Football Outsiders On The Green Bay Packers
by Brandon on Sep 8, 2011 10:01 AM CDT
in Green Bay Packers Analysis
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The annual Football Outsiders Almanac, the essential guide to the 2011 season, the book that correctly predicted 9 of 12 playoff teams last year, fully updated with post-lockout free agency and trades, is once again available for sale as a pdf document, or as a printed book.
While I find the printed phone book awkward, I prefer having it around to flip through while I'm watching ESPN. And I'm more likely to stumble upon a random page with a book. But I love that the pdf document is almost $10 cheaper (and delivered immediately).
I had the opportunity to ask Mike Tanier a few questions after I read the chapter he wrote on the Green Bay Packers for their 2011 edition.
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Q: James Starks has a respectable regular season DVOA of 6.6%, but that's essentially one regular season game, and he didn't really shine until the playoffs. Did you calculate his performance during the playoffs too?
A: Yes, his DVOA during the playoffs was -1.8%. As much as he is known for shining during the playoffs, he had 25 carries for 66 yards against Atlanta. He was much better in the first week against Philadelphia, which is where the reputation for playoff performance came from. He was pretty good in the Super Bowl too. Of course, the big issue right now is that he has barely participated in the preseason.
Q: Looking at the offensive line stats for 2009 vs. 2010, it looks like the offensive line was worse overall, except in sacks allowed. Does that look like a problem with Bryan Bulaga, or might it help that the Packers are now starting a bigger left guard who could improve their running game to the left side? Could the drop off from Ryan Grant to Brandon Jackson for most of the season must have played a part in it too?
A: Drop-off had a lot to do with it. Jackson brought so little to the table that you cannot blame the offensive line for his 14-for-28 stat lines. Bulaga fared well enough and should develop into his role at right tackle. I am a big Derrick Sherrod fan, but I am told he is struggling in camp, and I don’t think Packers fans can bank on any significant improvement on the offensive line.
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Q: Every year it seems like A.J. Hawk grades out poorly against the run, which I'd think would be the most important role for an inside linebacker, but instead he's gotten a new $30 million contract. But it looks like he and Desmond Bishop (who also got a new contract recently) are pretty good against the pass. Is pass defense really the strength of those two players?
A: Bishop is very sound as a man/zone defender. He’s not an elite player, but he’s a system guy. Hawk knows his assignments, hustles, and gets asked to make a lot of clean-up tackles in the Packers system. You know, with Matthews and Woodson running some crazy stunt and other guys dropping into deep zones, someone has to make the tackle on the draw play or crossing route for an eight-yard gain.
If Hawk were a great player, that would be a four or five-yard gain, but if he were as bad as his detractors claim, it would be a missed tackle and a 30-yard gain. Hawk got a lot of money this year by being the in-house guy with the good sense to renegotiate early, and while he will never be the superstar the team thought they drafted, they needed someone to be sure of with so many free agents on the roster.
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Q: Nick Collins was ranked low on average yards per pass, and he doesn't come across has highly regarded as I expected. My general impression of him is someone who does a great job as a help defender against the long pass. Or maybe that low average is a result of him playing deeper than most safeties. Do you think he's overrated, or showing some signs of slipping from where he was a couple years ago?
A: He’s another system fit. The Packers can be a hard team to evaluate statistically because so many players have odd roles. Collins spends most games in deep center field, so when he is on camera it usually means that the bomb is in the air and it’s up to him to defuse it. We have him making his average pass tackle 13.9 yards down the field, but that’s his role. Of all positions, I am most leery about safeties when it comes to the "overrated/underrated" discussion, because those of us who know what we are looking at don’t get to see enough of safeties, and the people who don’t know what they are looking at sometimes make snap judgments. It's also probably the hardest position to translate advanced stats for.
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Your a pompous Ass!
those of us who know what we are looking at don’t get to see enough of safeties, and the people who don’t know what they are looking at sometimes make snap judgments. It’s also probably the hardest position to translate advanced stats for.
Your a stat junky who probably knows little about the game! Collins isn’t a great S, but he’s a pretty damn good one. A FS role is to play the deep part of the field and prevent anything over his head and Collins is very good in that role. He’s not an “in the box” safety, but he’s also a damn good tackler. You act like you know something we don’t… Go punch a bunch of numbers and get off on your calculator!
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
Slow down so I can keep up.
