Should Aaron Rodgers Throw It Deep?
by Brandon on May 11, 2011 7:00 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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Unlike when the Green Bay Packers had a different starting quarterback, I never cringe when QB Aaron Rodgers decides to throw it deep. His completion percentage is low, but it's a low risk/high reward play. And he's pretty good at it. Pro Football Focus crunches the numbers:
In numbers on their own (and this includes the playoffs) nobody threw downfield more often than Peyton Manning. His 95 throws of more than 20 yards trumped Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers (both with 86), while Matt Hasselbeck and Drew Brees (both 76) rounded out the top five. Most interesting is the fact that only one of these guys finished with a completion percentage of over 40% when going deep. We’ll get to that guy in a bit.
"That guy" mentioned above isn't Rodgers. Go click on the link if you're curious, and go click on it anyway because it's an interesting article. But give yourself a few minutes to read it because it looks at every quarterback, and there's a lot of detail to sift through.
The take away on Rodgers is that no one completed more passes thrown longer than 20 yards in 2010. He did while having the 10th best completion percentage on such throws. He was close to average on the percentage of times he threw it deep, and the percentage he was intercepted. Overall, that makes him one of the best at throwing the deep ball.
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hes awesome throwing deep
i seem to recall a couple of really good deep balls that should have been caught by our receivers…Greg Jennings against Detroit is one that comes to mind that ended up getting picked off
I love me some Aaron Rodgers
But I don’t understand this logic. If he’s average in completion % and interception % on deep throws…how is he one of the best? Leading the league in such completions is subsumed by the fact that is completion% is a little above average.
Rodgers is undeniably a top 5 QB ( I say top 3), but the number indicate that he is simply a slightly above average thrower of the deep ball, not one of the best.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Stats are like bikinis
They show every but the essencial.
It’s a good read, but it doesn’t show some critical information.
1) It doesn’t take into account drops. I specifically remember 2 such occasions from Greg Jennings and Donald Driver that were placed perfectly and actually ended up being interceptions.
2) It doesn’t put into context WHEN they threw it. Why do I say that? Because players that attempted less deep throws usually only attempt it when it’s more probable to get a completion (aka when the receiver is wide open). Vince Young, the most “accurate” player, only tried 35 times. Rodgers tried 86. That’s almost 3 times more. Without looking at each try, it’s much more likely that Young attempted easier passes than Rodgers, because he attempted much less.
Without those datas, it’s hard to make a case who is better at throwing downfield.
"IT IS TIME"
There is a lot wrong here
1. It doesn’t take into account drops, but it also doesn’t take into account blown coverage or spectacular catches off of bad balls (of which I can think of at least two). It also doesn’t take into account dropped interceptions.
2. Why is it a bad thing to throw less when you are completing at a higher percentage? Also, Young threw less because a) he didn’t play as much and b) he played in a run-oriented system that simply didn’t pass as much. But the overall quantity doesn’t matter much once you pass a certain threshold (about 25 in this case)…it’s the average that does.
Rodgers is a middle-of-the-road deep ball thrower. Couple that with his excellent ability on underneath routes and his escape ability, and you get a top 3 QB.
There are two types of people who say stats can deceive you: those who don’t understand stats and those who don’t want to believe what the stats say. Stats only deceive you when you take them out of context (e.g., a low batting average can be deceiving if the player still has a high on base percentage due to walks).
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
1) So it doesn’t take into account a lot of things. Obviously, this makes them accurate…
2) You are stabilishing this threshold based on what exactly? Yes, Young didn’t play as much, but saying that he only threw as much because of a run-oriented system is guesswork. You have no idea how many times a deep ball was called in those offenses. All you know is that Rodgers tried 3 times more than Young.
You are absolutely right that stats deceive you when you take them out of context. This is one such case. You don’t know how or why they threw each and every pass, you don’t know what happened in that play. You don’t know if it was an easy throw or not, if it was an accurate throw or not. And you can’t apply the law of average when one subject attempts 3 times more than the other in completely different schemes. All you know is how many times they attempted a throw and if the throw was sucessful or not.
