Pretending The Packers Could Be A Player In The 2012 Free Agent Market
by Brandon on Feb 9, 2012 2:00 PM CST
in Green Bay Packers Free Agency
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NFL Free Agency 2012: Matt Flynn, Mario Williams Among Marquee Names Hitting The Market - SBNation.com. Other than their own players, which of these free agents would be of the most interest to the Green Bay Packers?
I ask this question hypothetically. In reality, I don't expect the Packers to be a major player in the free agent market, except to re-sign their own players. For me, I'm looking at two particular defensive lineman.
Mario Williams. He's such a great athlete that he actually played well at outside linebacker in the Texans 3-4 defense, until he was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. He should probably move back to DE in a 4-3 scheme. If he were a Packer, he might not be a good fit in their base 3-4 (not really an OLB, too small for a 3-4 DE) but he'd play a lot in their nickel package as the other defensive lineman alongside B.J. Raji. In reality, I could see him playing for the Titans, and I could see him on the Dolphins (if their salary cap permits).
Paul Soliai. He's a nose tackle, a run stopper, and was just named as a replacement to his first Pro Bowl. And he's not at all what the Packers need on the defensive line (i.e. pass rusher). But he'd be an upgrade, a very expensive upgrade based on his expected free agent payday, and at this point the Packers could use an infusion of talent on the defensive line in any form. In reality, any team playing in a 3-4 defensive scheme without an anchor at nose tackle could use him.
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FA this year
could be a lot like the abbreviated FA of last season where there were not a lot of the big money deals. The salary cap is not going up and a lot of teams were pressed up against it this past season. Heck, the Steelers were $25 million OVER the projected cap for this coming season. They have already cut a handful of players and restructured the contracts of Woodley and Timmons, which were signed 6 months ago!
With most contracts counting more against the cap in each subsequent year, it is reasonable to think that many teams will be pressed again this season. Thus, it may make the prices in FA a little more reasonable.
TT will rarely be a player on the first day of FA. I think the last time he dipped his toe in the water was with Chris Canty, but Canty would not even visit without a contract offer. So, a lot would depend on the talent versus price. I believe a similar scenario played out with Kevin Burnett.
Mario Williams may be considered because, as mentioned, he is so versatile and athletic. and thus probably worth the cost, despite coming off a serious injury. But you would have to expect a 4-3 team to make him a much bigger offer than a 3-4 team.
I still think Cliff Avril could be an intriguing guy at OLB, but again expect him to get a much higher offer from a team using him as a DE. The Lions will be hard pressed to come up with a competitive offer due to their cap situation and money already committed to the D-line.
With TT putting a premium on big men and our current draft location, I expect TT to draft a DL in the first round (and maybe a couple of other rounds). Thus, I could see going for an OLB in FA. One possibility is Ahmad Brooks. He will be looking for starter money and the 49ers have Aldon Smith to take his place.
The only way TT can get an OLB from the draft that can make an immediate impact is trading up, which could be expensive. He may be reluctant to do so because there now seems to be depth issues on defense at DL, OLB, CB, and S.
It will definitely be interesting to see how the next few weeks play out. I just don’t think TT can afford to do nothing before the draft. It is not reasonable to think that Wynn, Wilson, Jones, Zombo, etc. are going to suddenly “get it” next season. We basically only have three players that could surprise on defense next season: Neal, Lattimore, and So’oto. That simply is not enough.
Not buying this at All...
The only way TT can get an OLB from the draft that can make an immediate impact is trading up,
He got Matthews at 26 and he had a HUGE impact for the Packers! Look at Brooks Reed for Houston. Drafted in the 2nd, #42 overall, and he had 10 sacks for them as a rookie. I think there are potentially 6-8 OLB that could be better prospects than Reed was. Its basically up to Thompson to identify the ones that can make an impact soon. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, since he already found Matthews in the same part of the draft we’re in now!
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
yep, those are two examples
But do you really think there is going to be a Clay Matthews sitting there at 28? Don’t forget how much had to be given up to go up and get Matthews. I believe Matthews was also projected to go higher. Brooks Reed was also supposed to be a first rounder.
Who are your 6-8 OLB prospects that are better than Reed?
Potentially...
Ingram, Perry, Upshaw, Mercilus, Branch, Lewis, Curry, Irvin, to name 8 of them! I don’t know where you figured Reed was rated, I figured he was a late 2nd, CBS had him 41st. I know one or 2 liked him enough to be a possible late 1st, but he got drafted right where he should have. He didn’t produce nearly enough in college to be considered a 1st rd pick. He lacks enough agility to play in space and is/was a one trick pony as a pass rusher. No complimentary counter moves…
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
Ingram, Upshaw, Perry
are all gone by 28, probably the three best of your list, and exactly the three I was thinking TT would have to trade up to get.
