After the loss to Dallas, I was as mad as I've ever been following a Packer loss.  Partly because I detest the Dallas Cowboys, and partly because I was convinced that Green Bay was on par with them, talent-wise.  After the loss to Tampa Bay, I was mildly irritated, but ultimately accepted it because Tampa's defense was underrated and forced the Packers to try and win by doing things they weren't good at.  After the loss to Atlanta, I freaked out.  Despite Atlanta's renaissance, they have enough holes on their roster to be beaten, and the Pack failed to capitalize.

So how do I feel after this loss?  Not much, by comparison to the other three.  I fully expected a loss, but felt like a win was in the cards.  Am I disappointed?  Of course, I'm always disappointed when Green Bay loses.  They'd have to go 19-0 for me to avoid any disappointment.  But it's not like this game was easy by any stretch of the imagination.  Tennessee is an elite football team this year (like you needed me to tell you that), and they won't lose unless they have a lapse in execution against a team good enough to take advantage of the opportunity.

The Titans were the better team, even though they didn't consistently show it.  Ultimately, I feel much worse about the Packers being 4-4 and one game behind the Chicago Bears (who won yesterday after being down 23-13 to Detroit) than this individual loss to Tennessee. 

Some things I took away from this game:

• Rodgers arguably had his worst game this season.  Yes, he threw three picks against Tampa and didn't play great against Dallas, but his completion percentage yesterday was a paltry 53.7% (22/41).  I'd attest most of this to Tennessee's vaunted pass defense.  He also did a great job keeping the lone TD drive alive with his scramble, punctuated in a short pass to Driver.  However, his two turnovers likely were the turning point(s) in the game.  His interception was especially inexcusable: it was a bad decision and a bad throw.  Whether he overthrew it or underthrew it, that pass was getting picked off because Jennings was trapped in bracket coverage and had no room to work because of the short field.  We've prided ourselves on your good decision making, Aaron.  Don't go and make us look stupid.
• Ryan Grant is starting to look like Ryan Grant again.  No big plays today, but 20 carries for 86 yards and a 4.3 ypc average are encouraging signs that the run game is starting to resurrect itself.
• Donald Driver, ladies and gentlemen!  He had a big stat day, going off for 7 catches worth 136 yards and a score.  Glad to see that he's still a threat in the passing game, especially in that sweet stop-and-go route in the fourth quarter.
• It seems that another one of Green Bay's receivers whose academic titles shall remain undisclosed didn't have a great game.  Yes, Greg Jennings had 79 yards on three catches (including a big 52-yard reception, which was a vintage Jennings YAC play), but according to some of you fine people, he did not perform the way he could/should have.
• Brady Poppinga, you better play nice or you won't get to play at all.  His personal foul late in the first quarter negated a nice pass defense by Al Harris, which changed a Titan's 4th and 10 to a Titan's 1st and 10.  I like Brady, but stupid stunts like this is what comes back to haunt you in close games.
• Oh, yeah, Al Harris is back!  He didn't appear on the box score, but it's great to see that he's recovered from his injury and healthy enough to play.  Welcome back, Al.
• Speaking of returns from injury, how about that Justin Harrell?  He only had 2 tackles in the game, but it's great to see that the coaches have enough confidence in him to throw him out there against one of the better offensive lines in football. 
• LenDale White's 54-yard run was the result of excellent run blocking by Tennessee.  However, the safeties needed to take better angles to avoid the blockers and stop that play after 12 yards instead of letting Sir Jiggly Belly rip a 50+ yarder.  I'd expect that kind of play out of Chris Johnson, not Jerome Bettis v.2.0.
• By the end of the fourth quarter, the Packer defense was gassed.  Unable to force any turnovers (whereas they had to take the field after Rodgers' two turnovers) and getting beaten up by Tennessee's run game, Kerry Collins did what Kerry Collins does best and made safe throws to move the chains.  We got lucky that Bironas missed the first one, but the overtime drive was more of the same from Collins and White, and you know they weren't going to miss the FG.

There were few surprises in this game.  Aaron Rodgers played ok, but worse than he usually does.  The Titans didn't overwhelm Green Bay on either side of the ball, but did what they're great at doing enough to eke out the close win.  In summary, this was a winnable game against a great team that Green Bay squandered one way or another.  But, it was close enough to (hopefully) give the guys focus on what they need to improve before visiting the Metrodome next week.  The important thing is that Green Bay has a chance to regroup before the all-important two-week stretch that includes a trip to Minnesota and the first game against Chicago, a stretch which will likely determine Green Bay's playoff berth (or lack thereof).

