Wild Card Preview: Falcons at Giants

by Brandon on Jan 6, 2012 10:01 AM CST in Green Bay Packers Preview

While the Saints are heavy favorites on Saturday night, the Giants are only 3 point favorites as they host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Here are their team stats from Football Outsiders:

	Falcons	Giants
Pass Offense	8	4
Pass Defense	10	21
Run Offense	25	20
Run Defense	3	19
Special Teams	22	16

While both teams are known for having a strong run game, that's not the case this season. Falcons RB Michael Turner isn't having his best season. But the Giants are having trouble stopping anyone's rushing attack. It looks like both teams will have to rely on their passing attack, While the Giants pass offense is better, the Falcons pass defense has played well overall.

The Falcons have been averaging 25 points per game, and that seems like a reasonable goal. However, the Giants averaged 25 points per game too, and they've scored 29 or more in four of their last five games. Unfortunately, just like the odds makers, I don't know who's going to win this game. I like the Falcons to win, but the Giants have enough big play ability that I might be eating those words come Sunday.

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Since they're playing at MetLife Stadium

I’m gonna go with the Giants here. Matty Ice is Matty Lukewarm when not in a comfy dome. Away and outside, his career passer rating goes from 98.3 to 78.8, completion percentage goes from 64% to 56%, and his INT to TD ratio doubles. I’m not a true stat geek, but that’s what I pick up from checking a couple sites on his situational stats.

When life gives ya lemons, shut up and eat your damn lemons.
Brett Favre will lead the Vikings to a Victory in Super Bowl XLVI, Guaranteed! - REVENGE4FAVRE

by P-Townfan on Jan 6, 2012 10:13 AM CST reply actions

Turner needs to have a good day,

not so much breaking big gains but allowing Ryan to keep the pass number low.
If the Giants can get a 10 pt lead at halftime,Ryan and the Falcons are done.
PICK-Giants,24-13 Halftime-Giants 14-6

by Tarynfor12 on Jan 6, 2012 10:25 AM CST reply actions

If the Giants D takes Turner out of the game

By stuffing him or pulling them back for losses, then Ryan has no choice but to throw in that cold January New York wind and I think we’ll see him trying to either checkdown a lot, or if he tries to throw deep to White or Jones, then more than likely they’ll be a lot of off target passes. Giants win this one 31-14.

When life gives ya lemons, shut up and eat your damn lemons.
Brett Favre will lead the Vikings to a Victory in Super Bowl XLVI, Guaranteed! - REVENGE4FAVRE

by P-Townfan on Jan 6, 2012 10:49 AM CST up reply actions

Sounds About Right

Much depends on Pierre-Paul, currently the most fearsome defensive presence in the league. If he has (yet another) big day, the game is likely to be over for Atlanta before the 3rd quarter ends, an unfortunate outcome for the Packers.

by 1-10-1 on Jan 6, 2012 12:46 PM CST up reply actions

an unfortunate outcome for the Packers.

How do you figure? We would play them in GB and already beat them at their house! Or aren’t you aware of that?!

Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!

by Strohman on Jan 6, 2012 7:30 PM CST up reply actions

I would much rather face the Falcons than the Giants, personally

99% of people on here would agree. Their front four, particularly JPP, is capable of taking over a game. Can’t say the same about the Falcons’ pass rush.

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 6, 2012 9:53 PM CST up reply actions

Agree w/ that...

But that doesn’t mean its unfortunate for the Pack if they face the NYG.

Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!

by Strohman on Jan 7, 2012 12:16 AM CST up reply actions

I think all of them have their downsides...

Giants: Play well outdoors, good QB/offense, tough DLine, played us hard
Saints: Great offense, going into playoffs hot
Lions: Division foe, played us tough, would be third contest this year
Falcons: Can be a good offense, and defense can get pressure, would be ultimate redemption for last year in similar circumstances

In Every Climb and Place....

by PhoenicianPakFan on Jan 7, 2012 12:30 AM CST up reply actions

And I know they can't play the Saints next week...

just sayin’

In Every Climb and Place....

by PhoenicianPakFan on Jan 7, 2012 12:31 AM CST up reply actions

Falcons are the only team of the 4 that I honestly cannot see the Packers losing to

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 7, 2012 1:23 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah, I'd agree with that.

