Packers over/under in season wins is set at 12. I know it's way too early, but Vegas knows the NFL season never ends. The Pack went 15-1 with an abysmal defense, which just got a huge infuse of talent. If the defense shapes up to even slightly resemble the 2010 season, I can see a 13+ win season. But, it's not that easy. A 13+ win season has only been accomplished four previous times in team history. There is so much parity in the league too. The schedule sets up nice, but it's way too early to evaluate the schedule. 13+ wins is definitely a possibility, but an 11- or 12-win season is more likely, and just fine to get them in good position for the playoffs too.

Hello, football fans, and welcome to the 24-hour APC Open Thread! Many thanks to Kevin for allowing this silliness.

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Maybe I'm just a middle aged, old school, 3 bar helmet loving football purist. I have read and disagreed with alot of the statements on this website regarding a who-cares attitude about the running game theme. I have read the long winded articles by Tyler Dunne and others who have almost made me think that I didn't understand this new theory that a running game is a waste of time. I had almost given up, and agreed with the theory that it is ok to throw the ball on 3rd and 1, 3rd and 2, or (gulp) 4th and 2. I had almost given into a Madden-Xbox type future for my beloved Packers.

Today, I have found an alli. I am not alone. I have a a tag team partner in this fight. A friend to unexpectedly help me as I take my beatdown from the masses. Here is a reply I found to a post on this very website by FourEyesBrewing.

" we need a solid running game to a) close out games, b) make our passing game more effective (if that’s possible), and c) give your D a breather. When we’re up by 7 and have the ball with 4 minutes left in the game, you don’t want to stop the clock and you don’t want to give the ball back. We were pretty bad at that last year but a solid running game that can pick up a first down and burn the clock is important. Making defenses respect our running game opens up play action pass. And if we score in 37 seconds on each drive, our defense can’t get a breather. Running the game and owning the clock will keep the opponent’s QB on the bench getting cold and anxious. I don’t think we need a star, but to say the running game is a low priority is short-sighted. "

Thank you FourEyesBrewing for running out of the locker room unexpectedly to save me from the evils of a pass-happy one dimensional offense that's too unbalanced and entirely too new school for my retro heart. Thank you for joining me in the fight to remind people that we won another Superbowl with Edgar Bennett (a workhorse grind it out running back) and went to back to back superbowls with a more balanced offense. We all love #12 and the offensive show that he puts on weekly, it would be awesome to bring in a running game to balance out the gameplan, keep the defense honest, hog the ball possession, and close out games Rollie Fingers style.

@Blue58set

What games do you guys remember where the packers fell into a trap game with a lesser opponent over the years? How bout games the Packers won but they struggled with an horrible team. I am talking about every single year you guys can remember ever since you became a Packer fan. Name at least 5 games. Here are my 5 games where the Packers lost or even won but struggled. 1. 1997- 41-38 loss to the 0-10 Colts. 2. 2001- We were 7-1 and we lost at home to the 4-4 Falcons 23-20. 3. In week 2 in 2009 we lost at home to the Bengals 31-24 in Lambeau. 4. 1997 I remember we were 7-2 and struggled with the 2-7 Rams. We won like 17-7. 5. When we lost to the Lions 7-3 in Detroit the year we won the super bowl.

OTAs have begun and the roster now full, and one major weakness sticks out to me. We do not have alot of experience at running back. Of the 5 RBs shape on the 2012-2013 Packer Roster (6 if you count Kuhn), James Starks is suddenly the elder statesmen of the group. I am overjoyed the front office decided not to bring back Ryan Grant, as I don't think I could calmly sit through another year of the 25/44 platoon. Grant was a good player for many years, but it was time to try something new. After watching the offseason player movement, I wish they had signed (or will sign) a veteran RB. I understand that the pile to pick off of is bargain basement and very sketchy ( Justin Forsett, Jerious Norwood, Derrick Ward, etc.) But as of now, we would start the season with 2 rookies, 2 2nd year players with extremely limited playing time, and #44 penciled in as the starter. Starks has had major issues with his pass blocking in his short career, and that's with Edgar Bennett spending hours with him to improve to the sub-par level he is currently at. I liked what I saw from Alex Green last year before the injury, and I definitely was impressed with Brandon Saine, but what we saw was an extremely small sample size. I fear that as great as our offense is with Aaron at the helm, if our running game continues to be non-existent, I fear this will eventually come back to haunt us in a big way. We are extremely lucky that the weapons we have at every position in the passing game are so tremendously talented that we can overcome this problem and keep the defense honest, even though they know we are going to run minimally. I am not asking for a 35 carry 125 yds per game feature back, but just a bit more consistency in our running game. With the experience level of the group that is currently inked for this year, I am definitely worried.

