As has often been the case this season, I was unable to monitor the game this week.  This time, it was determined far in advance that I was to be pre-disposed, as I and a few acquaintances were celebrating the belated birthday of my girlfriend in New York.  It was only the second time I had ever been to the Big Apple; there is a noticable difference between it and our fair Wisconsin towns.  A few notes on NYC:

• There are a lot of people.  Seriously.  If you haven't been there, it is a claustrophobic's nightmare.  You cannot and will not find a restaurant, coffee place, theatre, subway station, or public area that is not oversaturated with people.  This is doubly true when a celebrity is involved.  For example, Ludacris was in NYC yesterday.  I only know it was him because one of the NYPD officers who was directing traffic said so.  When Luda arrived at whatever building he was going into, people went absolutely insane and rushed that street.  It took 10 minutes to navigate past one city block.  A short one, too.
• There is never anyone at the nut vendors.  Honey roasted variations of almonds, cashews, peanuts, walnuts, any-kind-of-nut-you-can-think-of...NOBODY WANTS THEM.  I have yet to see anyone purchase nuts from a cart.  Which makes me feel better about the level of common sense in people.
• Cab drivers hate slow cars.  I was in a cab going from Penn Station to 60th and York, and we were driving behind one of those black Ford cars that seem to be everywhere these days.  The driver in the car slowed down to pick somebody up, and our cab driver layed on the horn.  The black Ford ignored him and came to a stop as the person they were picking up was walking from their building to the car.  The driver must have hit a switch or something, because he let loose the absolute loudest car horn blast I've ever heard.  Needless to say, the black Ford driver was perturbed, and actually started moving forward, making the passnger do that awkward half-run that you do when you're trying to catch a departing bus while carrying three full shopping bags.  And the cab driver was still pissed off.

After the show, our group was walking back to Penn Station to catch a train, and we decided to go through Times Square.  I saw a homeless guy asking for change for his invisible dog's medicine (he had one of those gag leashes that stays off the ground), a Batman costume arguing with a Statue of Liberty costume, and a comedy club promoter tell me he loved me after I declined his invitation to attend the show that evening.  Needless to say, I had completely forgotten that it was Sunday, much less that there was football going on.

Thankfully, the massive sports ticker in Times Square hadn't forgotten.  I managed to notice it right as the following message scrawled across the board:

GRANT RUNS FOR 147 YD AND TD IN 37-3 ROUT OF BEARS

In response to such happy news, I raised my fists to the sky and started a-whoopin' and a-hollerin', which coincidentally is commonplace behavior in the city, and especially in Times Square.  The costume-Batman may have told me to eff-off, but I didn't notice.

I guess I could have started this post by just saying that I was in NYC on Sunday and therefore couldn't watch the game, but then I wouldn't have related those amusing-yet-insightful anecdotes with you, my fair readers.  And who could live in a world without such stories?  Not I.  Anyway, on to the musings!

• The entire team was just clicking.  Like Brandon said, this game was probably a fluke, but it's nice to see the Packers win one so convincingly.
• Ryan Grant.  Who?  Ryan Grant.  He's back.  The ticker-topic running back made Chicago's then-top-5 ranked run defense look positively silly.  This is due in no small part to the offensive line finally getting their act together and creating holes
• A.J. Hawk may have found his niche.  Leading the way with 7 tackles, Hawk's performance has decided any question as to Barnett's replacement for the season and, if he keeps it up, successor for next season.

Most importantly, however, is that the win brings the Packers back to 5-5, tied with Chicago and Minnesota (who lost to Tampa Bay) for the division lead with 6 games left.  While a .500 record is nothing to brag about, in this year's NFC North it's more than enough to contend for the playoffs, especially when Green Bay has a 3-1 record in the division while holding an edge over Chicago (until their next meeting) and Minnesota having 2 division losses (one to GB).

Everyone knows how important a game this was, especially after last week's letdown.  The Packers have fought their way back into playoff consideration, and the goal is still within reach.  But I ask...

