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On The Packers Open Week, Injuries, and Total Defense

GREEN BAY, WI - JANUARY 01:  Donald Driver #80 of the Green Bay Packers breaks away from Chris Harris #43 and Lawrence Jackson #94 of the Detroit Lions to score a touchdown at Lambeau Field on January 1, 2012 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Lions 45-41.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

A picture of Donald Driver is leading off this link post. He showed some acceleration after he caught that pass and sprinted in for the touchdown.

Green Bay Packers news | Notebook: McCarthy looks to 2007 1st-round bye to help plot practice schedule | Green Bay Press Gazette. They'll practice on Wednesday and Thursday, take the weekend off, and then resume their normal practice schedule next week.

Green Bay Packers news | Packers should be rested and ready for the playoffs | Green Bay Press Gazette. Everyone, except RB James Starks and TE Ryan Taylor, will practice this week. And both of them should be available to play in two weeks. The team has lost some players (notably S Nick Collins) along the way, but they'll be as healthy as they can be when the playoffs start for them.

Packers finish 32nd in total defense - JSOnline. No team has ever given up as many passing yards as the Packers. But they lead the league in interceptions, which makes the passer rating against them seem much more average, and proves that the official rankings should be determined in some way other than yardage.

However this is the season of suspect pass defenses. In the NFC, the Saints and Giants have their own issues in the secondary. The Lions were just torn apart by Matt Flynn. In the AFC, the Patriots might have the worst defense in the NFL, and they're the top seed. Maybe this is just the NFL's juiced ball season.

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Green Bay's Defense

The problem is not the secondary, it’s the lack of pressure. The only two DLmen worth mentioning are Raji and Pickett, and Pickett can’t rush. Losing Cullen Jenkins was a much bigger deal then talked about, especially when the price tag dropped. All of Caper’s special schemes are predicated on a rush. When he has no faith in the rush, he has to keep the secondary behind the receivers. We’ve seen what happens.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 6:22 AM CST reply actions  

I don't think it's just the pass rush.

Sure that is a small part of the problem, but you also have to remember we have a rookie and backup safety. They are a big part in in protecting against the deep ball.

I understand everyone’s disappointment in let Cullen Jenkins go, but we are 15-1, the top seed in the NFC, and we have one of the best offenses in the NFL. When are we going to let it go. Guess what we let Favre go and that first season we went 6-10. Yet each year we got progressively better, and here we are. These things happen we just need to look at the positives. 38 take aways! Come on, that’s pretty good if you ask me. Something will be fixed and worked out, but until then we just have to believe the coaches will figure something out.

by stratefaced on Jan 3, 2012 8:06 AM CST up reply actions  

All season everyone has been trying to figure this thing out. Of course, losing Collins was a big deal. Then Tramon Williams was playing hurt, as was Morgan Burnett with that club. OK, those things got better, but what was very different this year was pressuring the QB. Almost non-existent. Seldom was the pocket penetrated or even pushed back. Raji’s effectiveness relies on the guys around him, he can’t do it alone. Because Capers doesn’t trust the pass rush, he’s had the backs play back. That’s where all the stop the big play chatter was about. But that failed. There’s more then enough blame to argue about, but I still maintain the biggest cause was lack of pressure which caused Capers to play off. We can also look at a fall off of the ILB’s coverage. It was a mess this year. But if I’m Thompson, I’m going to try and find a premier DE and ROLB.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

i agree

and this is why Capers just had an open tryout for ROLB against Detroit, he is trying to find SOMEONE that can rush from that side.

I believe they had high hopes for Mike Neal and they are disappointed he has not recovered.

I hope Zombo or someone steps up. I am thinking a 3 man rotation on ROLB keeps them fresh for the whole game and helps increase pressure. We have our big guys back for a healthy rotation on the line as well.

We will see.

by Acme on Jan 3, 2012 1:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I’m thinking he’s going to put So’oto in on 3rd downs

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the secondary has everything to do with it.

I don’t know how many times this season I’ve watched an opposing QB throw to a guy who didn’t have anyone within 5 yards of him. Its kinda hard to get pressure when the QB does a three step drop and hits a wide open receiver.