So you agree and disagree with him?
Collins spends most games in deep center field, so when he is on camera it usually means that the bomb is in the air and it’s up to him to defuse it. We have him making his average pass tackle 13.9 yards down the field, but that’s his role.
by MikeyG76 on Sep 8, 2011 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I highlited what I found objectionable!
If you can’t recognize that, then your just trying to argue!!
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
What he actually said....
That he doesn’t like getting into overrated and underrated discussions of safeties, because we don’t see enough of them to accurately judge their total play, and that people who don’t know any better will just look at a stat like INTs or tackles, which don’t tell the whole story (i.e. Donte Whitner with 140 tackles last year for the Bills, but he still sucks).
Clearly so objectionable! ….. (rolls eyes)……
Angelo: Right….so anyways Jay, I’m sure you understand that we needed to make this move and I wanna wish you the best of luck.
Cutler: (Swoops bangs out of eyes by throwing his head back) Whatever, I don’t need this team or you.
/Leaves in a huff
//Writes bad poetry on his blog
Grossman: What the fuck is Wilford Brimley’s problem?
by Packers3485 on Sep 8, 2011 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know what he said!
And his analysis is fine. I don’t have a problem w/ the analysis. I Do have a problem w/ the part I highlited. If you can’t freakin see that your clearly not paying attention or just being an ass!
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
He led off the statement you posted
By saying that it was hard for him to rate safeties because it’s difficult to always follow them in the available film footage. Then he said in addition to that he feels advanced statistics don’t work well for safeties. All he’s doing is saying that he feels the two best ways to evaluate players (watching film and looking at advanced stats) don’t work very well for safeties. What is so objectionable about that?
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
by GoGregGo on Sep 8, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
the words “to those who know what we are looking at” is a bit of an arrogant statement.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Sep 8, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
sorry, missed a couple words
“to those of us who know what we are looking at” implies that “common” football spectators have no clue. I picture the scientist from the Simpsons taking away the baby’s toy because “she can’t enjoy it on as many levels as he does”.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Sep 8, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
He does analysis for a highly respected publication
I guess I don’t see that statement as that arrogant. Certainly not arrogant enough to elicit the response it did.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
Just because you don't respect it
Doesn’t mean it isn’t respected.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
by GoGregGo on Sep 8, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would say his publication is highly respected....
its one of the more widely referenced and successful, not to mention accurate.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am just saying that advanced statistics don’t apply to football like they do to baseball. It is arrogant to use some statistic to try to tell me how good Nick Collins is and in the same sentence imply that I am not capable of understanding a safeties role.
System fit? Is he saying Collins would be merely average on a different team?
Odd role? Is Collins the only safety in the league that plays a majority of his snaps in the centerfield role? He gets downgraded for doing his job very well?
I’m not saying the guy doesn’t know what he is talking about, I just think he mailed it in on the Collins question.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Sep 8, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Except he said he feels (for safeties at least) that you shouldn't use advanced stats to evaluate them
I don’t know if I’m just reading this differently, but I don’t see where in his reply he made any statement, good or bad, about Collins’ play. He basically said that he felt he didn’t have enough information to make a call on it. I think his statement about the odd role is part of his reason for feeling he couldn’t make a judgement.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
He didn't...
some people are looking for a reason to attack “stats hounds”. Some just don’t like the idea of “stat-ifying” everything and I don’t disagree. But his publication is well known and respected so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with this analysis of the analysis.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by ISN on Sep 8, 2011 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
As do I.
I was kind of disappointed actually.
Go Suns, Packers, Jays, and Huskers!
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl XLV Champions!!!!
I also edit things at Ridiculous Upside. Check it out.
System fit? Is he saying Collins would be merely average on a different team?
Depends on the team, but he certainly could be.