Where did this Packer team come from? This was not the same team that was outplayed last week in Minnesota. Unfortunately this game looks like a fluke. The Packers are better then their record would indicate, but they don't stomp their opponent 37-3 every week (obviously). The real shock is that this is a complete turn around from last week's loss at Minnesota.

Except for the turnovers, and QB Gus Frerotte had some killer turnovers, the Packers turned it all around in one week. Teams don't turn it all around that dramatically in one week. The truth is somewhere in between; the Packers aren't as bad as the team that lost in Minnesota, but not as good as the one that crushed the Bears.

• RB Ryan Grant and the offensive line. It was a pretty simple plan; offensive tackle block defensive end, offensive guard block defensive tackle, fullback take out linebacker, open a running lane for Grant, he makes at least one defender miss on the tackle while he runs for a big gain, and repeat. They've been trying it all season, and they've been getting better every week for the last few weeks since Grant's hamstring injury has fully healed, but this was the first time they've completely dominated a run defense. Some credit is due to RB Brandon Jackson, who had been quietly averaging 5 yards/carry this season, got his first extended rushing duties in several weeks, and again averaged 5 yards/carry. And Chicago's run defense was not just some run defense. Football Outsiders had them ranked as the 2nd best coming into this game. They had allowing just under 75 yards/game. After the Packers ran for 200 yards against them, they've allowed 87.4 yards/game.
• Defense. A typical drive for Chicago started somewhere between their 20-30 yard line. They couldn't go deep because their wide receivers couldn't beat the Packers' cornerbacks or safeties deep. They were able to run the ball a little, RB Matt Forte averaged over 4 yards/carry, but he had nothing over 10 yards. They could complete short crossing routes to Forte or TE Greg Olsen, but that didn't produce any big plays either. They had to work their way down the field on every drive. And when they found themselves in a 3rd down situation, the defense stepped up and Chicago was only 3 for 12 on 3rd down. No one player deserves credit for the defensive performance, everyone seemed to do their job, which was why Chicago's offense looked so inept.
• QB Aaron Rodgers. He made one mistake. Early in the 2nd quarter, WR Donald Driver broke deep down the middle, but LB Brian Urlacher was providing the short coverage. Rodgers underthrew the ball and it went right to Urlacher. It was too bad, Driver was open and could have had a long TD reception if Rodgers could have gotten some more air under the ball. Other than that one mistake, Rodgers was near perfect, completing 76% of his passes, no other turnovers, two TD passes, no sacks, and a QB rating of 105.8.
  

The Packers have had trouble against Chicago's defense in recent seasons. Chicago has been able to drop their linebackers deep to take away the slant routes which allowed their cornerbacks and safeties to take away the deep sidelines and middle. All that the Packers could do in some games was throw dump off passes or try and find the very small hole in the zones.

In this game, Chicago's linebackers, except for the one INT described above by Urlacher, just weren't a factor. Rodgers took what he was given and completed passes to nine different receivers. Sometimes he found WR Greg Jennings or Driver on a slant, but he was content to dump it off to TE Donald Lee, who ended the game with the most receptions (6) and none for more than 8 yards. Balanced out with a strong running game, and some poor Chicago tackling, the offense clicked and put up big numbers.

It's only one game, too bad you aren't allowed to rollover some of those scores, but it has to give the entire team a big confidence boost. The run defense is still a problem, although LB A.J. Hawk looked great in his first game at middle linebacker. He was rarely blocked out and seemed to be involved in nearly every play. The pass defense has been fantastic all season, and the pass offense is there for nearly every game. Now the run offense is clicking too. The key for the Packers is to build an early lead. Then the opposing team must throw against the fantastic pass defense instead of running against the suspect run defense.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 16th, 2008
Noon CST, FOX
This is an open thread for the game.

Inactives from NFL.com:

Bears: QB Caleb Hanie (3rd), CB Marcus Hamilton, RB Kevin Jones, T Fred Miller, DT Matt Toeaina, WR Earl Bennett, NT Anthony Adams, DE Ervin Baldwin.

