FanPost

Historical Results of Going for It on 4th and Goal on the 1 in the First Quarter


Using Pro Football Reference's play index tool to search for plays in which a team had a 4th and goal on the one-yard line in the first quarter for regular season games between 1998 and 2014, I found the following results:

Teams went for it 78 times and settled for the field goal 39 times. Teams which didn't settle scored a touchdown 37 times. Teams which went for the field goal made it 100% of the time. Here's where it gets interesting. Teams which scored a touchdown had a 27-10 record. Teams which failed to score a touchdown still won 26 out of 41 games. Teams which took the sure three won only 18 out of 39 games.

So, teams that go for it won 69% of the time. If they scored a touchdown, they won 73% of the time, but even if they missed they still won 63% of the time. When teams kicked a field goal, they won 46% of the time.

How much of the difference in winning percentage is due to the value of either scoring a touchdown or putting your opponent in poor field position vs taking the sure thing? How much of the difference is due to worse coaches being more likely to kick a field goal? I leave that up to you to think about.

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