While QB Peyton Manning was throwing two pick-sixes, QB Aaron Rodgers completed 21 of 27 for 186 yards, 1 TD and no turnovers. It was a solid game, but I was surprised to see Football Outsiders week 7 Quick Reads ranked it as the 2nd best performance by a QB last weekend:

186 yards seems like a pedestrian day, but Rodgers didn't turn the ball over and wasn't sacked once despite being buzzed by defenders all day. This is what a game-manager actually looks like.

Although Bill Barnwell did get a ribbing for confusing S Nick Collins with Houston's S Nick Ferguson when discussing Manning's first pick-six.

It wasn't a monster week for QBs, no QB threw for over 2 TDs on Sunday and QB Matt Cassel's 3 TD performance on Monday came after the above article was posted by Football Outsiders. Maybe Rodgers slipped to 3rd. I don't remember if Rodgers has even been listed higher in any previous week's Quick Reads, but I think it is his highest ranking. The old, faithful QB ranking, as flawed as it is, says that was his 4th best game of the season. But QB ranking doesn't take into account sacks or fumbles. It was a solid game, but it seems odd that it might have been his best game of the season.

I already did a quick recap, but I'm finished watching the Rays beat the Red Sox. Now I want to kick the tires more on the win over Indianapolis.

On a baseball note, I watched the game five collapse at Boston. Tampa had a 7-0 (SEVEN RUNS!!!) lead and blew it. That should have been the end of them, but they came back and won game 7. If you don't already know who David Price is, there is still plenty of time to learn.

Back to football. This was the first game this season that:

• QB Aaron Rodgers didn't have more passing yards than his opponent.
• An opposing running back had 20 carries and did not run for over 100 yards.
• RB Ryan Grant ran for 100 yards.

None of these three items above was the key to the game. Rodgers didn't have any turnovers. RB Dominic Rhodes is not a good running back and it didn't look like the run defense did anything better in this game (except it was a great game for DT Ryan Pickett). Grant had over 100 yards, but it took him over 30 carries to get there.

What decided the game was the secondary. QB Peyton Manning was well protected, as usual. He's always one of the least sacked QBs in the NFL. They didn't force him into many, if any, bad throws. But the secondary locked down the Colts' receivers and came up with two huge INTs that were both returned for TDs. Those turned the final score into a blowout. I was worried that they would struggle against a good pass offense. They've looked great against some lousy QBs (Tavaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Brian Griese, Charlie Frye) and I thought Manning would be a different story. But the secondary is for real.

4-3, sitting tied on top of the NFC North going into the bye week, is not a bad place to be. They've got a brutal game in two weeks at Tennessee. Indianapolis plays at Tennessee next week on Monday Night Football to give some indication of how the Packers might play against them.

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What a way to go into the bye week. A few quick hits on the game:

Pass offense. QB Aaron Rodgers was his usual self, post shoulder injury, going 21 for 28 with 186 yards, 1 TD and zero turnovers. His biggest contribution was to keep the offense moving while not allowing any turnovers. Indianapolis did a good job covering the wide receivers, RB Brandon Jackson was the leading receiver, but the pass protection was fantastic.

Run offense. I expected this to be the difference between winning and losing, and boy was I wrong. RB Ryan Grant had a good day, 31 for 105 and 1 TD, but he was stuffed a lot against a pretty poor run defense. Still it was his best game of the season; he had a few good 1st down runs and the offensive line opened up a giant hole on his 11 yard TD run.

Run defense. RB Dominic Rhodes had a good game, running and receiving the ball, but it was only 20 for 73 yards (well under 4 yards/carry) and he wasn't much of a factor. He was about what I expected because he's not a good running back, but the Packers run defense isn't very good either.

Pass defense. The star of the show. CBs Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson were great against their wide receivers. Although he was a step slow on everyone, LB Brandon Chillar worked hard covering the middle of the field and is a very sure tackler. Obviously S Aaron Rouse and S Nick Collins stole the show with two INTs returned for TDs. The secondary has been great all season, but this was the first time they played a top tier pass offense and shut them down. They've shut down nearly every pass offense they've played this season, except Dallas.

Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 19th, 2008
3:15 CST, CBS
This is an open thread for the game.

Inactives from NFL.com:

Colts inactives: S Bob Sanders, CB Kelvin Hayden, RB Joseph Addai, TE Gijon Robinson, LB Buster Davis, G Daniel Federkeil, WR Roy Hall, DE Curtis Johnson.