I don’t know how much of it can be blamed on the loss of Collins, since they were getting lit up before he got hurt, but it seems to me like they’ve been doing a lot of zone coverage and very little press man. Theoretically this would be because of the lack of safety help over the top if they get beat, but its frustrating to see the corners ten yards off the line on 3rd and 2. I’m hoping Capers has something up his sleeve for the playoffs, and was just using the regular season to give teams worthless tape on his defense, but I have a feeling if this team loses it will be because of the defense.

Packers' Magic Numbers:
Clinch Division = DONE!!!
Clinch 1st Rd Bye = DONE!!!
Clinch Homefield = DONE!!!

by Bezerkers on Jan 3, 2012 9:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I hope you’re right. All teams have to do is run crossing patterns in front of the backers and voila, a completion. Perhaps, Francois, with his height and coverage skills, is a better answer then Hawk, who’s had a bad year. I know Capers knows his job, and I also hope he has a few tricks that will be effective.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 9:54 AM CST up reply actions  

That argument works if QBs are just standing back in the pocket for 4-5 seconds and picking things apart. That isn’t the case though.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 3, 2012 12:33 PM CST up reply actions  

sick of this

The D pisses me off a lot, but it’s not the worst in the league. If you go into the 4th quarter, up by 20, who cares about the yards you give up? Yet that’s what’s being measured. They’re “the worst” for playing prevent in junk time.

by Anthony Dilweg on Jan 3, 2012 9:04 AM CST reply actions   3 recs

It’s not the yards, as every Packer fan knows. It’s the points. I’m not in the Chicken Little Club predicting gloom and doom. But watching teams do the same stuff over, and over again with impunity is frustrating.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 9:58 AM CST up reply actions  

one…and we LOST! ;-)

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 3, 2012 12:34 PM CST up reply actions  

The games under consideration are the games that haven’t been played yet.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 4:34 PM CST up reply actions  

they've already beaten four of the five other teams in the NFC playoffs

and as for San Fran, if you’re worried about the Packers’ defense against them you must not know much about them, they don’t score touchdowns

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 3, 2012 4:36 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

The Chiefs only scored 1

December, 7 1941 may be a day that lives in infamy, but December 6, 2011 is a day that will live in AWESOMENESS!!! The day I became part owner of the Green Bay Packers!

In Cheese We Trust

by Zundar on Jan 4, 2012 12:42 AM CST up reply actions  

are you saying that any team can expect to hold the Packers to 14 points?

that is foolhardy.

Of course it COULD happen, and it did in KC, but that doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen. That was a road game, down three O-linemen, down Jennings, down Starks, and the receivers dropped a bunch of balls. it was also against one of the best pass rushers in the game, and a very good secondary. most teams don’t have both of those things, including SF (vulnerable secondary).

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 4, 2012 1:00 AM CST up reply actions  

Yards lead to points. Sure yards aren’t the barometer of everything, but that is what fans of teams with crappy defenses say. Teams that give up big yards are going to be the ones that are on edge all game. If our D was playing anything like they did last year, we would mopped this league up this year.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 3, 2012 12:36 PM CST up reply actions  

You can make the argument that yards lead to points,

but there were 13 teams that gave up more points than GB on fewer yards, including the NYJ who were the 5th ranked defense by yardage. I don’t like seeing opposing teams march down the field as much as anyone here, the fact remains that only 1 team outscored us in a game this year which is better than any other team in the league.

