Examining the 2011 Green Bay Packers: Defensive Line

by Mitchell Maurer on Feb 27, 2011 5:00 AM CST in Green Bay Packers Analysis

One of the longest-running cliches in football is that "the games are won in the trenches". Sure, you can come up with some valid points that make this true, but look at how Green Bay used its defensive linemen during the playoffs. In non-goal line situations, there were more instances of the defense using 2 or 1 down linemen than 3 or more. Capers' ability to use multiple linebackers and defensive backs helped compensate for the relative shortage of healthy linemen, and it worked well enough to win a championship. The Packers won plenty of battles away from the trenches, to be sure.

Next season? If nothing else, Capers will at least have the option of using 3 or 4 down linemen. Let's break them down:

Defensive Ends (6): Justin Harrell, Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, Mike Neal, C.J. Wilson, Jarius Wynn

Defensive Tackles (4): Howard Green, Ryan Pickett, B.J. Raji, Jay Ross (practice squad)

#77 Cullen Jenkins

Player Progression (progress/stagnate/regress from 2010): stagnate

Team Standing (expanded/same/diminshed role): same role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: poor

If/when the labor agreement is settled, the preamble to all our 2011 articles will change from "If there's a 2011 season" to "If Cullen Jenkins stays". He's a crucially important part of this defense, and articles like this hint at his departure.

It's borderline depressing, since Jenkins' transition from above average 4-3 DT to very good 3-4 DE was as important to the defense's success as Charles Woodson. He posted a career high in sacks (7.0) despite missing serious playing time with injuries to his hand and calf. He's probably the best DE on the roster in terms of run support, and his pass rush ability makes him one of two possible 3-down linemen on the roster.

Still, he's past 30, and there's a lot of young talent on the depth chart (most notably Mike Neal). Letting Jenkins walk is a predictable Thompson move: get the same production from a younger player for a fraction of the cost. And Thompson deserves to be trusted...but it'd be nice to keep Cullen around.

#91 Justin Harrell

Player Progression: progress

Team Standing: expanded role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: poor

Now, hear me out. Harrell has natural talent. He just does; you don't get to be a first rounder without talent (unless of course you're Ahmad Carroll). He's had worse luck with injuries than Greg Oden, and was originally drafted as a 4-3 DT, but he at least has the ability to contribute. Without the expectation of doing, well, anything, he might be a surprise rotation guy, especially if Jenkins leaves and Jolly can't play. He has the size and strength to control space and get penetration, and if he has learned anything from watching his teammates and listening to Mike Trgovac, who knows? And hey, if Justin Harrell is the worst of your D-linemen, there's worse problems to have.

Brandon's comment: "
He played fewer snaps on the defensive line (three) than T.J. Lang (five snaps on defense) in 2010. I've written him off." Well played, Brandon.

#97 Johnny Jolly

Player Progression: progress

Team Standing: expanded role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: average to high

Opposite the Jenkins situation, I'm very excited to hear about Johnny Jolly start his journey back into the NFL. With his ongoing legal issues getting resolved, he should be able to focus on football 100%, which could be just what the defense needs. Jolly is a big DE (even by 3-4 standards) at 6'3" and 325 lbs, but a remarkable athlete. One of the better tacklers on the defensive line, he's outstanding in run support, but what's most impressive is his impact on the passing game. Registering 2 sacks in 4 years is usually laughable from a starter, but 17 passes defensed from a lineman is unheard of. In certain cases, a player like Jolly can be even more valuable than a pass rusher; he's able to disrupt the QB's rhythm and timing (not to mention morale) by batting balls down, and the defense doesn't need to bring an extra pass rusher.

So put all that together, plus the fact that he's only 27 and should be hungry to prove himself on an already championship-caliber defense. Not a bad backup plan, not at all.

#96 Mike Neal

Player Progression: progress

Team Standing: expanded role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: high

The 2nd round pick only played in 2 games before going down with an injury, but showed the strength and athleticism demanded from a 3-4 DE. He already was one of the strongest players in the 2010 draft, and the double teams he commanded at Purdue were a testament to his power. Going down with a rib injury was disappointing, but he can hopefully avoid his infamous teammate's fate and stay healthy. If that happens, he's got an excellent chance to reach his potential.