If you think all long throws are the same and that a completion or a non-completion indicates how accurate one is, you are fooling yourself.
Football is not baseball. Batting average is not the same as a pass completion. A player hitting a baseball depends on the pitcher and the hitter. A pass being completed depends on the protection working, the quarterback being accurate, the receiver running the right route and making the catch and what kind of coverage the defense is working.
"IT IS TIME"
Agree to disagree then
But the numbers clearly indicate Rodgers is a slightly above average deep passer.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Are there any great deep passers?
Just curious. I wonder who the best deep ball passer is in the league and why is it that way?
by PhoenicianPakFan on May 11, 2011 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
From what I've read...
No link sorry, I’ll get that out of the way right off the bat… Rodgers is one of the best in the NFL. Accuracy is important on a deep ball, but so is trajectory. Rodgers throws his deep ball w/ nearly perfect trajectory in that he gets some air under it and is able to drop the ball over the DB’s outstretched hand and into the recievers when its tightly covered. Manning, Brady and RIvers are also pretty good at it. I think its pretty hard to judge just based on stats. Having tall WR like Moss certainly helped Brady alot. Rodgers doesn’t have that advantage since none of our WR are tall amd athletic enough to adjust to the ball while in the air like Moss does. Finley was that guy for us till he got hurt.
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Rodgers
It’s important to understand that Rodgers has frequently been regarded as one of the best deep passers because of his accuracy. Unfortunately, stats can be very deceiving, and they are perhaps most deceiving with Rodgers. Take a look at this video. Are you going to stand by the stat sheet on this one? Yup, it’s an interception and was all Rodgers’ fault, right? Of course not. Unfortunately for us, these plays happened on several occasions, mostly from James Jones though with his frequent drops. Had this interception in the linked video been caught by Jennings, Green Bay would have won and the stat sheet would look a lot different with that 1 interception off. Now factor in James Jones frequent drops (most noticably in the Wild Card Game against Philly), and I wonder how the stats would look had Jones caught at least half of those perfectly placed passes.
Again, Rodgers is widely regarded as one of the best deep passers, and the reasons go beyond what the stat sheet show.
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Nuff said....
Don't compare him to some imaginary perfect QB.
Compare him to the other QBs in the league.
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Two details they don't explain
1. Does “throwing it deep” mean that the ball traveled 20+ yds past the line of scrimmage in the air? Or does an Joe-Montana-special (4 yd slant followed by an 80-yd RAC) count? Obviously short incompletions wouldn’t count, and presumably, they only mean to focus on balls in the air for more than 20yds, but it’s not obvious that they filtered out long pass plays that were from short throws.
2. Do they toss out balls that were thrown away intentionally? Usually, those go to the sideline and not 20 yds downfield, but sometimes they’re deep balls, especially out of the back of the endzone. It’s clear that they wouldn’t want to count those, but the article doesn’t say explicitly that such throwaways were taken out.
Long ball...
meh. I like his mix of long ball and shorter routs. I do get frustrated by the 3rd and 2 play that is thrown 40 yds for an incomplete pass. That being said, I liked it to Jordy Nelson in the SB! Long story short, keep on throwin’ it Aaron!
Life is too short to drink bad coffee...
Same here
They did tend to throw it deep way too often for my likings on 3rd and short. I wish they would have saved more of those for 1st and 2nd downs and just go for the check down on 3rd. But, I’m not the HC, so it’s not really my call to make. I think that if they did tend to throw it deeper less often, there would be a probability of more completions just because the defense wouldn’t be expecting it nearly as much
by TXPackerBacker on May 11, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I like it when they take a shot deep.
It stretches the defense vertically, which even if its not completed opens up alot of underneath stuff. Rodgers throws a great deep ball and doesn’t put it up for grabs when he throws deep. He puts it where only his reciever can catch it. And you can’t run a WCO very well when the D is loading up the short zones and playing inside technique on the corners to take away the slants and post patterns.