Packers' Magic Numbers:
Clinch Division = DONE!!!
Clinch 1st Rd Bye = DONE!!!
Clinch Homefield = DONE!!!

by Bezerkers on Jan 3, 2012 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

I love seeing the defense stop opponents 3 and done. I wish I saw it more often.

by marcopo on Jan 3, 2012 4:36 PM CST up reply actions  

…is that too much to ask? Apparently not. I guess we’ve become a fanbase that would rather make excuses for our inept defense than hope for and expect more from a D that was one of the best last year.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2012 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

And many of those teams probably have offenses that turned the ball over a lot which we don’t have. I don’t think that strengthened your point in the least. Teams that allow a lot of points and not a lot of yards mearly means the D is being put in adverse situations due to careless quarterbacks or guys who can’t hang onto the ball. Our defense rarely had to deal with that or teams would have scored a LOT more than they did on us.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2012 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Yards don't always lead to points

Who had the best offense this year? The Packers, right? Well, going by yards, the Saints & Patriots are better. Going by points, it’s the Packers at #1. The same is true for defense; they’re far from the worst defense in the history of the league (which is the case if you go strictly by yardage).

13.

Build Lasers And Stuff For More Ownage, Dude!

by Wiedmann on Jan 3, 2012 2:07 PM CST up reply actions  

What matters is efficiency and one way of measuring that is yards per point..

the packers are far and away the best in the league in that category. Here is the complete list ordered by yards/point:

Team Yds/Point
Green Bay Packers 11.6
San Francisco 49ers 13.1
New York Jets 13.2
New England Patriots 13.3
Detroit Lions 13.4
New Orleans Saints 13.7
Chicago Bears 14.2
Baltimore Ravens 14.3
Cincinnati Bengals 14.9
Atlanta Falcons 15.0
Buffalo Bills 15.1
Seattle Seahawks 15.1
Carolina Panthers 15.4
Miami Dolphins 15.4
San Diego Chargers 15.5
Minnesota Vikings 15.5
Houston Texans 15.6
New York Giants 15.6
Philadelphia Eagles 16.1
Dallas Cowboys 16.3
Denver Broncos 16.4
Tennessee Titans 16.5
Arizona Cardinals 16.6
Oakland Raiders 16.9
Jacksonville Jaguars 17.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17.8
Pittsburgh Steelers 18.3
Washington Redskins 18.7
Indianapolis Colts 18.9
Cleveland Browns 21.2
Kansas City Chiefs 23.5
St. Louis Rams 23.5

by LombardiBackToGB on Jan 3, 2012 2:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know how great of a metric that is

It seems to reward teams that have great special teams or an opportunistic defense (which create better field position, making it easier to get points with fewer yards). Also, a drive where you go 3 & out without gaining a single yard has absolutely no negative effect on that (and if you lost yardage before punting, that would actually improve this stat). I think a better stat would be per play, rather than per yard.

13.

Build Lasers And Stuff For More Ownage, Dude!

by Wiedmann on Jan 3, 2012 4:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Here is the data for plays per point

Green Bay Packers 1.76
New Orleans Saints 2.04
New England Patriots 2.11
Detroit Lions 2.23
Carolina Panthers 2.46
San Diego Chargers 2.58
New York Giants 2.61
San Francisco 49ers 2.61
Philadelphia Eagles 2.62
Buffalo Bills 2.67
Atlanta Falcons 2.67
New York Jets 2.73
Baltimore Ravens 2.74
Houston Texans 2.75
Dallas Cowboys 2.76
Chicago Bears 2.77
Oakland Raiders 2.83
Cincinnati Bengals 2.95
Minnesota Vikings 2.96
Miami Dolphins 3.01
Tennessee Titans 3.03
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.12
Seattle Seahawks 3.12
Arizona Cardinals 3.18
Denver Broncos 3.29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.37
Washington Redskins 3.58
Indianapolis Colts 3.91
Jacksonville Jaguars 4.12
Cleveland Browns 4.70
Kansas City Chiefs 4.82
St. Louis Rams 5.25

by LombardiBackToGB on Jan 4, 2012 9:22 AM CST up reply actions  

Thanks

That’s about what I’d expect. I’m a little surprised the Jets & Ravens are as high as they are.

13.