We’re 2-1 against them in the last two years, and those were all in the Georgia Dome, where they are a different team than on the road.

13.

Build Lasers And Stuff For More Ownage, Dude!

by Wiedmann on Jan 7, 2012 2:20 AM CST up reply actions

I was just saying that all those teams...

have something they could use to “get up” for the big game.

I know the Falcons are bitter and that would be the one matchup they could really sink their teeth into.

In Every Climb and Place....

by PhoenicianPakFan on Jan 7, 2012 4:19 AM CST up reply actions

yeah for sure

not sure they have the firepower to keep up or the defense to slow the Packers down though

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 7, 2012 12:30 PM CST up reply actions

It Was My Way of Saying...

…that the NYG are the only NFC playoff team with a pass rush capable of taking over a game, and represent a potentially significant threat.

by 1-10-1 on Jan 7, 2012 10:19 AM CST up reply actions

Like last week, I really hope the Giants lose.

But I just don’t see it happening here.

by Charlie Kelly on Jan 6, 2012 10:32 AM CST reply actions

Neither of these teams is very good

Giants:

Only beat one team with a winning record (Patriots)
1-3 vs. playoff teams
4-4 at home
Got swept by the 5-11 Redskins

Falcons:

Beat two teams with winning records (Lions, Titans)
1-4 vs playoff teams
4-4 on the road
Lost to the 4-12 Buccaneers
7 wins came against sub-.500 teams

I agree Giants have a slight edge in this game, although one they could easily let slip away if they play a sloppy game. Either way, the winner won’t survive the divisional round without a major improvement in play.

by DaveInTucson on Jan 6, 2012 11:14 AM CST reply actions

Hey now

they’ve each beaten 1 more playoff team than the Patriots have!

by Archibaldcrane on Jan 6, 2012 2:19 PM CST up reply actions

Patriots beat the Broncos,

who technically do qualify as a playoff team.

Pats are 0-2 against teams with winning records, though.

by DaveInTucson on Jan 6, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

Ah ok, that's it.

My god they really only played two winning teams all year?

That’s insane.

by Archibaldcrane on Jan 6, 2012 2:51 PM CST up reply actions

I guess that's what happens

when you play the AFC West and NFC East and the AFC East is bad and Peyton Manning’s neck explodes. What a cakewalk schedule.

by Archibaldcrane on Jan 6, 2012 2:53 PM CST up reply actions

they are in for an awakening in the next couple weeks

football does not build character, it reveals character.

by sheehan on Jan 6, 2012 3:13 PM CST up reply actions

Like most..

I’d prefer to see the dome team come to Lambeau. Also like most, unless the Giants completely $hit the bed, they should win a close one.

I love wins. Wins are good for the soul.- Barry Alvarez Sep 25, 2005

We expect to win.- Ted Thompson July 28, 2011

by White92 on Jan 6, 2012 11:22 AM CST reply actions

I’ll take the Falcons. I don’t believe in the idea that the Giants are hot right now. They won 3 of their last 4 but against teams in free fall. They lost a critical game against the Redskins that really should have been the nail in the coffin for their season. They come out of a division of mediocre underachievers, but unlike the Seahawks of last season they 1) Don’t possess nearly the same home field advantage and 2) Let winning their crummy division go to their heads.
I have reservations on the up and down Falcons too, but I’ll take the quiet professionalism of players like Michael Turner over the undeserved pride of guys like Brandon Jacobs. Upset time in ego city.

by CourtesyLaughs on Jan 6, 2012 12:44 PM CST reply actions

Quiet professionalism? The falcons are known for playing after the whistle

That’s not professionalism to me, sorry. Also Manning>Ryan especially outdoor Ryan. That said, in spite of the fact that the Giants should win this and Matt Ryan sucks outside of domes, I think Michael Turner, terrible year and all, will have a Feild day with that Giants D and that will be the key. Falcons 27-24