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
Yup, agreed
This is how I feel. With Favre, I would sometimes cringe when he went deep… but with Rodgers, I feel that it will not be up for grabs in double coverage, it will be either a long completion or an overthrow incompletion.
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by Chief Oshkosh on May 11, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
A good offensive weapon; just not the main one.
The Pack have a good set of yards-after-the-catch receivers, but they’re quicker/more reliable receivers in short range. Aaron’s strength is more likely his judgement – he doesn’t try threading the needle that often. If someone’s got room over the top, he does a pretty good job of finding them. (When he has time.)
It would be great if the Packers had a taller receiver that could catch after those long range sprints consistently. Getting it into teams mind that not only could the Pack go deep, but they inevitably will and often – it would totally stretch the defense and make the underneath game even that much more efficient.
Sucks that there are no FA operations at present. Lots of questions…
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It would be great if the Packers had a taller receiver that could catch after those long range sprints consistently.
Doesn’t Jordy Nelson do that? And Finley?
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by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Finley, yeah but not so much Jordy. The height is usually needed, but being able to catch those deep passes has more to do with body control and jumping ability. Think about Moss, and how he could be running full speed and essentially almost come to a complete stop to be able to get his footing right and jump his highest. I don’t think Nelson has that kind of body control or jumping ability.
Though, it’s pretty damn hard to find a taller receiver who can go up and consistently catch those deep balls because they usually tend to be the best receivers (Johnson, Johnson Jr., Fitzgerald, etc.)
I think guys like Blackmon and Floyd could be those types of players in the draft next season.
Fire Slocum
by packallday555 on May 11, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Answer: no.
Unless it works.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
by GMan83201 on May 11, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
NOOOOOO!!!
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on May 11, 2011 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Yet people complain when we run it with Kuhn on 3rd and short (v. Eagles in playoffs)
Remember that the first SB TD was on a 3rd and short. If he sees something in the defense, let him take his shot. At least till we gain more confidence in our run game.
Thats what I find funny too...
And the same people that complain about running it on 3rd and short are the one it seems who complain about taking a shot downfield on 3rd and short. Seems like it anyway… So I guess we should elimate 2/3 of our offense on 3rd and short? I trust Rodgers to go to the best option on every play. If he goes downfield on 3rd and short, them he must have felt that was the best way to convert the first down. He does have multiple options on every play. If he has 3rd and 2 and he takes a shot down the sideline, that tells me the short zones were filled w/ defenders and he had single coverage and a matchup he liked on the sideline. Trust Rodgers people…
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
it's all about the read- which is why having a great QB like Rodgers is so important
if the safeties bite or are up in the box and you have 1-on-1 matchups downfield with linebackers or mismatches with CBs, then yes you go deep – but that’s on Rodgers to read it and make the right call. We have some guys that can make those plays downfield, but whether they “should” throw them or not is based on Rodgers reading the defense and making the right decision.
We know he has the accuracy!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmZ1uF4VfSs
by rip_city_swagger on May 11, 2011 12:58 PM CDT reply actions
Like I said, those stats don't show it all
Rodgers is one of the better long thrower in the league. His passes have pinpoint accuracy. Just take any game of his career. It’s incredibly rare for him to overthrow a receiver, and he usually puts it right in the basker. Look at the SB as an example, how many deep passes he threw just perfectly? How many passes did his receivers dropped? I’d put him, Rivers and Manning as the better deep throwers in the league.
What I worry with Rodgers is his “touch”. He seems to struggle completing the easiest throws, slants, screens and dumpoffs. I don’t know why, maybe he throws the ball so hard that he simply doesn’t have it. But it’s one of the few areas in his game that needs work. He used to struggle with the 2 minute drill, now he’s great at it. He used to struggle with pocket presence, now he looks like Houdini evading defenders.
Rodgers is his biggest critic, and he works his but off on the things that he’s not great at. That’s what makes him IMHO the best player in the league. He not only has the physical skills and mental awareness to suceed, but he is never satisfied. He’s always working to be the best.