Curry is intriguing but is coming from a smaller school and may not be ready for the jump, plus is switching positions. I think he has a shot to be there at 28, but combining his Senior Bowl with an outstanding combine and he probably could go before 28.
Mercilus switching positions and from NFP “Physically he looks the part and has the skill to simply man handle college lineman at times. However, he’s a raw kid who is stiff in the hips and doesn’t have a great feel for the game when asked to find the football. He’s got some upside, but his tightness and overall lack of natural feel for the game are two very big concerns that will keep him from being the type of pass rusher his freaky skill set says he could.” Pass.
Lewis? Who Ronnell? That has Jamaal Reynolds written all over it. Pass. But you are right, we certainly would not have to trade up to get him.
Branch is also switching positions. Likely there, but an immediate impact?
Not sure if Perry will be gone by then.
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
Ranked #3 as OLB
on NFP. No way he lasts till 28.
#3 OLB isn't exactly a lock to be drafted by #27
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
Stiff in the hips is the Definition of Reed!
They are all rated in the same area or above what Reed was. Reed also had to switch positions from DE to OLB, whats your point? Your only proving that any of them could easily be as impactful as Reed. And every one of them had better production than Reed (save maybe Ronnell Lewis) did in college and I would say all are better athletes than Reed!
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
hey, its fine if you want to say there
are 6-8 prospects better than Reed, but that does not necessarily mean 6-8 prospects will still be there at 28. 3 or 4 of them probably won’t.
So, you are left with 3 or 4 still there. I don’t think the 3 or 4 left are ready to make an impact immediately. My opinion. You appear pretty comfortable to role the dice on a pass rush for another year. I’m not.
My whole point is that I would rather TT get the OLB in FA and stay at 28 and pick a DE, which is what I think he will do.
I didn't say they would all be there did I?
No, I simply said that there are 6-8 that COULD be better prospects as him, I named them and then provided reasons why they could all be as good or better than Reed. And among Ingram, Upshaw and Perry, I’ve seen every one mentioned as a possibilty to the packers by someone.
What FA are there that you’re comfortable with and are proven commodities at OLB that would take pressure off Matthews? I dont think there is one FA OLB that would provide that kinda impact. Super Mario would but isn’t really a 34 OLB and I consider it unlikely that he even leaves Houston.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
Much less that Thompson would pursue or pay Williams.
My point is any of the 8 guys I mentioned could have a similar impact as Reed.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
but, by disagreeing with my statement that the Packers would have to trade up
to get an OLB that could make an immediate impact, you implied all those guys would be available.
I’m just pointing out that half of them probably won’t be. I have no doubt that at least 4 of those guys can be as good as Reed was this year, but that doesn’t change the fact that they will probably be gone by 28.
I implied no such thing...
I simply said they could all have the same impact. Proving that you can find one outside the 1st rd. Which you said the Packer had to trade up for in the 1st to get.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
let's just say the chances are a lot less
there were probably several LBs in the prior’s year draft that rated higher than Reed too, like Brandon Graham, Jerry Hughes, and Sergio Kindle, but they didn’t pan out.
Simply put...
You don’t know which one will turn out to be a great 34 OLB and neither do I, heck even the scouts don’t know for sure. But it is possible to find them outside the 1st round, when you said that the Packers had to trade up to get one. And I’m not sold on Ingram being able to play OLB very well. Thats Thompsons job to determine which one can/will make an impact. Thats why he gets pd the big bucks.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
One of those three
Has a good chance of being there at 28. Perry hasn’t had the college production, and that may affect his draft stock. And both Ingram and Upshaw are smaller than what you typically want and short arms too. Upshaw isn’t the most sudden rusher either.
The combine is gonna be big for both Branch and Mercilus. It’s gonna help convince people that if they can or can’t play standing up. I think Branch will do great standing up, but not so sure on Mercilus.
Its likely that if we do pick up an OLB early, they won’t have much of an impact in the first half of the season. But in the second half, I can see most of those guys making an impact while rushing the passer.
I wouldn't rate Lewis and Irvin higher than Reed
Reed produced in college, more so than Lewis and Irvin. And both Lewis and Irvin have good sized question marks surrounding their ability to set the edge and beat NFL tackles.
The combine is gonna be huge for a few of those prospects.
Depends...
How much of a difference there is between Reed at #41 and Lewis at #53. Slight difference. Reed only had 6 sacks his Sr year at U of A. Lewis was moved around alot at OU and played some LB, some DE and a hybrid position. He didn’t have great production, basically same as Reed but is a much better all around athlete w/ more experience playing upright.