@Blue58set

The vast majority of roster turnover has already happened. There might be a few players not yet on the roster who squeeze out one of the 90, but by & large, this is the group who will face cuts down to 80 on the 28th of August & the final cutdown to 53 on the 2nd of September. The following is an early projection at who makes the roster.
Players with a 75% chance or better of making the 53
Players with a 75% chance or better of making the roster, but may not count against the 53 to start the season
Players with a 25-75% chance of making the 53
Players with a 25% chance or less of making the 53

See the full list & depth chart after the jump.

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Now that the draft is over and done with, the Packers have their 90 man roster, and no further signings are expected, unless Ryan Grant comes back home, it’s time to play armchair GM. Jesus, 3 months is going to be a long time until we start seeing some steamy hot green and gold action. I’m going to break my analysis down by position and provide a depth chart, along with even a projected practice squad.

Offense

Nothing much changes as far as the starters are concerned. Rodgers, Starks in Platoon, Kuhn, Finley, Jennings, Nelson, Newhouse, Lang, Sitton, and Bulaga. The only change is at Center, where we sacrificed experience and possibly falling skills for a short shelf life and cheap price tag. I’m good with Saturday at Center for a year or two, but I was slightly disappointed in the fact that we did not get a C in the draft.

QB (2+1) – Rodgers is the starter, Harrell is the backup. I see BJ Coleman missing the team, but playing well enough to secure a PS position.

RB (4) – Starks starts in platoon with Brandon Saine. Green locks up the 3rd down back. Kuhn is our Swiss Army knife in the backfield.

TE (4+1) – Finley starts, DJ Williams and Ryan Taylor look to ascend to the top of the depth chart with their versatility. Tom Crabtree makes the team as well, but is low on the depth chart. Williams also spots Kuhn in the backfield in some sets. Andrew Quarless starts the season on the PUP, and will shift over to IR depending on whether or not there is an injury somewhere in the TE/WR corps.

WR(6+2) – Jennings(S), Nelson(S), Cobb, and Jones have their positions locked in. It’s amazing to have such a deep core with experience with their QB. I look to very special things with a 3 WR set with Jennings and Cobb on one side, Nelson stretching the other side. Driver redoes his contract and retires a Packer. Although his skillset is deteriorating, he’s got one more in him to go. I’ve got no problem having Gurley on the roster either, because of his size and ability to go after punts and kicks. Special teams will be his bread and butter this year; hopefully adding some timely catches if needed. Dale Moss and Shaky Smithson make the practice squad providing depth. Smithson would be called up if Cobb is injured primarily as a kick/punt returner. SF showed what not having a solid KR/PR backup can do to a team. Moss is more of an experiment. Basketball players make great football players, and with his size and speed, he could do well… in a year or two.

O-Line (9+1) – by position, since there is some overlapping in the depth chart

OT – Newhouse (LT) and Bulaga (RT) are the starters, with Sherrod and Datko backing up if injuries or if Newhouse has to move inside because of an injury there.

OG – Lang (LG) and Sitton (RG) are the starters, with starting T Newhouse filling in in the event of injuries, and EDS filling in if multiple injuries.

C – Saturday is the starter on Sundays, with EDS filling in as a key interior backup. Sampson Genus rounds out the 9 o-linemen and probably isn’t in the daily active roster unless injuries force him in.

PS – Tommie Draheim has an interesting skillset. He’s not the biggest guy on the field, but he is versatile; playing both C and OT in college, so it is feasible that he could play all three positions in an emergency role if needed. A possiblility to this is to see if he can be a long snapper, take Goode’s roster spot, and fill in all over the line as a backup, thus freeing up Goode’s spot. If this happens, Genus returns to the Practice squad. 9 linemen are fine for the 53 man roster.

Defense

Look for massive changes to the defense this season. With the focus of the draft being defense, suspensions, and injuries forcing key players off our team, look for old faces to be in new places and new faces to make immediate starting impacts.

D-Line (6+3) – Worthy takes Neal’s spot as starting DE, Pickett and Raji have help now and won’t have to be on the field so much. Jarius Wynn makes the team initially, but loses his starting spot; Daniel Muir and Mike Daniels plays in spurts, giving Pickett/Raji breathers as needed. Lawrence Guy makes the PS again, with next year a possibility of taking a roster spot from someone. The Packers will keep Mike Neal and Anthony Hargrove on their books until their suspensions are finished before they make a decision. If there are some injuries, they’ll jump right in. If not, Hargrove will get cut, Wynn/Neal would be a tough decision to make as neither have been impressive.

ILB (5+1) – Bishop and Hawk are the starters, but DJ Smith is right on Hawk’s heels. Next year, look for Hawk to have to reduce salary again or find himself looking for a new job. Terrell Manning is versatile, able to play both inside and outside, and will primarily be used in passing downs. Robert Francois barely holds onto his position as the last man on the roster and gives depth/Special Teams play. Sean Richardson will earn a position as a developmental player on the PS. If he can bulk up and keep his speed, next year, look to him to cover those "matchup nightmare" TE’s as a linebacker with cover skills and speed.