"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jan 6, 2012 12:48 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

We’re using two different definitions but okay.

by CourtesyLaughs on Jan 6, 2012 1:36 PM CST up reply actions

I think you mean composure then

And I could see that. Smith is a very level headed coach and the team follows that

"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jan 6, 2012 5:57 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Composure or humility*

"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Jan 6, 2012 6:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don't think the weather will be a huge factor

either this week in New Jersey or next week in Lambeau. This has been one crazy warm winter. I think the Falcons have been playing better football lately than the Giants, which is why I would prefer not to host Atlanta next week, but think that will be the case.

"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473

by NorthSidePaulie on Jan 6, 2012 1:17 PM CST up reply actions

Isnt there

Supposed to be an arctic freeze or something like that next weekend?

by Shoes31 on Jan 6, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions

Could be

Anything can happen of course. But going on the way it’s been so far, it might not be a good idea to count on cold and wind being an advantage.

"Hawk Harrelson: Annoying even the hearing impaired": Teahenny Penny paraphrasing Chisoxfan1473

by NorthSidePaulie on Jan 6, 2012 1:59 PM CST up reply actions

wunderground.com has a nice "NFL Weather" index

here

The weather forecast for the Giants game: low 40s, 6mph wind, 13% chance of rain. In other words: not bad for early January in the Meadowlands, but not exactly dome conditions either.

by DaveInTucson on Jan 6, 2012 2:24 PM CST up reply actions

also from wunderground

for next Friday in Green Bay.

Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper teens.

"Perfection is not attainable,
but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence."

"We're nobody's underdog!"

"We don't play scared!"

After further review,
the Munsters of the Midway still suck!

by NorthStarr on Jan 6, 2012 11:47 PM CST up reply actions

Id like to see the Falcons win

Only because the Giants are a more dangerous team. However, both teams have been up and down all season, and have issues with consistency. Neither team strikes me as that great.

by Shoes31 on Jan 6, 2012 1:39 PM CST reply actions

I would love to see the Falcons win this one

But it’s not meant to be. Giants win 35-21. I know that sometimes, they play like an elite team and sometimes, they play like the Browns. But this week, the elite side comes out.

by Steve From Florida on Jan 6, 2012 1:45 PM CST reply actions

So if Detroit wins...

…we play Detroit next week. If the Saints win, we play the winner of NYG/ATL?

by soliman on Jan 6, 2012 2:17 PM CST reply actions

Yep!

by Archibaldcrane on Jan 6, 2012 2:21 PM CST up reply actions

yes

If the Saints win, they play 49ers, and the Packers get the ATL-NYG winner
If the Lions win, they play the Packers, and the 49ers get the ATL-NYG winner

by DaveInTucson on Jan 6, 2012 2:28 PM CST up reply actions

Lowest Seed

The #1 seed always plays the lowest remaining seed. The only way we get to face the Saints is they have to go through the Lions and then the Niners and we go through the winner of ATL / NYG.

by Steve From Florida on Jan 6, 2012 2:33 PM CST up reply actions

There's this..

Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to New York

I love wins. Wins are good for the soul.- Barry Alvarez Sep 25, 2005

We expect to win.- Ted Thompson July 28, 2011

by White92 on Jan 6, 2012 2:46 PM CST reply actions

Falcons 34, Giants 20

The Falcons defence struggles within the secondary but they should be able to provide some pressure on Manning, but still Manning gets over 300 yards passing.

The key may be Ryan and whether or not Turner can run the ball. The Falcons may be able to run on a front seven that struggles against the run at time. If they can stop Turner then the focus comes on Ryan and whether he can get the ball vertical consistently – I don’t know if he can.

But this is a game on paper the Giants should win at home just like Redskins and Seahawks. This one will end up just like those two.

Proud fan of the 2010 Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks and the 2010 Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.

"You cannot dream yourself into a character; you must hammer and forge yourself into one."