P.S. Make sure you guys vote tomorrow.

No moral victory here. They played hard, did a lot of things great, but did some things wrong, and lost a close game they could have won. Just my quick, immediately after the game is over review.

• The offense had to get everyone involved. Run the ball and get all the WRs involved. It was Grant's best game of the season. He's had a bad season, but he does keep getting better. Jennings and Driver had big games, but I was hoping to see more from Nelson. Rodgers has been outstanding, but the turnovers are starting to pile up. Don't look just at the INTs, he's had a few fumbles too. His fumble and INT weren't killer, they cost the Packers at least 3 points, as much as 10 points, but in an OT, close game, they were critical.
• K Mason Crosby was perfect on FGs. CB Will Blackmon took some big hits and had a couple good returns. But they really need a big return into Titans territory, forced turnover, some big play to beat a great team on the road. Yea, it's asking a lot, but they needed it.
• Tennessee's offense average 4.3 yards per pass attempt, and 4.9 yards per rush. A lot of those yards came late in the game when the defense was tired, but they all still count. And a lot of them came on the game winning FG drive in OT (didn't even give the offense a chance). This complaint isn't just on the players, I wanted to see the coaches let the defense play up, commit to stop the run, and let them try to beat our corners in single coverage. I lost track how many INTs they dropped in the secondary. Two teammates went for the ball on two occassions and broke each other up from the INT. The defense was tough, physical, they did a lot right. But in the end, they couldn't stop the run, and couldn't come up with a single turnover.
• This was the 3rd loss this season when the other team (Tampa Bay, Atlanta, now Tennessee) just ran the ball right down the Packers throat late in the game to win. In the other loss, they allowed Dallas to run all over them early and the game wasn't close in the 4th quarter. One way to look at that is the team could be 7-1 if the run defense could have stepped up late in the game. The other way to look at it is the run defense is going to keep the Packers from winning the close games. Since I've seen no indication that the run defense is improving, any team that has an above average run offense that can keep the score close late in the game should beat the Packers.
• Mike McCarthy went for one 4th down early in the game (and called a pass play to rookie TE Jermichael Finley who to that point had never caught an NFL pass?) that led to a Tennessee FG, and defensive coordinator Bob Sanders should have done more to stuff the run. The coaching wasn't awful, but they didn't give the team an edge in a tough road game.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, November 2nd, 2008
Noon CST, FOX
This is an open thread for the game.

Inactives from NFL.com:

Packers: QB Brian Brohm (3rd), CB Pat Lee, RB DeShawn Wynn, LB Desmond Bishop, LB Danny Lansanah, T Brenno Giacomini, G Allen Barbre, WR James Jones.

Analysis: Jones wasn’t on the injury report but is a surprise inactive. WR Jordy Nelson is active and will be the team’s third wide receiver.

Titans: QB Chris Simms (3rd), WR Paul Williams, WR Chris Davis, RB Chris Henry, LB Colin Alfred, T Michael Otto, DE William Hayes, DT Kevin Vickerson.

Analysis: DE Kyle Vanden Bosch is active and will start, so he’s a safe option for IDP leaguers.

The only surprise for me, other than spelling Breno's name wrong, was WR James Jones was inactive. He's been out of the loop for a few weeks while he's been out with various leg injuries, but I thought he might be the 3rd WR since WR Jordy Nelson had his own injury during Thursday's practice. Instead, the Packers aren't worried about Nelson and felt comfortable leaving Jones inactive. This is a big deal because I expect the Packers need to get all their WRs involved in the offense today if they expect to beat Tennessee.

DE Kyle Vanden Bosch's return is a big deal for Tennessee because they have depth issues at end, they played most of the Indianapolis game with only two DEs available, and he's a Pro Bowl player who is very important to their pass rush. I don't expect Vanden Bosch to run wild against the Packers, but they might have been able to exploit his replacement.

This can't be the Packers injury report? The Packers have had one to three starters out with an injury nearly every week this season. CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby have been constant old friends on it for weeks. Now nearly everyone is healthy. It's like they're a typical NFL team!

There are some notable names; Clifton, Rodgers, and Woodson. But those three have been listed for weeks and always manage to play through their injuries. Only Clifton's got so bad that he had to come out during the Atlanta game in week 5. Rodgers and Woodson have been playing great despite their injuries.