Analysis: RB Adrian Peterson will back up RB Matt Forte with Jones inactive. WR Brandon Lloyd is active and will see his first action in several weeks.

Packers: QB Brian Brohm (3rd), CB Pat Lee , RB DeShawn Wynn, LB Nick Barnett, T Breno Giacomini, G Allen Barbre, WR Ruvell Martin, DE Jeremy Thompson.

Analysis: QB Aaron Rodgers and CB Charles Woodson are active and will start, as expected. The absence of Barnett is good news for the value of Bears RB Matt Forte this week.

RB Adrian Peterson, the Chicago one, had a 100 yard game last season against the Packers, so he'll get a chance to run up some yards against them instead of RB Kevin Jones. It's hard to imagine WR Brandon Lloyd will make much of a difference because Lloyd's been awful during his career and the Packers' secondary has been outstanding this season, but Lloyd was having a very good 2008 season before he was hurt.

The Packers are going with only two RBs again this week since Wynn is inactive. Thompson has a groin injury and is out for the game, but he was awful last week at Minnesota (although he probably was awful because he was hurt). It's not clear exactly who is going to replace Barnett in the middle, but all signs point to LB A.J. Hawk with LB Brandon Chillar stepping into Hawk's outside linebacker spot, but the Packers have been intentionally vague about how their defense will play line up on Sunday. WR Ruvell Martin is inactive so don't expect to see any five WR sets.

Chicago hasn't lost at Lambeau since 2003, and Lovie Smith has never lost at Lambeau as a head coach, so it's obviously a big monkey on the Packers' back. Football Outsiders says the Packers are the 7th best team in the NFL (seriously) and it's all because the NFL is "kinda good" this season:

"Right now, 16 different teams are either 6-3 or 5-4. That's half the league! With so many teams hovering around "kinda good," only three teams are better than 6-3, and only three teams are 4-5. By comparison, last year at this point nine different teams were 4-5...

Below the top three, things begin to diverge from conventional wisdom. The Packers may only be 4-5, but they rank seventh in DVOA, basically tied with the 7-2 Panthers. (They lost to the Vikings, and moved up three spots anyway because the system thinks they outplayed Minnesota by a small amount.)"

I guess that shows how important the quarterback is to their system. The Packers were outplayed by every Viking not named Gus Frerotte, and Frerotte played so badly that he almost made up for all the good work from his teammates.

While the Packers are clearly the best 4-5 team in the NFL, Chicago is one of the best 5-4 teams:

I really want to focus on the special teams rankings because when the Packers got crushed last season in Chicago 35-7 it was because of special teams. P Jon Ryan dropped one snap and had two other punts blocked. That was a unique game because of the freezing cold weather, but it still was a blowout because the special teams were awful. This season, Chicago's special teams are below average and one reason is that KR Devin Hester is not the same guy he was in 2006 and 2007. 

Looking at QB Kyle Orton, he appears to be having a season similar to Tennessee's QB Kerry Collins. Orton is better, but, just like Collins, he's playing it safe and not turning the ball over. Orton has 8 turnovers (fumbles and INTs) in 8 games, but 4 of them happened in the game vs. Philadelphia. He's had no turnovers in 5 of the 8 games he's started. Collins didn't have a great game against the Packers, so I don't expect Orton will be great either. But just like Collins, he won't turn the ball over either.

RB Matt Forte isn't having a great season, but he's been playing as well or better than three backs who killed the Packers this season (Marion Barber, Michael Turner, and Earnest Graham) so he should have a 100 yard game if Chicago can take the lead or keep it close.

Chicago's run defense is outstanding, so RB Ryan Grant should not be a huge factor in the game.

Chicago's pass defense is struggling. They compare to teams like Atlanta and Indianapolis, and QB Aaron Rodgers played well against both of those teams.

In all four of the Packers' wins, they built leads of over 10 points and managed to hang on for the win. Only Detroit managed to retake the lead, and the Packers had to come from behind to beat them. But not every team is as bad as Detroit. To win this game, the Packers have to get an early lead from their pass offense or their special teams and make Chicago throw the ball into the teeth of the Packers' outstanding pass defense.