#98 C.J. Wilson

Player Progression: stagnate

Team Standing: same role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: average

Wilson was exactly who we thought he would be: a rookie prospect who might get the chance to contribute if injuries hit. And when the injuries hit, Wilson saw his playing time increase. He managed 18 tackles and a sack in limited minutes, and didn't necessarily have many bad plays. True, he disappeared against more skilled offensive lineman, but what else would you expect from a 7th round pick in his first season? He'll stick around for a while as a member of the rotation, and who knows? Maybe he'll get promoted to a greater role.

#94 Jarius Wynn

Player Progression: stagnate

Team Standing: diminished role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: poor

Like Wilson, Wynn was a young prospect who would only see significant playing time when injuries created opportunities for him. He was actually one of the players who was released during the final round of roster cuts, and was only brought back when Justin Harrell was placed on IR. Wynn's playing time was sporadic during the season, but in the three games where he was called on to contribute (week 7 vs. MIN, week 16 vs. NYG, week 17 vs. CHI), he answered. Wynn's career has already been successful by most standards (having a baby the same day as winning the Super Bowl is pretty great), and although he had a relatively anonymous college career, he still has the size and agility to play DE well.

#95 Howard Green

Player Progression: stagnate

Team Standing: diminished role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: average to poor

To paraphrase Douglas Adams, Howard Green is big. Really, really big. And no play was bigger than the 1st quarter interception Green helped create when he bullied his way through the Pittsburgh line and hit Roethlisberger's arm as the ball was being released. On a larger scale, though, Green was a street free agent picked up mid-season in response to the injury plague that hit the team in 2010. While he played well in a larger role against the New York Jets (his old team) in a run-stopping scheme, his size (6'2", 365 lbs.) limits his effectiveness and durability in the base defense. He's a better athlete than a man his size should be, and might make the team next year, but he will struggle to find playing time with Raji, Pickett, Neal, and (hopefully) Jolly ahead of him.

#79 Ryan Pickett

Player Progression: regress

Team Standing: diminished role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: poor

Pickett is a durable player in a position that usually struggles with injuries, having played between 13-16 games a season for 9 straight years. He remains productive, and knows his role as a space eating 3-4 lineman. He is stout in run support, has average pass rushing skills, and is a veteran leader among the d-line unit. However, Pickett's age (31) and Raji's rise to prominence are the writing on the wall, and Pickett projects to take a step back in 2011. He will likely play out the remainder of his contract (signed through 2013), but his role as a starter is definitely questionable going forward.

#90 B.J. Raji

Player Progression: progress

Team Standing: same role

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: high

The Freezer had his breakout campaign in 2010, registering 39 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a postseason pick-six that led to a thoroughly humorous dance. He's one of the best 3-4 nose tackles in the league, and the best interior lineman in the division not named Ndamukong. He barrels through lineman and lead blockers alike, has excellent pass rush skills, superb tackling technique, and the versatility and conditioning to play as many snaps as his body (or coaches) will allow. The only way he could be better is if he created a rivalry against his Detroit counterpart and strove to outplay the boy named Suh. And that's not completely out of the question.

Jay Ross

Player Progression: who?

Team Standing: huh?

Likelihood of Long-Term Retention: Maybe if everybody else on this list gets hurt.

* * *

Defensive line was the position on defense with the least amount of focus on it going into 2010. Everyone was unsure of the depth at cornerback and linebacker, but we regularly lauded the fact that the team collected a deep group of versatile linemen. After the injuries and suspensions hit, the unit was saved by two things: Raji's breakout year and Capers' continued schematic creativity.

Now? The group looks even deeper than before. With Mike Neal, Johnny Jolly, and even Justin Harrell making comebacks, it's like we're getting three fresh draftees just by getting them out of the trainer's room or off probation.

The biggest question is the status of Cullen Jenkins. If he stays, then this line goes from merely good to great and one of the deepest units in the entire league. Retaining Jenkins allows the team to play their base set more than just 25% of the time without losing the threat of a pass rush. It would allow the line to rotate Neal and Jolly in whenever the situation called for it, keeping all five top linemen fresher. Our goal-line defense would be absolutely stacked, with Jenkins-Raji-Green-Pickett-Jolly up front.

