The team played very good overall, but there was one area that killed them in this loss to Atlanta. Although it sure would have been nice if rookie TE Jermichael Finley had not committed a holding penalty when K Mason Crosby made a 43 yard field and then missed a 53 yard attempt after the penalty.

There are a lot of important aspects to having a good football team, but the two most important are:

1. Passing offense. Maybe the Packers aren't quite as good as last season, but either way QB Aaron Rodgers leading a very good passing attack. This is not the problem. Obviously you need offense to create points, but with a great passing attack, you always have a chance for a late comeback too.
2. Run defense. Four 100 yard rushers allowed in five games. The only team without one? Detroit. This part of the team is so important because you can't let teams have the ball at the end of a close game and let them run the clock out. You have to stop them and give the offense another chance. In the last two losses against Tampa and Atlanta, both were sealed at the end when the defense couldn't stop the run.

Obviously injuries are a big part of the team's problem. Losing S Atari Bigby for the last three games and the injury LB A.J. Hawk is playing through are not helping. DE Cullen Jenkins is good against the run and now lost for the season too, but DE Mike Montgomery is a good run stopping replacement.

It's really time to focus on one player who hasn't been listed at all on the injury reports this season; LB Nick Barnett. After Rodgers threw his INT in the 4th quarter today, Atlanta went right to the running game and RB Michael Turner. On one key play, Turner ran right and had a clear running lane, except Barnett was right in front of him, unblocked. Barnett missed the tackle, he didn't even force Turner to go back inside, instead Turner ran past him down the sidelines and set up a 1st and goal which led to a TD. Barnett has been a near Pro Bowl performer in his career, but right now the Packers could put backup LB Desmond Bishop in for Barnett, and I doubt we'd notice a difference.

But It's not just Barnett. After the failed onside kick, now this was a team failure, Atlanta just handed the ball off three times, got the first down, and ran out the clock. The Packers deserve their 2-3 record right now. This is basically the same defensive front seven that held their opponents to under 4 yards/carry in 2007, but in 2008, their opponents are averaging over 5 yards/carry.

Until the Packers figure out how to stop the run, expect them to lose at least a couple more close games this season.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 5th, 2008
Noon CST, FOX
This is an open thread for the game.

Inactives from NFL.com:

The biggest news is that QB Aaron Rodgers will start. I'm worried he'll aggrevate the injury or play poorly, but the offense would be dead without him. QB Matt Flynn isn't ready and the running game hasn't done anything this season. LB A.J. Hawk will play through his groin injury, and S Charlie Peprah will get his first start as a Packer (maybe his first NFL start). You might remember Peprah was last seen as he watched Dallas RB Felix Jones run by him for a TD.

What a mess. 14 players listed on the injury report, including 10 starters.

Harris and Jenkins are out. Clifton, Collins, Pickett, and Woodson should play through their injuries and start. Bigby and Hall should be out again, as they have been for the last two games, and I have no idea about Hawk or Rouse (who should be a starter if Bigby is out). That's 9 starters, and one replacement starter. The Packers have good backups at every position, except no one can replace Jenkins pass rush from the defensive tackle spot, and should be able to compete even if all these starters miss this game.

The 10th regular starter is obviously Rodgers. He's a game time decision, but he will be playing through some right shoulder pain even if he does play. I have no idea how the offense functions without him. The running game has been dead the last three weeks, and it wasn't great in the week 1 game against Minnesota either. Rookie QB Matt Flynn is a promising young QB, but he's not ready. It's not his fault, rookie QBs shouldn't have to start. The shoulder injury wasn't Rodgers fault, well maybe he should haven't been trying to stretch out on a busted scramble play, but his consecutive games started streak should end at four. Boy it sure would be nice to have a QB who could start 257 consecutive games. Hey, everyone will mention it if Rodgers misses this game.

I asked Dave the Falconer over at The Falcoholic five questions about this Sunday's opponent, the Atlanta Falcons.

1. How has rookie QB Matt Ryan played? Based on QB ratings alone, he seems inconsistent from game to game.

He's been very inconsistent, but I think that's what you have to expect from a rookie quarterback. What's impressed me most with Ryan so far is that despite his happy feet and penchant for a few mistakes, he's remained very calm throughout. That kind of poise will serve him well when the Falcons are expected to contend in a year or so. Against the Packers, I'd expect him to have a fair-to-middling game, something like 14/27 with 150 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He's not good enough yet to carry this team.

