Analysis
Niners at Green Bay Packers: 5 Questions With Niners Nation
by Brandon on Nov 20, 2009 11:15 AM CST
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6 comments
Fooch runs the fantastic SB Nation site for the 49ers, Niners Nation. I asked him 5 questions about the 49ers.
Brandon: So are you an QB Alex Smith believer, or won't he ever live up to his No. 1 overall status? His 2009 stats look very similar to his 2006 stats.
Fooch: I remain, unfortunately, somewhere in the middle. I think he has sufficient talent to turn into a quality NFL quarterback. The last two seasons he was knocked out by injuries and so he never really had a chance to continue a normal progression. At the same time I don't know if he'll ever be a franchise quarterback for this team. The upside to his promotion this season is that 49ers fans can finally get some kind of idea of what Smith can bring to the table. I think the 49ers will finally get their answer by the end of the season and can finally decide whether to fish or cut bait with him.
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Preview: 49ers at Green Bay Packers
by Brandon on Nov 20, 2009 7:15 AM CST
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Despite the big win last week, it would be easy for the Green Bay Packers to suffer a let down. The 49ers have an outstanding defense, and it won't be easy to run the score up against them. If the 49ers can keep the score close, and then come up with a big play or two, they could easily pull off the upset.
The league rankings, by yardage, from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 12 | 11 | 4 | 6 |
| 49ers | 22 | 25 | 3 | 29 |
Those rankings are fair, except as to the 49ers pass defense. They are not that bad, and are actually one of the better units in the NFL. Their opponents have attempted 338 passes against them, currently tied for 3rd most in the league, but they've only allowed 9 TDs and grabbed 11 INTs. Though their INT stats are inflated by the 5 INTs surrendered by QB Jay Cutler last week. On the other hand, the Packers have 13 INTs on the season and only 4 of those came from Cutler.
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SB Nation NFL Week 11 Power Rankings
by Brandon on Nov 18, 2009 10:44 PM CST
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Are now up at SBNation.com. The Green Bay Packers only move up from No. 16 to No. 14 because I didn't get my vote recorded in time. Since I'm a homer, I would have put them at No. 8, which might have moved them up a spot. Although I have to admit it's hard for the Packers to break out from the group of seven teams currently holding a 5-4 record. That is some parity.
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Analysis: The Best Defenses In The NFL
by Brandon on Nov 18, 2009 7:15 AM CST
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The weekly DVOA ratings came out on Tuesday from Football Outsiders, and the Green Bay Packers have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. The 49ers have the No. 2 defense.
Overall, both defenses shot up the rankings last week with dominant performances against the Cowboys and Bears, respectively. Both teams play a 3-4 defense, and both are succeeding in the same way: a Top 10 pass defense is anchored by a Top 5 run defense. Another way to measure them is by using the QB Jay Cutler barometer: he threw 4 INTs against the Packers, but 5 INTs against the 49ers.
Over the last 4 weeks, which is after each teams' bye week, here's how they've played:
Packers (2-2). They dominated the Browns and held their woeful offense to 139 yards in total. As a team, the Packers allowed 38 points in each game against the Vikings and Buccaneers, but special teams, and turnovers in the Bucs game, kept handing their opponents great field position. The Packers D held the Vikings offense to just 355 yards in total, and the Bucs to only 279 yards. Their most recent game was their best, as they held the potent Cowboys offense to only 278 yards in total, and forced them to abandon their usually dangerous running game. The only problem area has been their pass defense in the red zone, which has allowed 6 red zone TD receptions in the last 3 games.
49ers (1-3). They held the dangerous Texans offense to only 336 yards, but allowed 3 TDs in the 1st half. The Colts had 410 yards against them, but they held QB Peyton Manning without a TD in Indianapolis. The Titans only had 315 yards of offense, despite another huge game from RB Chris Johnson. And while the Bears managed 350 yards in total against them, the 5 INTs they grabbed made that yardage almost useless.
The Packers have been playing better over this stretch, as their No. 1 ranking would attest to, but the 49ers have played against better competition. I'm not sure the Browns even count as competition. Which defense has appeared more impressive over the last 4 weeks?