"IT IS TIME"
Ah the old "the stats are wrong...my eyes are right" idea.
Rodgers is a slightly above average deep ball passer. He only had I think 3 deep passes legitimately dropped (i.e., not a situation where a receiver failed to make a spectacular catch). That doesn’t have a big impact on his completion percentage when he’s thrown 86 passes.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
He only had I think 3 deep passes legitimately dropped
You think do you?
Just off the top of my head:
JJ dropped one in the SB
JJ dropped one against Philly in the divisional
JJ dropped one against the Giants
JJ dropped one against the Bears the first game
Jennings dropped one against the Lions
Please stop saying random crap and actually provide some evidence to support your theory…
"IT IS TIME"
For some reason,
you seem to have forgotten about the ones that Driver dropped,
and the ones that Jennings dropped,
AND the ones that Nelson (who dropped two in the Super Bowl) dropped, among others.
You zeroed in only on the drops by Jones (agenda?), who did not even lead the team in drops (as I seem to recall having read somewhere).
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and they ask me to pick up a piece of paper.
You call that job satisfaction?
'Cause, I don't."
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Didn't read your sig before
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Disregard my last posts… It’s all clear now.
"IT IS TIME"
Ugh, could have saved so much time if I just read his sig.
Someone who claims to spew BS on some occasions is just covering for the fact that they really don’t have a clue what they are talking about.
I don't appreciate that. I do know what I'm talking about.
Both in regards to football and in regards to stats.
You asked where the 25 I came up with came from in terms of total attempts. It’s a priori power analysis. Cohen’s D. You need a sample size of at least 25 to have a 95% chance of detecting the accurate effect size (in laymen’s terms the true number in this case being the QB’s deep ball ability). I didn’t pull that number out of my butt.
And I am being honest here. No B.S. Forgot about my sig entirely.
Those drops listed above…2 of them came in the playoffs, which I believe are not included here. That leaves…3! Like I said before. I may be off by 1 or 2, but even so those numbers don’t make a significant difference on completion pecentage (and here I am using a t-test…so I mean statistical significance).
I don’t wish to get into an argument here, especially if you take the “oh, he just doesn’t know what he’s talking about” route. But I do know what I am talking about. I know football and have been a Packer fan since 1993 (when I was 8), and I know stats as a grad student in Experimental Psychology with an emphasis in research methods and statistical analysis.
You may have a different opinion than me, but please don’t lump me in with the trolls and 7th graders who just say unsupported crap and have no real clue what they’re saying.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Ahem...
In numbers on their own (and this includes the playoffs) nobody threw downfield more often than Peyton Manning.
All is vanity.
Okay...whoops
So that’s 5 drops. Not 3. My bad. Still not a significant difference. Receivers dropping throws is not what drops Rodgers in the deep ball rankings.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
I would agree with this.
Its an easy out. He had several in his time that were just misses. To Jennings in AZ in Wild Card game OT comes to mind.
I just wonder if thats not true of all “deep ball passers”…. I mean really how many are considered good at that? Its meant to be low percentage.
by PhoenicianPakFan on May 11, 2011 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Some numbers could be inflated due to extraordinary receivers and their speed/ability to adjust
See: Moss, Randy (not including last year, but he’s the best example I can think of in this regard)
Fitz and Brandon Marshall also qualify!
We really don’t have a WR capable of that who is tall. FInley was our guy till he got hurt last year.
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
If Finley is healthy next year
He really may be the best receiving TE in the NFL. I practically drool thinking about the the receiving tandem of him and Jennings.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
I find that incredibly hard to believe
In light of your signature and that you’re completely disregarding actual play.
Not nly that, how can you say that not counting drops isn’t relevant, in a statistic that only takes into account misses and completions, and has such little sample?
You say that 5 drops in 86 isn’t relevant, but that’s 5,81%.
You add that to Rodgers’ 38,37% completion and it’s 44,18%. Suddenly he’s the 3rd on that list, not 10th.