Collins is good but I’ve never seen anything from him that makes me think he’s truly elite/dominating. I think he fits well into Capers system, and has always played well. He still makes mistakes here and there that cost the team.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Its not the deep FS job to be dominating. His job is to be the security blanket allowing guys like Woodson to gamble like they do. The FS is like a lineman in the respect that if you don’t hear their name a whole lot, they are doing their job. Collins makes the tackles he need to, gets his share of interceptions and is rarely out of position. He has never really had another safety that had any coverage ability so he never had a chance to come up closer to the line for more big plays. Hopefully Burnett allows that to happen.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Sep 8, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I meant "dominating" in relation to his peers...
in other words, elite. Some have been arguing that the article implies that he is not elite, and whether it actually does or not, I tend to agree that the system makes him as good as he is. He wouldn’t be as good in some other systems.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
It's arrogant, but true
Just look at the Pro Bowl voting. How the heck did Merriweather ever make it to the Pro Bowl…twice? How did former Cowboys Safety Roy Williams make it to the Pro Bowl so often? That speaks of the average intelligence of many football viewers across the nation. Thankfully, Packer fans are separated from that statistic. ; )
I will agree that Safeties are one of the most difficult positions to analyze.
2011 Super Bowl Champs!
Pro Bowl voting as with other All-Star games are skewed by market size and the corresponding homerism and to a great extent the media, not ignorance in general. Thats not to say that there is no ignorance involved, even from the coach and player vote.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Sep 9, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Whoa Stroh....
lets take a breather…..
The almanac is a pretty highly respected publication among analysts/esperts and often times correctly predicts things that many others miss. I wouldn’t say the author knows little about football. You can argue its a “stats junkie” book, but it tries to create/find advanced statistics to reflect some of the things you are talking about.
I didn’t really see one objectionable thing from what was in that article.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
My a pompous aSs too, Stroh,
because I just want to pick on you’re english yoosige.
…but seriously, I my initial response was only that he was downgrading people that go ape-shit over 1 or 2 plays, when it takes more than that to say something about a player. Yet he acknowledges that stats don’t do a safety any justice.
You’ve just been Blatz’d
by Anthony Dilweg on Sep 8, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
And you're a complete spaz
so you two would probably get along great together.
by Archibaldcrane on Sep 8, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Packers will repeat.
I’ve got 14 reasons that the Packers will repeat. So Mike Vick and the rest of the BEagles “Dream Team” sit your ass down 2nd Sunday in February and save me a hot wing. People forget that we had 15 players on injured reserve that were “better” than the players we won the Superbowl with. If that is indeed true and those players are back, wouldn’t that mean we are in an even better position to win? Packers go 13-3 for the season, beat the Eagulls in the NFC Championship on The Frozen Tundra. Terrors of the Tundra 27, Patsies 17. Superbowl LXVI Champions!!
Nick Collins
I’m not going to call Brandon names like Stroh did, but… Gotta’ say, I understand that reaction. I don’t see how anyone can watch Collins for all these years and conclude that he’s NOT an elite safety.
Now, he doesn’t make quite as many flashy plays as someone like Sharper did, but that’s just because Collins has more of a focus on making sure that he’s doing his job first and foremost. In other words, he’s not off free-lancing on every other play. 90% of the time, when Collins appears on screen, you see him in tight coverage on somebody or you see him making a routine tackle (and making it LOOK routine, because he’s in great position with great fundamentals).
But every once in awhile, you do see him making game-changing plays. I think here right away of the play he made against the Vikings in our second matchup against them. He had to be almost 15-20 yards off the ball when it went in the air, but he closed on the receiver like nothing I’ve ever seen, went up and OVER the guy, and made the pick in front of him. …just an unbelievable play. I re-wound it on my DVR and watched a bunch of time trying to figure out how in the world he did it.
Point is… In Collins, you get the best of both worlds: he’s a guy who makes the defense work well as a unit because he’s focused mainly on doing his job, AND he also has the rare athleticism to make practically every play when he sees an opportunity. He lets the game come to him, and then he wins it. Period.
Personally, I think he’s the best safety the Packers have ever had. But, how anybody can think that he’s not even elite is beyond me.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
He never said that Collins wasn't "elite"
Really his statement doesn’t make any type of judgement on his ability. I mean, he says he’s a “system fit”, but I didn’t take that as him saying he’s average, just that for what the Packers want him to do, he does it well.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
^^Apologetics Fail^^
Nope, sorry, no sale.
Calling somebody a “system-fit” is another way of saying he’s “just a guy.” That’s what you say about Tampa 2 corner who can fill a zone and is adequate in run support, but who shouldn’t get a big pay-day in free-agency. Saying he’s a “system-fit” is what you say about a RB who puts up stats in a Mike Shanahan offense. It’s like saying a QB is a “game manager.” What you mean is that he’s “okay for now” or “he’ll get you by.”