On the flip side, his departure would create a huge question mark as to which end will be asked to step up the most. It would influence Capers towards running more of the hybrid 2-down linemen schemes, which is vulnerable to the run. When they do run the base defense, my money is on a starting trio of Raji-Pickett-Neal, at least until Jolly is back and in football shape.

All things considered, the APC staff assigned the defensive line a grade of not particularly important to address. The line is already going to be solid with who's guaranteed to be on the roster in 2011; this article from Pro Football Focus doles out high praise to Raji and Neal particularly. The only real choice to make is whether or not to re-sign Jenkins. If he walks, it's probable that Thompson looks at a late-round player to add to the rotation. But that'll be the extent of it.

Or will it? Poll!

Poll

How important is it for the Packers' front office to improve or address the Defensive Line positions this offseason?

Extremely Important

89 votes

Important

301 votes

Not Particularly Important

227 votes

Non-Issue

42 votes

659 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 64 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

Is it just me,

or does Pickett, in that picture, look as wide as Harrell and Green combined?

That glass is flowing over!

"It's a great day to be great, baby!"

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

by NorthStarr on Feb 27, 2011 6:36 AM CST reply actions

Wrote that before actually reading the article.

I mean, you may think that Green is big, but judging by that photo, that’s just peanuts compared to Pickett!
(See? I can quote the late Mr. Adams, too.)

Life. Don’t talk to R4F about life.

That glass is flowing over!

"It's a great day to be great, baby!"

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

by NorthStarr on Feb 27, 2011 6:49 AM CST up reply actions

That's Ronald Talley in the picture.

The picture is from Training Camp. Green wasn’t signed until midseason. Talley is nearly 100 lbs lighter than Green.

"What Would Jesus Do? You're damn right he'd do a wheelie" ~ Daniel Tosh

by stempke on Feb 27, 2011 10:52 AM CST up reply actions

ok

That glass is flowing over!

"It's a great day to be great, baby!"

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

by NorthStarr on Feb 27, 2011 2:43 PM CST up reply actions

You guys are high....

… if Jenkins walks they need to make a move on the DL. It may only be a late round pick because that’s just how Thompson rolls, but they need a player there. You’re counting on Neal to stay healthy, Jolly to get reinstated (he hasn’t been yet) and then be productive (after a year off) and you’re even hoping for Harrell to do something he’s never, ever shown any ability to do: play more than 50 snaps without getting hurt. And unicorns might fly out of my *.

That said, we need more Mitchell M articles around here. I’ve always liked his stuff.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 27, 2011 7:52 AM CST reply actions

+1

I’m worried about the DL without Jenkins. Seems like a lot of guys are undervaluing what he brings to the table for us. If you ask me, he’s our best DL — yes, better then Raji. He is stout against the run, but more importantly, he’s probably the best 5 technique guy in the league. Having he and Mattews on opposite sides is a nightmare for opposing OL’s. I do like Neal’s pass rushing ability but I think it’d be kinda crazy to just assume that he can step in and fill Jenkins role within the defense. And even if Jolly can be productive, we know he won’t provide a thing in terms of a pass rush. He’s basically the exact same player as Pickett. Just a big body, who can hold his ground, and plug up the gaps.

I think drafting a DE like Watt or Heyward would be wise if we lose Jenkins. Either of those guys could be brought along somewhat slowly, and then could replace Pickett, which will probably need to happen in 2-3 years.

Fire Slocum

by packallday555 on Feb 27, 2011 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

Passes Defensed

In some regard you are correct about Jolly being similar to Pickett.. At least against the run! But you have to remember all the passes Jolly defensed in the 2 season he played alot for us! Just in ‘09 alone I believe he had 11 or 12 passes defensed! Thats an incredible number! He may not have the glory stat of sacks, but make no mistake, all those passes defensed, all those batted balls had a very similar impact as a sack! Don’t make the mistake of dismissing that aspect of his game… And it wasn’t just a coincidence or from the fact that he simply didn’t get penetration. He has a knack for getting to the QB in his own way and I think your totally undervaluing it, if not ignoring it or writing it off as a lack of ability!!!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 1:28 PM CST up reply actions

I’ll take a guy who can register 6-8 sacks a year though over a guy who is good at batting balls, which Jolly has to do because he can rarely get anywhere near the QB. According to ESPN, he had 10 passes defensed in 2009, and in his other 3 seasons of his career he never had more then 3. Who is to say that he’ll continue to bat 6-10 passes a year? He’s also only got 2 sacks in his 4 year career.

