CST via iPhone app reply actions
We had to play all our division rivals on the road first this year
From the two games against Minnesota, we can extrapolate what will happen with our remaining two games. In the first road game against Minnesota, we pulled out a 6 point victory in the tougher road environment. Then we played them at home, and the margin of victory jumped to 38 points.
Using this ratio, and assuming that the remaining home games against the Bears and Lions will improve by the same ratio, we can therefore assume that that Packers will defeat the Bears by 63 points and the Lions by 76 points.
It’s math. Don’t try and argue with it.
"If only a face could talk" -- John Madden
by wibrownguy on Dec 25, 2011 10:25 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
...
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
by Clutch16 on Dec 25, 2011 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec for XKCD
Symphony X is the best band that ever was.
by TGPackersTwins19 on Dec 25, 2011 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
What an idiot asshole
he thought it was a linear equation.
13.
Build Lasers And Stuff For More Ownage, Dude!
You one-eyed freak
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
If we only win by 4...
I’ll be kinda disappointed.
13-1
Thanks, Chiefs, thanks a lot.
MattFlynn4StartingQB
with all the injuries,
a W’s a W, in my opinion. especially with home field riding on it. i think we’re in for a tight one. i’d be more than happy to be wrong, though.
What do you have against the ring-tailed lemur?
by threadkiller on Dec 25, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
My guess too...
17-14 or 21-17. Something of the sort. Look for a Defensive score to be the winning margin. Their Front 7 against our OL, is gonna pose problems. And their lack of QB and playmakers against our opportunistic D is a recipe for a low scoring W. But a W nonetheless!
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
I don't know about that Bears score
The Packers defense has had some issues, but that offense looks toothless. They’re just as likely to score on special teams or defense as an offensive touchdown.
The Chiefs were had a toothless offense too before we played them.
Packers' Magic Numbers:
Clinch Division = DONE!!!
Clinch 1st Rd Bye = DONE!!!
Clinch Homefield = 1
And if...
…the Packers manage to lose tonight, or it’s a close game, what are we supposed to think: Two fluke games in a row? Just wait ‘til Clifton, Jennings, et al are back on the field? Things can still be redeemed vs. Detroit? Or is there maybe something more fundamental—and worrisome—at work? If, on the other hand, it’s a Packer blowout against a crippled and clearly inferior opponent, is that really meaningful measuring stick? Short answer: a loss or close game means a great deal, a big win not so much.
Maybe you would have jumped off the cliff.
I certainly wouldn’t have… Didn’t expect a big packer win, but will happily take it.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
by Strohman on Dec 26, 2011 12:12 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Packers' O-Line played a little better than you expected, too. :)
Their Front 7 against our OL, is gonna pose problems.
Cliff? I don’t know about no stinkin’ cliff! :)
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
"Perfection is not attainable,
but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."
"We're nobody's underdog!"
"We don't play scared!"
It all comes down to the patchwork O-line
The reason KC’s approach work where others’ attempts to do the same thing failed was that they turned an already suspect O-line into a terrible one by knocking out 2 OTs and then overwhelming the scrubs. They were then able to get instant pressure on Rodgers with 4 or even 3 rushers. Chicago’s front 7 is even better, so the key to this game will be whether or not the GB coaches figured out how to protect Rodgers with this motley crew. If they did, great. If not, the Packers’ #1 advantage will be nullified, and this will turn into a low-scoring contest between two bad running teams. (The stat that says the Packers have the #6 run offense must be an artifact of teams loading up against the pass. If Chicago can rush 4, play cover-2, and let the LB’s play the run, I don’t expect GB to have a lot of success on the ground).
We’ll see. I think it all comes down to whether and by how much the O-line is better this week than last week.
Screen Game
With back up tackles holding down the perimeter, I hoped the Packers put in extra work on the screen game this week, a play they’ve run abysmally this season. With Starks and Saine likely returning, they’ve got the backs to run it if the linemen can get the timing down. This might work to slow the Bears’ edge rushers over the course of the game.
I’d be very leery of empty backfield sets unless I was in second or third and short. No need to get Rodgers killed tonight.
Nitschke never wore an earring!
Good idea, but...
…it’s hard to run screens successfully against fast, smart linebackers. And Chicago has those.
Upon further review,
they still do!
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
"Perfection is not attainable,
but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."
"We're nobody's underdog!"
"We don't play scared!"
At least you goy Starks playing tonight
Yes the Bears run D is decent, but I could see them playing from behind all night
Fan of the Detroit Tigers ~ Detroit Lions ~ Detroit Red Wings! - No Town Better to be a fan of!
Fantasy: PoD Bench League (PackMules (3-12)) / WIIM Mursak League (Wingedmule (68-69-28))
Restoring the Roar - The 2011 Detroit Lions! (10-5) PLAYOFFS!? You betcha!
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