The offense is all about Turner--which isn't necessarily a good thing. Turner has struggled against strong defenses, partly because our offensive line has been pretty ineffective in run blocking. When he's able to get space, however, there are few backs with the same blend of power and speed, and he'll take off. Currently, if Turner's running for over 100 yards, the Falcons have a fantastic chance of winning the game. If he doesn't, they're probably down by 14.

There were knocks on Sam Baker's tiny arms before the draft, but clearly that was just scouts being dumb. Baker's been the absolute anchor of this line so far, and there's a noticeable difference in blocking when he's in the game. He's been somewhat limited by a concussion and other ailments, but he's definitely been our best rookie thus far this year.

Our defense hasn't given up a lot of points, but the secondary is a real concern against the Packers. The Falcons are sorely lacking in pass rush despite having a reasonably tough line and one of the best linebacking corps in the league. If Aaron Rodgers plays this weekend, you guys would seem likely to put up more than 24 points against the league's youngest secondary. Your rushing game doesn't really worry me, though.

He's doing a quality job with this team. He's been given a year to get this team in order and put a very young team on the winning track, and he's gone about it the right way. I wish he'd limit Matt Ryan to fewer than 40 passes when we're down, but that's probably not going to happen given this team's offensive weapons. I think he's a good coach, though, and I'm looking forward to the future in Atlanta.

As we all look forward to the start of the QB Matt Flynn era, let's take a look at how he might do against Atlanta.

Flynn and rookie QB Brian Brohm both had some very bad games during the preseason, but Flynn had a good finish in the preseason game against Tennessee's backups so he did deserve the backup QB job. Still he looked awful more often then he looked good during the preseason, so I'm not optimistic he's put it all together by sitting on the sidelines during the first four regular season games. At least he'll have all week to get ready.

Team rankings from Football Outsiders.com:

Atlanta is average to below average overall, but they are an exceptional running team. And the Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The collapse of the Packers' run defense has been one of the most surprising things this season. It's basically the same defensive front seven as last season. DT Corey Williams was traded to Cleveland, but he only started to play after DT Johnny Jolly was hurt. Now Jolly's back, but his return alone hasn't made a difference. DE Cullen Jenkins is a huge loss as a pass rusher, but his backups DT Mike Montgomery and rookie DE Jeremy Thompson are similar run stoppers. The biggest difference I've noticed this season is the lack of big plays by LB Nick Barnett, who has been almost silent. He's 3rd on the team in tackles, but statistically he's had a similar season to LB Brady Poppinga, and Poppinga was always seen as the weak link on defense.

Outside of the secondary and WR Greg Jennings, the Packers played horrible last week in Tampa, but still almost escaped with a victory. Unfortunately Tampa isn't a good running team and couldn't expose the Packers' weak run defense like Atlanta can. Even if Flynn has a good game, I see him standing a lot on the sidelines as RB Michael Turner and RB Jerious Norwood run for a lot of 1st downs. The Packers' great pass defense won't help if Atlanta keeps handing off the ball. This doesn't look like a winning matchup for the Packers, and the next win might not come for at least another week.

I have no idea, but I guess he won't play. Mike McCarthy says Rodgers hasn't even thrown a football this week:

(Was Rodgers able to throw more than a tennis ball today?)
We didn't even go that route. The plan was to rehab him as hard as they possibly can with yesterday, and he was a little sore from yesterday's work today, and that was the same plan today. They're working as hard as they can to get as much strength back in the shoulder. That's the focus.

Will Carroll is the guru of sports injuries, at least in the media, and he says Rodgers should be a game time decision:

Let's get past the semantics on Rodgers. He said that he'd separated or dislocated his shoulder just after the game, while coach Mike McCarthy denied it. On Monday, the official word was that Rodgers had suffered a sprained shoulder. Anyone want to guess how? In a separation or dislocation (it's the same injury, just a matter of degree), the AC joint is stressed and if the ligaments are sprained ... well, there you have it. The result is the same. Rodgers will be sore, but his response to treatment and any loss of mobility or strength will work against getting back out there on Sunday. We won't know how that works until he gets back out on the field and throws, which likely won't come until later in the week. He was very limited at practice on Wednesday, a bad sign. My early read on this is that Rodgers will be a gametime decision on Sunday, so the Packers and fantasy teams should have backups ready