He was very good in 2009 for sure, but not at the same stuff that Jenkins excels at. We’re going to lose a lot of pass rush from Jenkins, and if Neal can’t step up and take on that role I think we’re going to be hurting. Because we know that guys like Pickett and Jolly can’t take on that role, and I’d be pretty confident that Wilson can’t either.\

Like I said, if one of the top DE’s is there at #32, it’d be smart to take him. You can never have enough DL depth, and with Pickett getting older, we’ll need another guy to throw into the rotation anyway.

Fire Slocum

by packallday555 on Feb 27, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs

This.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 27, 2011 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

I would say 11 or 12 passes defensed are about the equivalent of 6 sacks!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 2:56 PM CST up reply actions

I suppose I could get on board with that, though a sack, in most cases is a drive killer. A pass defended is essentially just an incomplete pass. Though, a lot of the time incomplete passes come on third downs so they can be drive killers at times too.

My only thing is, is it realistic to think that he can bat down 10 passes again? I say probably not just because he’s never had more then 3 in any other season but maybe it’s something he just figured out in 2009. I guess we don’t really know but I’d be much more comfortable if we get another 5 technique guy who can rush the passer.

Fire Slocum

by packallday555 on Feb 27, 2011 3:05 PM CST up reply actions

12 passes defended are the equivalent of 6 sacks?

I can’t agree with that.

Passes batted at the line of scrimmage don’t make the quarterback feel physical pain. They don’t make the QB weary to drop back next time. They don’t make the QB hurry a pass that turns into a an incomplete or an interception.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 12:22 AM CST up reply actions

They lack the hit on the QB, but they can get in the QB's head...

Make him think more about his release point, make him focus on getting the ball past the guy w/ the long arms! They don’t have the punishment factor, but they can still disrupt the QB and change his focus a little! I stand by my estimate…

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 2:47 AM CST up reply actions

And occassionally they led to interceptions, which Jolly also has made…

by The Delivery Guy on Feb 28, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions

+1

and loss of yds. Maybe take them out of FG range and force a punt.

by bigbill992001 on Feb 28, 2011 5:08 AM CST up reply actions

Very much agree and Rec'd

Jolly had a good year in 09 in the sense of batting down passes, but was that a result of his skills or just good luck in being in the right place at the right time? It’s like my old coach always told me, “If you can’t get off your blocker, get your eyes locked on the QB and prepare to knock down the pass.” The point is this: Is Jolly batting down passes through luck combined with the fact that he can’t shed blocks or is he really that good? 1 good year in batting down passes is hardly convincing. He’s decent for the base 3-4 scheme, but I don’t want him in on passing downs if guys like CJ Wilson and Jarius Wynn have the ability to get after the QB, I want them in there over Jolly.

Superbowl Champs Baby!!!!!

13 World Championships, soon to be 14 after next season...GUARANTEED!!!!!

Nuff said....

by Jabooty on Feb 27, 2011 9:13 PM CST up reply actions

Jenkins

I agree 100%! We need to keep Jenkins. I also agree that he is under
appreciated for the amount of disruption and havoc he causes opposing
offenses. He is in the backfield nearly every play except for an occasional
drop back (Raji style) to disrupt a slant route. If we keep him with present and
returning company, our D-line will be nearly formidable.

We need to try to retain him if any way possible.

BJK

by Crotext on Feb 27, 2011 7:03 PM CST up reply actions

Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening at all. It was telling that we didn’t sign him to an extension during the season, and the comments he made the other day certainly indicate that he feels like he’s gone — and that he actually might think that, that’s a good thing. We just need to make sure that we can somehow replace what he brought to the table otherwise our pass rush might take a hit.