It looks like Hunter and Lansanah should be available, but Bishop has a hamstring injury, the Packers are very cautious with those, and he won't play.

The biggest loss is Nelson, who just got hurt during Thursday's practice. Tennessee's pass defense is fantastic, but they have had some problems against number 3 receivers. They're "only" average (15th in the league) against them. But actual number 3 WR James Jones has been back in practice all week, after missing most of the season so far with a variety of injuries. Getting Jones, or Nelson if he can play, involved in the offense early and often is very important because they need to get everyone involved in the offense if they want to beat a defense as talented as Tennessee's.

Mike Tanier has a good Packers/Titans preview up, and I love the Tubby Thunder reference:

"The Packers are coming off their bye week. They are healthier than they have been since the start of the season, and Al Harris may actually return from the spleen injury that threatened his career. Harris will have minimal impact against a team that never throws to its receivers. The Packers need a big week from their run defense, which is ranked 29th in the NFL in DVOA. If they cannot find a way to stop Tubby Thunder and Greased Lightning, they'll get lulled into a downtempo game where one big play by the Titans defense could turn the tide.

I'm still a Titans doubter, but I like their matchup this week."

I've been focused on the run offense in this game too (Tennessee can run/Packers can't stop the run) and it's part of Mitchell's preview. The statistical analysis, rankings from Football Outsiders.com, indicates that the Titans' defense stops everything, the Packers defense stops the pass, but can't stop the run, so Titans win:

Instead I'm focused on what I saw during last Monday night game when Indianapolis played at Tennessee.

1. Indianapolis is similar to Green Bay this season; can't run (since RB Joseph Addai was hurt), quarterback is struggling with injuries, run defense is awful, and pass defense is solid. Still the game was tied going into the 4th quarter, and the game changing plays were two questionable 4th down conversion attempts by Indianapolis that failed. If Indianapolis can play Tennessee tight for three quarters, the Packers can.
2. Eight men in the box. Indianapolis knew they had to stop Tennessee from running, so they brought a safety in the box as an extra linebacker. Tennessee should have made them pay and challenged them deep down the field. But they didn't. According to the NFL.com game log, Collins had three passes listed as "pass deep" in the 2nd half. He completed one for 23 yard, but the other two were incomplete. The Packers can stop any NFL run defense if they are allowed to play eight men in the box. Defensive coordinator Bob Sanders will probably play his base defense at first, making sure Tennessee hasn't changed their mind and started opening up the vertical passing game, but at some point he should start crowding the line of scrimmage and make it difficult for Tennessee's offense to do anything.

The Packers will need a big play or two to win on the road against a great team. Maybe S Nick Collins has another big INT. Maybe CB Will Blackmon scores on a return against Tennessee's below average special teams unit, currently ranked 23rd by Football Outsiders.

It has to help that the Packers are rested and healthy since they are coming off the bye week, while Tennessee has a short week after playing last Monday night.

This game might be a replay of the week 4 loss at Tampa when the Packers traveled south to play a great team and were soundly beat. QB Brian Griese threw 3 INTs in that game which kept the score close, but the Packers were beaten in almost every other way possible during that game. But the Packers are a good team, with a good coaching staff, and they can win this game. I've got no score prediction. This one is up to the Packers and whether they play like the team that got kicked around in Tampa, or the one that did the kicking two weeks ago against Indianapolis.

Don't get me wrong, I know that all 16 games in the NFL season are equally important.  They all count the same as the rest in the W/L column.  The more you win, the better your chances are.  It's simple.

I also believe in big games.  I believe that certain games are more important than others for reasons that aren't really measurable.  Momentum is a concept that people can visualize, but doesn't really exist in a measurable form.  Sure, a win or loss streak can be measured, but momentum is so much more than that.  It's a level of confidence, a swagger, the ability to execute and achieve your goal.  Winning big games can help a team get that.

This week's game against Tennessee is important, just like the other seven that we've played so far.  But is it a big game?  You could argue that point pretty well.  I, however, classify it differently; it's a set-up game for the real big game.

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Normally I don't care about a Colts/Titans game, but this was an interesting game to watch for Packer fans. Maybe you can nitpick this game and say it wasn't a big win for Tennessee, but their fans think it was one of their biggest in a long time.