And I didn’t say he only had 5 deep target drops. I said I only remembered those. If he had 1 more, that would turn his completion percentage to 45,37%, which would put him in 2nd.
You claim that you have expertise in the subject, but it doesn’t seem so, if you don’t think that roughly 6% is relevant to the statistics, when we’re talking about a 7,34% difference between the most accurate passer in that list and Rodgers.
"IT IS TIME"
But how many of those players at the top had receivers drop deep passes?
You can’t adjust Rodgers’ number to where receivers catch all the deep balls and not adjust the other QBs as well. And then you would also have to factor in dropped interceptions. There may be some jostling in the ranks if you do all of that, but I doubt Rodgers would move from 10th to 3rd.
And that’s why the 5 drops isn’t statistically significant. Because while it can make a big difference for Rodgers, it can make just as much of a difference for the other QBs. It’s about sample size and variability.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
You can’t adjust Rodgers’ number to where receivers catch all the deep balls and not adjust the other QBs as well.
EXACTLY!
He didn’t adjust it to anyone, so it’s not valid! That’s what I’m saying the whole time! And it’s not like baseball, where there are 1000 plays, so the law of averages end up balancing it! We’re talking about 1% per drop for Rodgers, and 3% for Young. And I’m talking about only the completions, the percentage is considerably increased when talking about dropped ints.
Those stats do paint some broad picture. Regardless of drops, Vince Young is accurate when throwing downfield, and obviously Matt Cassel isn’t.
But they do not represent if a QB is more accurate than another throwing downfield, because they do not take CRITICAL factors into the situation.
So, if the stats are flawed, and you took the conlcusion that Rodgers isn’t elite based on said stats, what does that mean?
"IT IS TIME"
The stats aren't flawed
I never said that. Variability and sample size is a part of statistics. But with the stats we have we can make a reasonable inference that Rodgers is a slightly above average deep ball passer. They aren’t perfect because Rodgers hasn’t thrown infinity passes, but the sample size is large enough to make inferences.
Rodgers is a terrific pocket presence, is very mobile, and is quite good at underneath routes. He is also a slightly above average passer. That sums up to him being one of the very best QBs in the game.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
I honestly have no idea how can you say that a stat that doesn’t take into account all the factors can lead to any kind of precise conclusion…
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"IT IS TIME"
Ah, reducto as absurdum
We’ve reached that point. I think it’s time to end conversation on this thread and agree to disagree.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
Anybody notice?
That Aaron had the most completions, at 33?
With just 6 interceptions in 86 attempts as well.
The next 2 behind Aaron:
Drew Brees had 32 completions, with 8 interceptions / 76 attempts
Philip Rivers had 29 completions, with 8 interceptions / 68 attempts
NFC North:
Shaun Hill had 15 completions with 5 interceptions / 47 attempts
Jay Cutler had 17 completions with 8 interceptions / 64 attempts
Brett Favre had 15 completions with 2 interceptions / 46 attempts
While Aaron might not have had the best completion percentage, having more successful deep balls and the lowest interception rate (save for BF) (<7% on deep attempts) is game changing. Especially in our division.
No wonder we succeeded without a consistent running game. We were able to use a real deep ball threat instead of a running game to open up the short/mid passing game.
by Dlapine on May 12, 2011 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
He also played more games than any other QB in the NFL last year
since these numbers include postseason and Roethlisberger missed the first 4 games. So him leading the league in attempts and completions isn’t as impressive as it seems. The raw numbers don’t indicate how good he is…it’s the percentages that are a better indicator.
I will not argue though that he was clearly the best deep ball passer in the division.
I dispense B.S. and facts. It is up to you to figure out which is which.
The same argument can be made for the interceptions.
He had fewer interceptions than Brees, Rivers, and Cutler while playing more games. Favre and Hill both had fewer but also played in fewer games than even Rivers. So his total completion percentage isn’t the highest,that is true. But might that be because he took better care with his deep balls so as to avoid INTs? He didn’t try to force it in there if the play wasn’t there.
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