Fire Slocum

by packallday555 on Feb 27, 2011 8:53 PM CST up reply actions

telling that we didn’t sign him to an extension

To me the telling part is not that they didn’t sign him… But that when Jenkins agent contacted the Packers about an extension they didn’t even enter into negotiating! THAT is telling!!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 9:01 PM CST up reply actions

Jenkins will probably get a big deal from a 4-3 team… there is a definate lack of quality 4-3 end in the league at the moment. That said this draft is supposed to be deep in DE’s for both the 4-3 and 3-4… Ted’s probably already in love with some kid from Whatsamatter U. and pencilled him in as a 6th round pick.

by The Delivery Guy on Feb 28, 2011 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

I'd love to keep Jenkins too

You don’t find many 3-4 DEs who can scare QBs on a consistent basis. Even if Mike Neal turns into a good pass-rushing DE I’d still want to keep Jenkins (imagine a pass rush featuring Raji, Jenkins, CM3 and an improved Neal). Even if it meant cutting Pickett, I’d still keep Jenkins.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 12:33 AM CST up reply actions

I said during the season we should trade Pickett

So we could afford to keep Jenkins… I knew it was the only way of keeping him! All I got for my trouble was alot of people yelling at me and calling me crazy for wanting to trade Pickett. Besides its not like Pickett isn’t replacable by Raji at NT, Jolly or Green at DE… Yet I got run thru the ringer… By alot of people on this site, quite possibly you included! And now you want to release him!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 2:52 AM CST up reply actions

And 3-4 NTs are not a dime a dozen

Even an aging Pickett has to be worth something in this sense because as seen last year, he can man the NT spot just fine; although Raji does that even better in our case.

Green Bay Packers- Super Bowl 45 Champions, Way to make Lambeau and Lombardi Proud

by tkiller314 on Feb 28, 2011 7:21 AM CST up reply actions

Exacty...

Very few guys can play 34 NT well enough to not cause the team to be looking for an upgrade! Pickett can do that, even if he may not have more than another 4 or 5 years left.

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 7:37 AM CST up reply actions

wait

i thought you wanted to trade RP?

by bigbill992001 on Feb 28, 2011 6:19 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, I do... We happen to have 3 of them.

Green could play NT similarly to Pickett. Green and Jolly can play DE as well as Pickett. And he doesn’t play in nickel/passing downs!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 8:20 PM CST up reply actions

Don't think it was me who put you "thru the ringer"

Unless you were claiming we’d get a good pick for Pickett. I think we’d be lucky to get a 4th, but I’d take it if it meant keeping Jenkins.

And who does the yelling on this site? Most of that is done by REVENGE4FAVRE, the only commenter I can think of whose name is in all caps.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

Don't know who it was...

Know we’ve had disagreements and the post wasn’t directed towards you in particular, could have been others. I said that w/ Picketts salary, and the ability of others to do what he does, means that he was expendable. And one way we could use his savings was on Jenkins. Especially if Jolly returns, which I think is likely! Don’t care really about the round, 3rd or 4th maybe even 5th. Pickett has a skill set that not many do, being able to play 34 NT does make him a commodity, his age and salary push the pick lower!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions

what's Jolly's salary next yr.?

assuming he does come back.

by bigbill992001 on Feb 28, 2011 6:21 PM CST up reply actions

He signed his restricted FA tender for about 2.5M

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 8:20 PM CST up reply actions

What about KINGRODGERS!?!?!?

13.

by Wiedmann on Feb 28, 2011 2:40 PM CST up reply actions

You are seriously underestimating..

Justin Harrell

I love wins. Wins are good for the soul.- Barry Alvarez Sep 25, 2005

by White92 on Feb 28, 2011 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

I don't know

Losing Jenkins would be a serious setback. Ted Simmons has a point that Neal, Jolly and Harrell coming back are not guaranteed to fill his spot effectively. Neal was a rookie, so who knows how he’ll do. Jolly, I’m not worried about. I personally feel his suspension was a bit harsh, even with his previous drug issues. I don’t think it affected his play in 2009 or 2008, which I think was quite solid. I’m agreeing with Mitchell M that he’ll be back in full force and excited to play for his team that just won it all, but we’ll have to see. I think as long as he plays at all like he did previous to his suspension, the d-line will have a solid rock. At least a body so TJ Lang doesn t have to come in and get pancaked(no offense TJ).

But, I would say, in the draft, early rounds, this team should concentrate on Offensive tackle, Outside Linebacker and Wide Receiver.