This is from Irvin’s bio at CBS.
bq. second-team All-Big East 2010 campaign (14 tackles for loss, all sacks—which ranked second in the nation). Despite his lack of experience, Irvin’s athleticism and toughness should give him a chance to be a pass rusher as a 3-4 linebacker at the next level,
He has much better athleticism and natural ability than Reed has. He is rated much lower, but that is largely due to his inexperience. He might have the best long term upside of any 34 OLB in this draft.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
Zombo has been an adequate depth player
despite the fact he never had a true offseason. He was the starter in the SB last year (which we won). Why is it not reasonable to think that he could suddenly get it?
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
He is what he is
will never be an every down OLB because he cannot cover. Only reason he started in the Super Bowl was because Walden got hurt in the Championship game. His sacks are generally from coverage. Go back and look at his sack in the Super Bowl, he actually stopped rushing and then realized Roethlisberger still had the ball so he ran forward and sacked him.
Not really
Only reason he started in the Super Bowl was because Walden got hurt in the Championship game.
Only reason Walden was starting the games before that was because Zombo got hurt.
He was as good in coverage as Walden. I know his sacks were coverage-based, but there was a couple of times this season where there should have been a coverage sack but wasn’t.
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
You do realize
that Walden was not on the team all season right? He was signed after Zombo got hurt. So its not exactly like Zombo outplayed him. Zombo started by default in the Super Bowl, simple as that.
Yeah, I know.
But you do realize that the story you tell of a guy who was on the street when Zombo was starting doesn’t exactly mean that Walden’s starting job was locked up, right?
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
If Walden is not injured
he starts in the SUper Bowl, no idea why you cannot comprehend that.
Still doesn’t change the player Zombo is, and that is an adequate backup. I will give you this, if the Packers can put a dynamic DE in front of him, it will make him better, provided he is not asked to cover anyone.
Oh, are you Kevin Greene?
Didn’t know you had inside information on the LB corps of the GB Packers…
I know that Walden started 2 games & Zombo started 8 during the season.
and him being an unsigned FA on the street isn’t exactly the selling point you might think it is.
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
hey, I am no Walden fan
but the simple fact is Walden would have started in the Super Bowl if not hurt. Walden started the last game of the season and every playoff game. That’s it.
But you bring up another good point, can Zombo even stay healthy to play a full season? He has missed quite a few games now in two years.
Zombo wasn't healthy for those playoff games
He was inactive for all of them. Finally, after the bye before the SB, Zombo was healthy enough to play. So, no, you cannot unequivocally say:
the simple fact is Walden would have started in the Super Bowl if not hurt
Unless you have some sort of evidence that would suggest Walden would have started over Zombo…?
Zombo’s health is a different concern, but that wouldn’t have factored into the decision to start the SB if he was cleared by the medical staff.
13.
"Skip, once again, stop it; Be an analyst; don't be a douchebag."
by Wiedmann on Feb 10, 2012 4:10 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
If Zombo never gets injured
Walden never starts that season. And about Zombo’s sacks being coverage sacks, for the most part that is true. But Zombo never gave up on a play and kept rushing hard with his bull rush. Whenever Walden rushed, if he got blocked initially it was over.
Another compelling factor...
why TT could possibly get involved is Mario Williams’ age – he just (two weeks ago) turned 27. Cliff Avril turns 26 in April.
TT doesn’t like overpaying for veterans past their prime, these guys are just starting their prime.
Mario Williams is intriguing
TT won’t overpay. But there is always the possibility that a player is willing to play for slightly less in order to win a Super Bowl and be in a good situation. Most players seem to simply go for the most money, but there are exceptions.
Imagine Williams at ROLB and Matthews at LOLB. That would help the pass rush! Then draft a good defensive lineman in the first round.
I wouldn’t rule out a FA signing by TT. The defense played poorly, but it seemed like we were missing very few pieces. The right signing – not Redskin-style – could put us over the top again.
this is all wishful thinking.
seriously. we can’t do much for the salary cap, and sign free agents, and have cash to spare for guys like Clay who are the monsters we have and are in their prime. it would be great to get one or more of these guys, but some people are going to have to take a lot less (woodson) in order to get one of these guys. If you can see Woodson restructuring his contract and taking 5 million less to play so someone else can come in, you’re smoking something that I’m not allowed to have becuase I don’t have a prescription for it.
Are the Texans actually letting Williams walk?
Taked baby. Meet at later bar, night or day sometime.
It seems more likely than not
because to franchise him would be about $9-11 million depending on how he is classified: DE or OLB. Brooks Reed emerged in place of Williams so Williams may be a luxury they cannot afford.