The final score was 31-21, but Tennessee's defense really relaxed after their last score made it 31-14. The Colts got a meaningless late TD to make it a 10 point game. But the game could have been closer than that:

• On the Titans' TD drive in the 3rd quarter, the drive should have stalled before mid-field. But a illegal use of the hands penalty on 3rd down, and later a pass interference call, kept it alive. Penalties weren't a major problem for the Colts, they only had 5 for 35 yards, but it killed them on this drive. Those two penalties changed the game.
• On two consecutive possessions, near the end of the 3rd quarter and near the beginning of the 4th quarter, the Colts decided to go for it on 4th down instead of punting. They didn't convert either 4th down attempt and the Titans scored after each change of possession.
• The late INT off the hands of TE Dallas Clark that led to a TD run by RB Chris Johnson on the next play was obviously a big swing too, but that happened after the Colts were down 24-14 and needed two scores in the final five minutes. Obviously it was a big play, obviously it put the game away, but I thought the game was done after the Titans 2nd TD so I didn't think this play had as big an impact on the game.

Those were the big differences in the game. If you saw the Titans up 31-14 late in the 4th quarter, it might have seemed like it was a blowout, but it was close most of the game. That's good news for Packer fans because the Packers and Colts are two similar teams.

How did the Colts matchup against the Titans?

• TE Dallas Clark killed them with 2 TDs. But don't expect TE Donald Lee to go wild at Tennessee. Clark is more like a 3rd WR than a TE, and Tennessee is average against number 3 WRs. The Packers need WR Jordy Nelson to have a break out game.
• DT Albert Haynesworth is a rock. He's the best DT in the NFL. He doesn't get moved and he creates a pass rush up the middle. The Packers' interior o-line is going to have their hands full, and will probably double team him all game. Journeyman DT Tony Brown had a good game too, but he really abused backup rookie OL Mike Pollak and I expect RG Jason Spitz to play much better than Pollak. 
• You can't sack QB Kerry Collins. The Titans o-line is very good, and Collins has only been sacked ONCE this season. This after Collins was always good, on average, for about 3 sacks per game in his long career. The offense is designed to get rid of the ball quickly, but the Colts still had trouble getting anywhere near Collins on the rush.
• Tennessee won't throw the ball further then 10 yards down the field. Collins spent most the game throwing short 5 yard passes to the tight ends and running backs. Indianapolis responded by putting eight men in the box, only one safety deep, and it did slow down Tennessee's running game. Eventually Collins started to throw more deep passes, he had a couple nice 15 yard pass completions and almost had a couple big gains. I'm sure they're not the best deep passing team in the NFL, but it's not like they can't do it. They choose not to do it. Considering Collins hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a game this season, I don't expect them to open up the deep ball against the Packers either.
• RB LenDale White. He's leading the NFL with 10 rushing TDs, but he's only averaged over 4 yards/carry in one game this season. It took him 10 carries to get 13 yards and his 2 TDs against Indianapolis. He's successful because the Titans are, but they aren't successful because of him.
• RB Chris Johnson. He's great, a very hard runner. Plus he's got a lot of speed, but he didn't get many chances to show it off against Indianapolis. He hasn't been recorded with a fumble this season, but he had poor hands in this game. He did have one fumble that the refs missed when he was tackled from behind in the 1st half. He also had a couple dropped passes, including one that should have been intercepted. The Packers' linebackers and secondary are going to have to do a very good job tackling Johnson to keep him contained and prevent any big plays.
• Tennessee's pass coverage. Indianapolis did a good job protecting QB Peyton Manning, but the Titans were missing their top pass rusher, Pro Bowl DE Kyle Vanden Bosch. He could be back next week. Still Manning had nowhere to throw, except Clark got open a few times. The coverage in the secondary was very tight, and it should be no different against the Packers.
• Tennessee's run defense. With Vanden Bosch out, DE Jacob Ford started in his place. He's undersized at 256 lbs. and the Colts had some success running at him. The Titans other DE, Jevon Kearse, has never been known for his run defense either. Mike McCarthy should be planning to run off-tackle on several plays next Sunday. I was wondering earlier this week whether the Packers should abandon the run and pass most of the time, but now I see that the Packers have to get RB Ryan Grant involved in the game. He can have some success running against Tennessee. After watching Tennessee's suffocating pass defense, the Packers will need to get something from the run offense because they won't be able to pass the ball for much of the game.