And my two cents is over.

by stallis on Feb 27, 2011 8:41 AM CST reply actions

Wilson

I’m curious why CJ Wilson’s player progression is Stagnate? That makes No sense… The guy was a rookie last year coming from a small school, in only makes sense he was going to struggle to make plays against NFL OL… But aren’t the Packers HC and GM intent on developing their players? And isn’t Wilson just now about to enter his 2nd NFL season? And isn’t it true that young players make their largest improvements from year 1 to 2 and then year 2 to 3? So tell me exactly what you see that makes you think he is stagnant and incapable of progressing into at least a good backup and quite possible into a Nickel pass rusher and maybe even into a starting NFL DE! Cuz I think he has the ability to become all of those things!!! He is not just bottom of the rung, soon to be released camp fodder!!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 11:37 AM CST reply actions 2 recs

agreed

by Jeigh AK on Feb 27, 2011 1:06 PM CST up reply actions

You are correct. If Wilson stagnates it's because of his lack of motivation. Won't happen.

by marcopo on Feb 27, 2011 5:03 PM CST up reply actions

Much agreed and well said!

Superbowl Champs Baby!!!!!

13 World Championships, soon to be 14 after next season...GUARANTEED!!!!!

Nuff said....

by Jabooty on Feb 27, 2011 9:15 PM CST up reply actions

He already IS a good backup

and the staff didn’t really see him progressing further than that this season. That’s why we agreed on “stagnate”.

If we get the same performance from Wilson in 2011 that we did in 2010, we should be content.

"Finished putting together an Excel spreadsheet at work? BELT. Finally managed to open that uncooperative jar of mayonnaise? BELT. We're all champions in our own ways, my friends." - Frank Madden, BrewHoop

by Mitchell Maurer on Feb 27, 2011 11:11 PM CST up reply actions

During the season is NOT when guys make progress!

They make it in the offseason… In the OTA’s, in the wt room, getting help learning the techniques and fundamentals to get better! All of that doesn’t happen during the season. It happens in individual meetings w/ coachs, in non-paddeed work on the basics! Coachs don’t have time for that during the season! To busy gameplanning, every week!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 2:57 AM CST up reply actions

Was thinking the same thing as I came across that

How does Neal, who was hurt most of the year, progress, while Wilson – who got valuable playing experience at the pro level, stagnates?

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 12:35 AM CST up reply actions

I can't speak for the other guys,

but to me, it comes down to talent. Neal was a 2nd round pick, Wilson was a 7th. The progression is also relative to a player’s 2010 performance: unless Neal gets hurt again, he’s almost a lock to play better (because he’ll simply be playing). Wilson was healthy and had a limited impact overall, and I predict his impact will be similarly limited next season.

But hey, I’d be OK with being wrong and having Wilson be the one to fill Jenkins’ void. Another Thompson miracle!

by Mitchell Maurer on Feb 28, 2011 8:05 AM CST up reply actions

What does Neal starting have to do w/ Wilson not progressing or developing as a player!

THat makes no sense… Wilson’s limited impact on the season was due to his small school status as much as anything else! Did you know he did more bench reps at the combine than Neal, who is SOOO strong? He also was a good/great pass rusher at his level of competition! Not saying he is better than Neal, but that he had farther to go to become a good player! And your ignoring the Packers whole draft and develop philosophy. Wilson also was able from what I heard to gain weight during the season and get near the 300 lb mark… That in itself is progress! I think you need to admit you were wrong!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 9:46 AM CST up reply actions

I'd be fine with being wrong,

and if/when Wilson shows off his growth from year 1 to year 2, I’ll hold a parade dedicated to how I underestimated his development.

But at this stage in the offseason, I stand by my evaluation. We haven’t seen enough yet.

/imagines what would have happened had I put “regress”
//cries

by Mitchell Maurer on Feb 28, 2011 9:59 AM CST up reply actions

Just curious...

You said… “the staff didn’t really see him progressing further than that this season.” I would be very interested in reading this article. Got a link? I’m guessing you don’t! read you made it up!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

"The Staff" = "APC Writers"

Not the coaching staff.

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."

by GoGregGo on Feb 28, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions

Sounds more like coaching staff to me...