OLB (5) – USC represents. Matthews and Perry are the starters. Zombo, Walden, and So’oto, despite being known as often injured or constantly running straight into the loving arms of the LT, are the backups. Let’s hope that they’re not often used aside for being deployed on many kickoff coverages.

CB (5+1) – Williams and Shields are the starters. Shields fights off House and Hayward, who are the primary backups. Bush doesn’t see the light of day on the defensive field, but gives his unique toughness on every Special Teams downs. Brandian Ross makes the practice squad again, as the first man on the PS/last player not to make the team. He could take Francois’ spot, but MM likes TE’s and backers.

Safety (4+1) – Burnett does his best to fill a large shadow at FS. He’s got the skills, and ball skills to make an impact; hopefully his baptism by fire from last year will give him the needed experience. Woodson fills in for a year or two as the SS, providing close support to the line, playing in a similar fashion to where he was last year. In the Nickle package, Jerron McMillian plays SS, while Woodson sits on the slot receiver. I really wanted to get rid of Peprah, but his experience makes him a solid backup. MD Jennings makes the PS for one more year, then takes over for Peprah on the depth chart.

Special Teams

Long Snapper – Brett Goode – I really want to get rid of an assigned LS position. I mentioned it earlier.

Punter – Tim Masthay

Kicker – Mason Crosby

So there it is. My 53 man roster with practice squad elements to boot. Feel free to eviscerate me in the comments section for anything you see.

Then head on over to Mocking the Draft and sign up. The NFL season is over three months from starting anyway, so I thought this would be a good/fun way to kill some time. If you're interested, sign up. There are still five spots available. Okay, technically there are six, but I'll be taking the last spot that's not taken by all the other competitors, so it's really five. Here's the link if you're interested:


All-Time NFL Mock Draft

I don't know about the rest of you, but I have been following the ongoing negotiations between Wes Welker and the Patriots over Welker's contract and I have heard every reason possible as to why the deal is not done. Some say they wonder if Welker is worth it. Others believe that Wlker can be replaced. There are even some who believe that the Patriots are being smart. No. None of this is the case. The Patriots are being smart and they are dealing with Welker the exact same way that other members of the NFL's top flight organizations- the Packers, Steelers, and Giants, deal with similar situations.

There is an overlying factor here that has nothing to do with money, production, or value. Rather this factor is a number.

The number "3".

The number "3" is the same reason why the Jerry Reese is playing hardball with Osi Umenyiora. Ted Thompson said no to Scott Wells for this very same reason as well.

Mick Jagger states it perfectly when he says "Time waits for no one". Every football coach in the world would like to be the head coach of Father Time because Father Time is perfect. Father Time is undefeated. Father Time has never lost. Some have tried to beat Father Time, such as "he who won't be mentioned ever again on this site", but, at the end of the day, they all have fallen victim to Father Time.

What does Wes Welker, Osi Umenyiora, and Scott Wells have to do with this? Well, everyone one of them entering this offseason had the number "3" as the first number in their age. The quality organizations are very hesitant to give contracts of four years or more to non-quarterbacks with the number "3" as the first number in their age, Why? Because you don't know when Father Time is going to come knocking and it's better to let a player go too early rather than too late. Father Time doesn't care about production and he doesn't give a heads up before he comes knocking.

Pro Bowl Weekend

This might be a minor subject, but since there isn’t a lot to talk about now. I thought it could be a subject to discuss. It seems like the NFL could be possibly cutting out the Pro Bowl, so my suggestion instead would be not to completely eliminate it but try a change. Since moved to the week before the Super Bowl it would still be nice to have a gap filler before the big game. I think instead of having a game, they should go to a Challenge /Skills weekend. Yes still have your Pro Bowlers but in a award ceremony instead. My suggested weekend would also move to the same city as the Super Bowl. The weekend could have a schedule like this.

Friday Night. Some type of Flag Football game (Vets, Retired, Celebs, etc.)

Player and Coach meet and greet/ Fan appreciation events.

Saturday: A day scheduled of skills competitions (for each position)

Player and Coach meet and greet/ Fan appreciation events.

Sunday: Pro Bowl Award / ceremony

When I as kid there was skills competition, I thought it was great. Some of this might seem cheesy or childish, but I think it could help NLF and fan relations (not saying its hurt) would bring revenue for NFL as well as hosting City. It’s obvious from last year that the game it’s self is a joke. And the players, the NFL and fans noticed it. But before they kill try to reboot first. Also some fans can’t afford the Super Bowl Tickets or Tickets to Hawaii. And this could give them a great NFL experience.

Does anyone else think this could work?

Any other suggestions?