FanPost

Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy, and the Explosion Number

Cool post, fronted. -Kevin

Hello APC, recently I got my hands on a copy of Take Your Eye Off the Ball by Pat Kirwan. This book is dedicated to helping the reader understand and analyze events on the field that don't involve the ball. He breaks down offensive and defensive schemes, personnel packages, and especially strategy in various facets of the game. He also breaks down what a typical work week during the season looks like. One thing I came across that I found interesting was the explosion number. The explosion number is meant to measure the explosion quotient in players by using their combine measurables. It also tries to make sense of all of the various measurables by combining them into one number. The formula relates only to the Front 7 and offensive lineman. The formula goes like this: Bench Press + Vertical Leap (in inches) + Standing Broad Jump (in feet) = Explosion Number. The book included a chart from the 2009 NFL draft showing the top 11 dlinemen and linebackers selected in the first round. BJ Raji and Clay Matthews were better than most of the other prospects, so it got me thinking, where do Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy end up? After the jump I will include a chart of this year's top front 7 prospects and compare them with our draft choices.

I included the 40 times just so you could see their straight line speed in relation to their explosion number. I did not make this chart in order of who was drafted first, you'll just have to bear with me.

Player

Position

Team

40 Time

Bench Press

Vertical Leap

Standing Broad Jump

Explosion Number

Melvin Ingram

DE/OLB

SD

4.79

28

34.5

109

71.58

Bruce Irvin

DE/OLB

SEA

4.5

23

33.5

123

66.75

Nick Perry

DE/OLB

GB

4.64

35

38.5

124

83.8333

Michael Brockers

DT

STL

5.36

19

26.8

105

54.55

Whitney Mercilus

DE/OLB

HOU

4.68

27

32

118

68.8333

Dontari Poe

DT/NT

KC

4.98

44

29.5

105

82.25

Jerel Worthy

DT

GB

5.08

28*

28.5

107

65.416

Fletcher Cox

DE/DT

PHI

4.79

30

26

103

64.58333

Quinton Coples

DE

NYJ

4.78

25

31

109

65.08333

Shea McClellin

DE/OLB

CHI

4.63

19

31

118

59.8333

Chandler Jones

DE

NE

4.87

22

35

120

67

Kendall Reyes

DT

SD

4.95

36

34

113

79.41666

Lavonte David

OLB

TB

4.65

19

36

119

64.91666

What do the numbers say? Well, Nick Perry has the highest explosion number, that clearly stands out. He showed upper body strength, lower body strength, and straight line speed. What surprised me is that he is higher than Poe, because Poe was the combine winner because he was impressive for a 350 lb man. What else stands out? I think Shea McClellin's number also stands out because it was the second lowest, this could've been who we drafted but the Bears took him.

What is the context? It's just some bogus metric right? Well, now I will tell you the explosion numbers of standouts in the 2009 NFL Draft, as well as some notable defensive rookies from last year and other notable pass rushers.

BJ Raji: Explosion Number 73.6, Raji's explosion number was higher than 7 of the 11 1st round draft choices.

Brian Orakpo: Explosion Number 81.3, Orakpo had the highest explosion number from the 1st round, look where that got him.

Brian Cushing: Explosion Number 75.0, Cushing had the 3rd highest explosion number, he has become an integral part of the Houston defense.

Clay Matthews: Explosion Number 68.5, Clay was middle of the pack in terms of explosion number. It goes to show that this metric doesn't determine everything, because despite Clay's number being average, he still became a huge defensive threat.

Von Miller: Explosion Number 68.5, With the same number as Matthews, Miller had a great rookie season earning Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Aldon Smith: Explosion Number 63.833, Smith had an average number as well, he ended up in DROY consideration.

Ryan Kerrigan: Explosion Number 74.666, Kerrigan looked great as a rookie, and his explosion number shows positive correlation between the number and performance.

JJ Watt: Explosion Number 83, Perry has a number close to Watt's, and Watt was a beast in his rookie season.

Mario Williams: Explosion Number 87.5, Williams is one of the leagues best known pass rushers and he got big money when he went to the Bills.

Demarcus Ware: Explosion Number 75.666, Demarcus Ware is arguably the best pass rusher in the league and he had a pretty good number.

Now what do the numbers say? The numbers say that having a higher number correlates with more success in the NFL, there is a positive correlation between the two. However, a higher number does not cause more success and a lower number does not cause failure. You can have average numbers and still become a great player. Another thing the book mentions is the production ratio. This ratio is used to determine how effective the player was in college by adding up sacks and tackles for losses and dividing that number by the amount of games the player started. Any ratio over 1 is good, Nick Perry's was 1.37, and he played in over 35 games. Tackling machines in college usually become tackling machines in the NFL.

IMO the chances that Nick Perry has success in the NFL are great. He clearly has the physical tools, he has the right attitude, and with good coaching in the GB scheme he should pan out.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Drop me a line

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