Plus, the question specifically asked if Collins was over-rated, and Brandon’s answer is basically “it’s tough to say, but I can see how somebody would think that.” The correct answer, in my opinion, would be “dude, Collins is awesome, trust me on this.” But the least he could say would be “no, he is not over-rated; he’s very good.” So… for Brandon to say “myeh, yeah I guess he kinda’ could be over-rated but I’m not sure because those pesky networks keep me from knowing the truth in this matter”…
No. That doesn’t cut it. Wrong answer.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
First of all, Brandon is the one asking the questions in this piece
Second, while I understand that saying he’s a system fit has connotations, I think his subsequent statement that it’s hard to analyze Packers’ defensive players because they have odd roles doesn’t support the idea that he thinks Collins is “just a guy”. This is a guy who doesn’t exclusively watch the Packers, and he’s giving an honest answer that he feels he doesn’t have enough information to make a judgement call on Collins’ ability. I much prefer that honesty to just giving an answer for the sake of giving an answer.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
by GoGregGo on Sep 8, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He doesn't show up huge in FO's numbers
because he’s a system fit. That’s the point.
by Archibaldcrane on Sep 8, 2011 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not to mention that I think most elite players in the league are "system fits"...
the system helps make them elite.
Woodson was a great player, but became elite in Caper’s system.
I doubt Rodgers would have been anywhere near this successful if not for McCarthy’s system.
Favre was elite in Holmgren’s system, then fell off when the system left.
Perhaps there are a few truly elite players no matter where they play (Reggie White, Barry Sanders?) but those are few and far between.
In Every Climb and Place....
I am an ass hat.
by PhoenicianPakFan on Sep 8, 2011 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Case in point
Aaron Kampman. Great player in the 4-3. Not a great player in the 3-4.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
Rec'd.
Look no further than Tom Brady. He’d be very good somewhere else but not 36 TD’s to 4 INT’s or 50 TD’s to 7 INT’s good, imo.
/ducks from the NE fans who always seem to be lurking.
Fire Slocum
by packallday555 on Sep 8, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
/aims low to begin with
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by ISN on Sep 8, 2011 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
/hides behind Wiedmann
"Perfection is not attainable,
but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."
"It's a great day to be great, baby!"
Skol is a four-letter word.
The Munsters of the Midway still suck!
Exactly.
Joe Montana could be described as a “system fit” if you just mean that he played within a good system.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Or the system only prospers because there's a good QB running it.
Doubt we know what the WCO is if Joe Montana went 12 TDs – 25 INTs his first 2 years before he was sacked.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
by ISN on Sep 8, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I wasn't calling Brandon names.
THe guy from FO is who made the statement I found objectionable!
You've been Stroh'd™!!!
Oh!
Okay, I misunderstood this post. I thought Brandon was answering the questions, but now I see that he was asking them.
…then what the hell is he doing asking if Collins is over-rated?
…ugh… It goes to show that analyists are paid to have an opinion, but NOT to be right.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions
My impression was
Brandon feels that the general Packer fan thinks that Collins is (at least) a great safety. Some of Football Outsiders statistics don’t back up that sentiment, so Brandon asked an outside non-biased observer if Packer fans are overrating Collins.
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
Right
That’s the way I view it now, too, now that I understand the post’s structure. Really, the subtle subtext of the question could almost be “Is safety play perhaps an area where stats (on which Football Outsiders rely almost exclusively) fail to give an adequate measure of what’s really going on?” But, basically, in an innocent-enough question about where Brandon was surprised by something suggested by their stats. …although I still think the question would’ve been better phrased if it had left the term “over-rated” out… still… not nearly as big of a deal now that I understand who’s saying what. The FO guy’s answer just tells me that he hasn’t studied Collins individually enough to really have a strong opinion. …which is fine.
But, I can see from your first reply to my initial comment, though, that you were confused too. So… let’s just walk away.
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
"Stat Junkie" is a name!
How about this So’to guy’s weight lifting?? That Dumbell head!!
by Comeonarodge! on Sep 8, 2011 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
What Stroh’s saying is that he called the FO guy — not Brandon — a stat junkie.
“C’mon, man, hook me up. Just gimme some DVOA rankings… or even just one player’s VORP. C’mon, I gotta’ get my head right, man. I’m hurtin’ here!”
by Curly Lambeau on Sep 8, 2011 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
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