Could be wrong.

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions

He already IS a good backup and the staff didn’t really see him progressing further than that this season. That’s why we agreed on "stagnate".

I think that’s pretty clearly the writing staff.

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."

by GoGregGo on Feb 28, 2011 1:15 PM CST up reply actions

K My mistake...

Doesn’t change the fact that stagnate is a poor choice for him! I guess Driver was a stagnate to regress by that measure. He didn’t do a thing till his 3rd or 4th season! Lets let the coaches do their thing, if they get a chance to, before saying his development is stagnant. Especially considering the packers draft and develep philosophy!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 1:27 PM CST up reply actions

Go off the deep end much?

Even when you admit a mistake you still manage to tell everyone else how wrong they are in the same paragraph.

I recommended your first post on this, but now you’ve got me disagreeing with you because you’ve taken your argument too far. Of course, the clarification on progress/stagnate/regress as expectation for next season changes it a little bit. I thought it was more “did they progress as the season went on” question. I think a lot of Packers this year showed that progression during the season is quite possible – Charlie Peprah, for example, A.J. Hawk, and even Raji all seemed to get better as the season went on.

While I still disagree with the progress/stagnate designations for Neal/Wilson, it’s mostly because I think Wilson will significantly improve next year. But at this point I’m thinking Mike Trgovac could turn me into an NFL-caliber D-lineman.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 1:58 PM CST up reply actions

What We Know

The only certainty is that teams change every year. Personally, I’d like Jenkins back, but will he take a serious paycheck loss (based on his potential FMV) to stay a Packer? Probably not. But the team will survive and prosper without him. Perhaps, the ONLY one not in that catagory is Rodgers.

by marcopo on Feb 27, 2011 2:06 PM CST reply actions

Combine Miscellany

I’ve seen too many drafts to get too excited anymore. I’ve read all the scouting reports that promise greatness. Notwithstanding all the hype these days, the combine provides very little aid to serious teams. What it does is provide a nifty database of the “measurables”. It also allows mini-interviews of lots of players at a convenient location. The real stuff is on film and real life interviews of both the players and those who know him. Physically, how much difference is there in terms of usable measurables between a first rounder and a sixth rounder? How good are the scouts in terms of measuring heart and desire?

For the last two years the leading rushers in the NFL have been late or no rounders. The touted and measured 1st rounders have been only so so. I believe the reason Thompson has fared so well is he finds guys who will both fit in and are coachable. No prima donnas are allowed. The list of guys who have done well and were drafted lo or no is legion. I get excited when a guy like Shields is found.

by marcopo on Feb 27, 2011 5:26 PM CST reply actions

For the most part this seems to be true

Interviews are what the teams look forward to. Most of the guys have college tape which will be used to find their value. There may be a couple people who really use the combine to get their name out there or help their stock just like a couple may fall as a result of poor showing or interviews, but mostly its just a nice little week long wrap up with everyone in one place to get any last information you need on them.

Its more exciting for us fans who have nothing better to do with no football and high expectations/dreams for our team next year!

by PhoenicianPakFan on Feb 27, 2011 5:56 PM CST up reply actions

combine provides very little aid to serious teams

I can assure you the teams take it very seriously! Not the workouts… Those are mostly to confirm what they have already seen on tape. But the interviews are extremely important to the teams! The medical reports from the medical testing is very important to the teams! Even the Wonderlic tests provide valuable info on some players…

The physical tests like the 40, shuttle and wt lifting is almost entirely for the fans. To the teams its only confirming what teams already know about a players speed, quickness and strength and rank them in those categories… But rest assured the teams take it very seriously!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 6:52 PM CST up reply actions

Didn't Thompson

basically say last year that, after all the shifting of players on their draft board is finished, and everything finally settles, that his board generally comes out of the combine not too much different than it was going in?
Seem to remember reading that somewhere last year.

That glass is flowing over!

"It's a great day to be great, baby!"

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

by NorthStarr on Feb 28, 2011 3:22 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah he said that...

The real reason for the combine from a team perspective is the medical tests first and foremost, interviews both formal and informal, and finally any psychological tests they might use! The physical tests mean little to the teams, at least the teams that scout very well!!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 28, 2011 7:03 AM CST up reply actions

I think it helps small school players

Some have to prove that their speed is real, not just in relation to the level of competition.