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Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: 5 Questions With Blogging The Boys
by Brandon on Nov 14, 2009 11:00 AM CST
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6 comments
Blogging The Boys is one of the best NFL sites on SB Nation. I had the chance to ask their editor, David Halprin, 5 questions about the Cowboys. He did the same, and my answers are posted over at Blogging The Boys.
Brandon: I read a comment recently that the Cowboys pass defense has been playing better in recent weeks, but then I look back two weeks ago and saw that QB Matt Hasselbeck had a pretty good game against them. Are they having problems with their pass rush or pass coverage? Or have there been signs of improvement?
David: Hasselbeck didn’t have that good of a game. He threw for under 250 yards and had 2 TDs, but one of them was in garbage time after the outcome was pretty much decided. They also passed a lot because the running game was weak, so he had a lot of attempts but not a great yards per attempt average.
The pass defense has improved as the year has gone on, part of the reason is the pass rush has come on strong after a slow start. We sacked Hasselbeck three times and got McNabb three times, plus a whole lot of pressures. In addition, CB Mike Jenkins is really starting to play well, and having Gerald Sensabaugh back from injury helps solidify the safety position. After a very bad start on defense, the Cowboys have been steadily improving each week.
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Week 10 - The SB Nation NFL Writers Have Spoken
by Brandon on Nov 13, 2009 10:00 AM CST
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2 comments
Don't forget to enter the APC jersey contest. Read all about it here.
Despite the ugly loss to the (previously) winless Bucs, the Packers only fell 2 spots down to No. 16 in the SB Nation NFL Week 10 Power Rankings.
Check SB Nation NFL for the NFL Week 10 Picks. The last time I looked, only 4 of the 32 NFL writers picked the Packers to win.
Also, check out our SB Nation Fantasy site for Week 10 sit and start recommendations. One good recommendation is to look on waivers for receivers facing the Packers over the next three weeks.
The first Thursday game already caught my fantasy team in a lineup mishap. I picked up the 49ers defense earlier this week because I thought they had a good match-up, but it didn't clear waivers until Thursday morning. Of course I forgot to adjust my lineup once they were added and they went off for 20+ points against the Bears. Typical, dumb luck. Did the Thursday night game mess up anybody else yet?
2 comments | 0 recs |
Preview: Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
by Brandon on Nov 12, 2009 7:00 AM CST
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65 comments
Here's how the Green Bay Packers match up against the Cowboys. Official stats from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| Cowboys | 8 | 6 | 12 | 20 |
I pointed out yesterday in my mid-season analysis that in these statistical categories, the Packers measure up pretty well against some of the best teams in the league. They should be able to run and pass against Dallas's defense. The best matchup might be the battle between the Cowboys run offense, currently ranked No. 1 overall by Football Outsiders, and the Packers run defense, currently ranked No. 2 overall by FO.
Unfortunately those stats don't show the 3 areas in which the Packers have struggled this season:
1. Special teams. According to FO, the Packers rank dead, dead last while the Cowboys have the 5th best unit. The Cowboys are getting in done with kickoff coverage and punt returns (WR Patrick Crayton ran one back for a TD two weeks ago against Seattle). On the other hand, Packer special teams have been giving up a lot on kick and punt returns the past two weeks. How can they expect to fix their kick and punt coverage mid-season when it's been bad all season long?
65 comments | 0 recs |
Analysis: Packers (4-4) After 8 Games
by Brandon on Nov 11, 2009 7:00 AM CST
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19 comments
Obviously the 1st half of the season ended badly with a loss to what was previously the last team without a win. Ex-Packer DT Gilbert Brown took some shots at Mike McCarthy this week, and former S LeRoy Butler says it's time for Mike to "turn the play calling over to Joe Philbin." Really? Philbin might be a heck of a guy, but he's primarily been an offensive line coach since 1986 and became a 1st time offensive coordinator in 2007. After watching the offensive line struggle this season, it's not exactly clear whether Philbin is doing a very good job himself.
Here's how they measure up statistically after the first 8 games compared to the rest of the league, rankings from NFL.com:
| Team | Run Offense | Pass Offense | Run Defense | Pass Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
They're top 10 in every major statistical category. I would expect a winning record with those stats. For as bad as the offensive line has been this season, it sure hasn't stopped the offense from being productive. I'm not defending them, just pointing out that we can't just say the 4-4 record is all the offensive line's fault. There's something else going on here. More after the jump.
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