Analysis: RB Dominic Rhodes will start in the absence of Addai, who is inactive. Rhodes is a nice No. 2 fantasy runner or flex starter against the Packers.

Packers inactives: QB Brian Brohm (3rd), S Atari Bigby, CB Al Harris, DE Jason Hunter, T Breno Giacomini, G Allen Barbre, WR James Jones, DT Mike Montgomery.

Analysis: QB Aaron Rodgers is active and will start, as expected. WR Jordy Nelson will see more work with Jones out, but he has little fantasy value. CB Charles Woodson is active.

No surprises. Bigby, Harris, and Montgomery would start if healthy, but they haven't been expecting them to play all week. The Colts will be without two of their stars; Sanders and Addai.

Another long injury report, but it doesn't seem as depressing now that the three game losing streak is over. There are many names on Indianapolis' injury report and two big ones; RB Joseph Addai and SS Bob Sanders. Tony Dungy hinted a few days ago that Sanders might come back this week, but there's no chance of that now. Two big losses for them.

Mike McCarthy had an all-injury related press conference on Friday. Harris is out, but probably back in two weeks, and DT Justin Harrell still won't be ready for a couple more weeks. The doubtful guys (Bigby, Hunter, Jones, Montgomery) are all out, although Bigby almost made it back this week. McCarthy didn't mention Lee, but he played last week through his bad back, and Clifton, Hawk, Rodgers, and Woodson have played in every game this season, so all the probable guys should play. Wells and Pickett are questionable, I expect both of them to miss the game, but McCarthy expects them both to play. The Packers will miss as few as three starters (Bigby, Harris and DE Cullen Jenkins, who is on I.R.) but could miss up to five.

On paper, this looks like a good matchup between two similar, slightly above average teams. These aren't the record breaking Colts of a couple seasons ago, but the Packers aren't looking like a team that played in the NFC Championship game last season either. Standings from NFL.com, and team rankings from Football Outsiders:

All similar, except Indianapolis can run the ball. Or they could before they lost RB Joseph Addai for a few weeks. RB Dominic Rhodes won't be shut out, but he is a big step down from Addai.

Indianapolis' run defense is just as big a concern for them as it is in Green Bay, especially since their Pro Bowl SS Bob Sanders should miss his fourth straight game. They were so desperate for help they almost let Buffalo trade them some damaged goods. The Packers run defense looked much better last week, but that was against Seattle and their offense is running on fumes. It would be a very good sign if they can limit Rhodes, but they haven't proven that they can stop a quality offense from running.

The matchup also plays into the Packers' defensive hands because the pass defense is the strength of the team. However, the Packers have faced a bunch of lousy QBs so far this season (Tavaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Brian Griese) and one QB that should never be allowed to play again in the NFL (Charlie Frye). When they did face a very good QB (Tony Romo), he had a pretty good game against them, in Lambeau. And that was back when DE Cullen Jenkins was around to provide a great pass rush. The Colts pass defense has stopped a lot of lousy QBs too (Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco) but QB David Garrard is pretty good and he did nothing against them in week 3.

Indianapolis is 2-0 on the road, but they only won by 4 points at 1-4 Houston and Brad Childress grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory against them in week 2 at Minnesota. They don't have any special ability to win on the road.

Both teams will be able to pass the ball. The Packers should be able to limit Indianapolis to under 100 yards rushing with Addai out. But can the Packers run the ball against them? That's the key to the game. When Indianapolis was off to a bad 1-2 start, they allowed four different RBs to have 100 yard rushing games. Running attacks the soft part of their defense, plus it keeps the Colts offense off the field and reduces the number of plays they can run. Unfortunately the Packers haven't been able to run against anyone and RB Ryan Grant is one of the worst RBs in the NFL (although most of that blame lies with the o-line).

The Packers have been getting by on turnovers for a big part of this season, and Indianapolis won't help them because they rarely give up more than two per game. Maybe special teams or the defense can come up with a big play, but you can't count on it. This game will all come back to the running game. The Packers can't keep up in a shoot out with QB Aaron Rodgers' bad shoulder and no running game, so then Indianapolis would win 28-17. But if Ryan Grant finally comes to life with a 100 yard game, and keeps moving the chains for 1st downs, then QB Peyton Manning will spend more time on the sidelines and the offense should have enough production to win 27-21.