The loss to Minnesota can only be compared to a swift kick to the man-region.  If you want to subject yourself to further crotchal torture and read more about it, check out recaps here, here, and here.  In fact, here's the best way to describe the replay of Mason Crosby's final field goal attempt:

But neither we nor the team can afford to let our disappointment spill over into this week.  The loss happened, we cannot dwell on it any further; the team is now 4-5 and one game back in the NFC North.  The sooner we accept that, the sooner we can focus on the next game.

Next up, we get to take on 5-4 Chicago, the current division leader.  Allow me to illustrate the importance of this game:

NFC North Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	TD	Home	Road	Div	Pct	Conf	Pct	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Chicago Bears	5	4	0	.556	237	194	43	27	3-2	2-2	3-0	1.000	4-3	.571	1-1	1L	3-2
Minnesota Vikings	5	4	0	.556	210	215	-5	22	4-1	1-3	2-2	.500	4-2	.667	1-2	2W	4-1
Green Bay Packers	4	5	0	.444	237	206	31	27	2-2	2-3	2-1	.667	3-4	.429	1-1	2L	2-3
Detroit Lions	0	9	0	.000	151	277	-126	17	0-4	0-5	0-4	.000	0-7	.000	0-2	9L	0-5

This is a tight division.  Like, collapsed-mine-shaft tight.  If Green Bay can overcome Chicago next Sunday, that will improve their divisional record to 3-1, giving them the edge in that category.  And I can almost guarantee that the divisional record is going to determine a tiebreaker late in the season.

In short, beating Chicago next week is quite possibly the last chance Green Bay has to stay in playoff contention.  A win will pull them back up to 5-5 with 6 games remaining and a shot at overtaking Minnesota if and when Minnesota falters.  A loss puts them at 4-6 and a full 2 games behind Chicago and playoffs all but an illusion.

The team must improve in order to hang with the surprising Bears.  If they do not clean up their run defense and establish rhythm on offense, next week will be a very disappointing one.  Here are three things that must happen:

1. Force Rex Grossman into mistakes.  With Kyle Orton still nursing an ankle injury, the Sex Cannon figures to make another start.  If the secondary can get three interceptions off of Gus Frerotte, they can get some picks off of Rex Grossman.  Grossman isn't a good quarterback by any means, but he is capable of performing well in stretches.  After all, he did play on the same Bears team that made the Super Bowl a few years back.  Our defense must continue its admirable performance against the pass and force Sexy Rexy into making dumb mistakes to set up our struggling offense.
2. Limit rookie Matt Forte.  I purposefully stayed away from him during my annual fantasy football draft.  My reasoning: rookie running backs, while they have an easier transition from college to pro-level football, are usually not productive.  Matt Forte has bucked that trend to the tune of 713 yards rushing and 282 yards recieving with a grand total of 7 touchdowns.  Not as impressive as last year's rookie running back phenom, but he can flat-out play.  The Green Bay run defense is abysmal (worsened first with the loss of Cullen Jenkins and now Nick Barnett), and if they cannot keep the Bears from running the ball effectively, this game is in jeopardy.
3. Attack, attack, attack!  Chicago's defense is uncharacteristically vulnerable this year, mostly due to injuries to major members of their defensive secondary.  This vulnerability contributes to their 30th-ranked pass defense, which is an open window for the Green Bay offense.  While the Bears boast the 4th-best rush defense in the league, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and the rest of the gang need to establish some sort of rhythm in the passing game.  That means the line must protect the quarterback, Rodgers must get rid of the ball in a timely fashion, and recievers must get open.  All three of these things must happen early in the game so the Packers can establish some offensive momentum in the first half, something they have sorely missed in weeks prior.

 This is it, ladies and gentlemen.  The fate of the 2008-2009 Green Bay Packers' postseason destiny will play out this Sunday at Lambeau Field at 12:00 PM CST.  It's time to put up or shut up.