Build Lasers And Stuff For More Ownage, Dude!

by Wiedmann on Jan 4, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Oh okay…so now we have the best D in the league huh? YOu guys are a joke. Keep making excuses for our miserable D. As for me, and I am sure Dom Capers, we hold the guys to higher expectations.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions  

Points per opponent

I can give you a better indication of difference in offense and defense than plays per point, IN HEAD TO HEAD COMPETITION WITH LIKE OPPONENTS—the Saints averaged scoring a shade OVER 40 points against the same opponents than the Packers did—GB averaged just a shade OVER 36 points per game. There lies the problem, you can’t ASSUME Packers will beat the Saints because they’ve already done it opening game—Saints team is hottest in the NFL going into playoffs, playing BETTER than their loss to GB, defensive scheme and results are better, run game is better and they have already been there done that against Packers—like the Giants, this makes them better prepared.

by Shavager on Jan 6, 2012 2:33 AM CST up reply actions  

interesting

mostly because 8 of your top 10 on this list are in the playoffs.

outlier is that Steelers are in bottom 6. They allow fewest points and are one of the top in yards against.

Obviously, their defense is solid so something seems a little off.

Not sure if you can, but would be interested in seeing pts/play like Wiedmann said.

by Acme on Jan 3, 2012 5:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Green Bay allowed more yards than they gained this year

are you implying their record this season is a total fluke, because yards = points ?

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 3, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

The problems on defense are a curse and a blessing.

Whether we blame the loss of Jenkins,the missing OLB,the loss of Collins,Burnetts club,Neal being hurt,Raji having to many snaps can all be chosen as part of or all reasons for the defensive curse this season.

We are 15-1,#1 seed and on the cusp of winning back to back SBs.If that isn’t enough of a blessing,then the fact of being exposed on that side of the ball can only give me a sense of assuredness that TT and MM know exactly what is needed and will get it this draft.

by Tarynfor12 on Jan 3, 2012 10:12 AM CST reply actions  

By the way,

how many less PIs were there this season as to last season.Maybe we didn’t press cover nearly as much as we could or should have but,not getting PIs and playing a more laxed scheme is what helped us with the turnovers especially the INTs.

by Tarynfor12 on Jan 3, 2012 10:21 AM CST reply actions  

What I don't understand...

is why everyone wants people to write off the poor play of the defense because “our offense is so awesome”. What is wrong with expecting more from a squad that was damn impressive last year.

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 3, 2012 12:37 PM CST reply actions  

Agreed.

I am hoping Capers was secretly calling crap defensive calls to make our defense look bad heading into the playoffs.

Lack of pressure, missed assignments, missed tackles, etc.

I felt better heading into the playoffs last year. We were first in league for QB rating against. Now we are 10th.

by Acme on Jan 3, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions  

This would be kinda awesome
I am hoping Capers was secretly calling crap defensive calls to make our defense look bad heading into the playoffs.

Symphony X is the best band that ever was.

by TGPackersTwins19 on Jan 3, 2012 8:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I can only hope that is the case. I just get frustrated with people making excuses and trying to use bogus stats to make their argument. Use your eyes people, our D is clearly broken. They are rarely put in bad situations (due to turnovers) yet they can’t seem to stop even poor offenses from going up and down the field. You can argue on the point thing all you want but when the competition gets better, like in the playoffs, those stops aren’t going to be so easy (as the Lions showed us last week. Lets just hope Aaron doesn’t have an off day in the next month!

The Green Bay Packers...Putting bad coaches out of their misery since 2010

by TrevorR on Jan 5, 2012 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

Defense Doesn't Matter

Suppose I told you an NFC team had a pass defense so bad that it gave up a remarkable 20% more YPG than the next-worst team? And a rush defense whose YPG ranked near the middle. What would you predict the team’s W-L record to be? History would say: not very good. So 15-1 is, by NFL standards, a statistical anomaly. But then, so—to some extent— is the playoff presence of the Saints, the Giants, the Patriots…It appears the balance has shifted decisively to pass-heavy offenses, and that the conventional wisdom has been upended. The playoffs may put an even more serious dent in that received wisdom (defense wins championships/run-heavy offenses prevail in cold weather, etc.)—or demonstrate that the Packers, Patriots, Saints, et al can’t escape its reach. Or maybe the results will simply leave everyone dazed and confused.

by 1-10-1 on Jan 4, 2012 1:01 PM CST reply actions  

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