I doubt it...
He’s just too good to let him walk for nothing. At the least they should tag and trade him. He can play in any D on any team in the NFL. I just can’t see Houston letting him walk.
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
Well, like I have told you before
we will see. Not as easy as you think to franchise, sign and trade. In the last five years how many times has it happened? Corey Williams and Matt Cassell is all I can think of. DTs had a pretty palatable franchise tag at the time. Cassell’s was pretty significant but I think that deal was immensely help by Pioli becoming the GM of the Chiefs.
Tag and trade
I know its not easy, but it is ALOT easier w/ someone like Mario Williams than it is w/ a Matt Flynn. Not to mention the Packers don’t have the cap room to franchise Flynn and would risk losing both Finley and Wells if they do. Williams could have interest from any team in the NFL. He is an absolute proven commodity, who proved he can play in a 34 or a 43.
You didn’t tell me about a tag and trade being easy. I don’t think the Packers are even considering that w/ Flynn!
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
I'm pretty sure the Texans can't afford to franchise tag M.Williams
per Rotoworld: “Williams earned $18 million in 2011. The mandatory franchise-tag raise would push his 2012 salary to a prohibitive $22.9 million”
If they were to go on the hook for almost $23 million for one player, it would give M. Williams WAY too much bargaining leverage in talks. Other teams could just sit tight and wait because I’m pretty sure there’s no way for the Texans to pay that much without crippling their salary cap.
Long suffering, committed Seahawks/Packers fan
If teams can get a trade done with marginal players like Corey Williams and Matt Cassell, it should be no problem with Mario. BTW, I think Corey and Cassell were traded for 2nd round picks which isnt as crippling as trading 2 1st rounders like Dallas did to get Joey Galloway from the Seahawks.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Feb 10, 2012 10:06 AM CST up reply actions
I know I didnt
I told you we will have to see what happens with Williams. You are the one mentioning tagging and trading. I just pointed out that it is not that easy.
I was wrong about Mario Williams franchise number, it would actually be $16.5 million (120% of his 2011 salary). Texans are currently $5 million under the projected $120 million cap. Arian Foster – free agent. Starting C and G – free agents. Joel Dressen – free agent.
Hard to see the Texans getting anything done with Williams, other than a long-term deal. Why would he sign a long-term deal knowing they can’t franchise him?
So maybe its unlikely that Williams is tagged.
I don’t know Houstons cap situation. Again my point was, its easier to tag and trade a Mario Williams than it is a Matt Flynn! Ones a proven impact player at a position every team wants and needs and the other is an unproven player at a positon every team needs. And I like Flynn more than most…
Our Biggest Challenge is how we deal w/ Success!
I just told you there cap situation
$5 million under. And it is not easier to tag and trade Williams anymore than it is to do the same with Flynn. Neither is a realistic possibility with the respective teams cap situations.
I never once thought the Packers should franchise Flynn. I am happy to take the 3rd compensatory pick and move on. Just wish the pick would be for this draft rather than next years.
A Top Ten list
Free agents I’d love to pretend that we could get:
1) Mario Williams. The best available (and probably least likely to end up a Packer).
2) Brandon Carr. Young, physical corner. Maybe going up against him in practice would teach our receivers how to fight the jam better than they did this year against the Chiefs.
3) Ray Rice. Okay, he’s even less likley than Mario Williams, but with him on the team we could threaten the scoring record.
4) Tracy Porter. Can make some plays, but not physical enough.
5) Carl Nicks. No offense to any of our linemen, but Nicks is a beast.
6) Marshawn Lynch.
7) Cliff Avril. Just so we don’t have to face him on that Detroit line.
8) Jason Jones. Not sure if he’s worth the risk. Looking at the list I thought he has the most potential to be the best value pickup and the most potential to be a complete waste of cap space.
9) Red Bryant. Don’t really know anything about him but he plays a position where we need help.
10) I hate to say this, but Cortland Finnegan. We need a couple feisty guys on this team, and Finnegan also covers pretty well.
Others worth considering in dream scenario: Gaither, Grubbs
Not included (because it’s my dream scenario and in my dream Nick Collins is declared to be twice as strong and sound medically as ever before): Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin.
A sidenote concerning our 2012 starting ROLB (who we will hopefully pick up in the first three rounds of the draft): he doesn’t have to be as dynamic as Matthews, but he does have to make teams account for him and make the opposing QB feel some pressure and pay for double-teaming Matthews.
"I'm a relatively respectable citizen. Multiple felon perhaps, but certainly not dangerous."
— Hunter S. Thompson
by I voted for Kodos on Feb 11, 2012 1:26 AM CST reply actions
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