Or hurts a few top-level players who don’t exhibit good numbers, such as Emmit Smith.

But overall, the numbers probably don’t change things a whole lot. In years past it seemed that many teams overreacted to some combine numbers, but excitement over combine numbers seems to have tempered in recent years. It might move players a few spots but it generally won’t change the round most players are drafted in. I think Bruce Campbell showed that last year with great numbers, then being drafted in the 4th anyway (by the Raiders, of course). And Chris Johnson went from a projected 2nd rounder to a 1st rounder with his 4.24 40. Not a huge jump, but it helped him a bit.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 2:04 PM CST up reply actions

Regarding your comment about leading rushers. Arian Foster actually appears to be an anomaly, a 1st Round Pick has lead the league in all but 3 years since 1999

1999 – Edgerrin James: 1st Round Pick
2000 – Edgerrin James: 1st Round Pick
2001 – Priest Holmes: Undrafted
2002 – Ricky Williams: 1st Round Pick
2003 – Jamal Lewis: 1st Round Pick
2004 – Curtis Martin: 3rd Round Pick
2005 – Shaun Alexander: 1st Round Pick
2006 – LaDanian Tomlinson: 1st Rond Pick
2007 – LaDanian Tomlinson: 1st Round Pick
2008 – Adrian Peterson: 1st Round Pick
2009 – Chris Johnson: 1st Round Pick
2010 – Arian Foster: Undrafted

"What Would Jesus Do? You're damn right he'd do a wheelie" ~ Daniel Tosh

by stempke on Feb 28, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions

I agree the teams take it seriously. Further, as I said, the interviews are the most value. Also remember that the combine interviews are about 12 min long. If a team in interested in a certain player, they do a far more in depth investigation, especially if there are any “red flags”.

by marcopo on Feb 27, 2011 7:26 PM CST reply actions

Its not just the official interviews..

Theres also alot of unofficial interviews when team personnel catch players in hotel lobies and talk to them there! Its alot less formal and you can gain alot more insight into the player than a scripted response in a “official” interview!

The psychology testing they do is something that also is taken pretty seriously!

You've been Stroh'd™!!!

by Strohman on Feb 27, 2011 9:04 PM CST up reply actions

I think we need to keep Jenkins

but, that’s gonna be next to impossible. We’re gonna depend on Neal and Wilson and prolly Green. There’s no guarantee that Jolly will be his old self. Has he kept up any kind of conditioning? After this yr. I have no doubt that Capers will find a way to use the guys we have to the fullest. If all goes well, Neal picks up where he left off, Jolly is allowed to play and picks up where he left off, Pickett is solid again, Raji at least plays as well as this yr., Wilson and/or Green show that they can contribute on a reg. basis, then all is well on the Dline. If not, then we miss Jenkins a lot more than he misses GB. Harrell?………forget it. IF, and that’s a big IF, he ever plays and produces regularly………..well, that’s just icing. But, I say give his roster spot to someone that might contribute.

by bigbill992001 on Feb 27, 2011 7:29 PM CST reply actions

When we IR him, there'll be a spot open.

13.

by Wiedmann on Feb 27, 2011 7:59 PM CST up reply actions

LOL

by bigbill992001 on Feb 28, 2011 5:15 AM CST up reply actions

This is Justin Harrell's true value

He allows TT to add a needed player a few games into the season. Basically, he holds a roster spot that opens up in a few weeks.

I do hope he can get and stay healthy, but I’m not holding out much hope anymore.

53 Bears, 1 Cup

by I voted for Kodos on Feb 28, 2011 2:05 PM CST up reply actions

you can never have enough good lineman

and that’s why I voted “Important.” With Raji on board we’re in pretty decent shape all told. Still, Pickett’s getting up there and we can’t expect Jolly to just step in after a year off. Neal’s a bit of a question mark, and the rest of the guys aren’t all that impressive individually, but in this D, the whole has thusfar been greater than the sum of its parts. A good to great 3-4 DE would be a very nice addition and would give us a lot more flexibility on D.

by swilldog on Feb 28, 2011 4:04 PM CST reply actions