Green Bay Packers Free Agency
Packers 2012 Free Agents: Pat Lee
There is only one unrestricted free agent for the Green Bay Packers that I haven't written about yet. In the 2008 draft, GM Ted Thompson traded out of the first round and back into the second. With their own pick still in hand, and an additional one from the Browns acquired in the Corey Williams trade, the Packers now had three second round choices. The first one was a great success (Jordy Nelson). The second one was a colossal bust (Brian Brohm). And the third hasn't been a great success, but he's been on the roster ever since: CB Pat Lee.
That was a pretty modest haul for three second round picks, but at least they did manage to find Jermichael Finley in the third round.
The scouts saw something in Lee, and it looked like he could play man coverage in the NFL. He played a little in his rookie season before a knee injured landed him on I.R. A preseason knee injury ended the 2009 campaign before it could even begin. He didn't play much upon his return in 2010, but he replaced Sam Shields for a while during the Super Bowl and he wasn't a liability.
It probably says a lot about him that while the secondary was falling apart last season he was still never able to crack the rotation. He played in all 16 games on special teams, and only recorded 10 tackles for the season. He barely held onto his roster spot entering the 2011 season, but I can't imagine they'll be asking him to return in 2012.
2012 NFL Free Agents: Pete Prisco's Top 50
Top 50 free agents: Former top pick Williams is top player on open market - NFL - CBSSports.com News, Rumors, Scores, Stats, Fantasy Advice. Following up on an earlier article on free agency and the Green Bay Packers, I came across Pete Prisco's list of the Top 50 free agents. He narrows the list by excluding obvious franchise tag candidates (Wes Welker, Drew Brees, etc.) and pushes down free agents if they're over 27.
While SB Nation had Matt Flynn at No. 1, here he's listed as the 35th best free agent and ranked below 49ers QB Alex Smith. Prisco seems to feel that Smith's awful pre-2011 track record (56 career starts!) gives him an edge. At least you know what you're getting! Not to pick on him too much, but I get the feeling that there's a lot of differing opinion on Flynn. Are those two great starts by Flynn fool's gold or a sign of better things to come?
The Packers could (should?) re-sign Jermichael Finley and Scott Wells, two players listed on this Top 50 list, but every other player on it is probably too expensive for GM Ted Thompson. However, there were a couple players who got my attention.
Seahawks DL Red Bryant. He's been a very good over the past two seasons and Prisco calls him "a perfect 3-4 end." He would be a great addition for the Packers, but the Seahawks "will make it a priority to re-sign" him.
49ers S Dashon Goldson. The 49ers only re-signed him in 2011 for depth. He ended up starting 14 games and grabbing 6 INTs. It looks like the 49ers have learned from their mistake and they'll let the guy who was supposed to start (Reggie Smith) leave in free agency and keep Goldson instead. The Packers might not need an upgrade at safety if Nick Collins can return next season.
Pretending The Packers Could Be A Player In The 2012 Free Agent Market
NFL Free Agency 2012: Matt Flynn, Mario Williams Among Marquee Names Hitting The Market - SBNation.com. Other than their own players, which of these free agents would be of the most interest to the Green Bay Packers?
I ask this question hypothetically. In reality, I don't expect the Packers to be a major player in the free agent market, except to re-sign their own players. For me, I'm looking at two particular defensive lineman.
Mario Williams. He's such a great athlete that he actually played well at outside linebacker in the Texans 3-4 defense, until he was lost for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. He should probably move back to DE in a 4-3 scheme. If he were a Packer, he might not be a good fit in their base 3-4 (not really an OLB, too small for a 3-4 DE) but he'd play a lot in their nickel package as the other defensive lineman alongside B.J. Raji. In reality, I could see him playing for the Titans, and I could see him on the Dolphins (if their salary cap permits).
Paul Soliai. He's a nose tackle, a run stopper, and was just named as a replacement to his first Pro Bowl. And he's not at all what the Packers need on the defensive line (i.e. pass rusher). But he'd be an upgrade, a very expensive upgrade based on his expected free agent payday, and at this point the Packers could use an infusion of talent on the defensive line in any form. In reality, any team playing in a 3-4 defensive scheme without an anchor at nose tackle could use him.
Packers 2012 Free Agents: Howard Green
The big (really big) man for the Green Bay Packers was the 2010 Erik Walden of the defensive line; a player brought in mid-season who gave their defense a boost. In the case of Howard Green, he was claimed after being released in October 2010 by the Jets. He came in when Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett were both hurting, and depth was at a premium. He showed surprising hustle for a man of his size (6-2, 340 lbs).
He's not a pass rusher, but his best play was during the Super Bowl, when he got a strong push up the middle and hit Ben Roethlisberger's arm as he was throwing deep. The pass ended up hanging in the air, it was intercepted by S Nick Collins, and he returned it for a touchdown.
I was expecting more of the same from him in 2011, but he wasn't the same player that he was in 2010. He didn't show the same hustle as he did before, and, by the end of the season, he was usually inactive on Sunday. I don't expect the Packers will even offer him a contract.
Packers 2012 Free Agents: Matt Flynn
NFL Free Agency 2012: Matt Flynn, Mario Williams Among Marquee Names Hitting The Market - SBNation.com. Green Bay Packers QB Matt Flynn is the top free agent according to this list at SB Nation, but he's the only one of the Packers free agents that has zero chance of returning. The only question is whether he'll be tagged-and-traded (unlikely due to salary cap limitations) or allowed to leave without receiving a draft pick in return. The Packers might receive a compensatory pick in 2013 depending on how those secretive NFL rules work.
Is there a team that he should not sign with? Maybe the Redskins because that franchise is such a mess, but he'd still put up good numbers. He'd be a disgustingly good fit with Joe Philbin and the Dolphins, but he'd transition easily with the Browns or Seahawks (the two other teams mentioned at the above link).
Looking back it's amazing he's come even this far as a former 7th round draft choice. I almost wish he wasn't this good so the Packers would've had a chance to re-sign him as a backup.
Packers 2012 Free Agents: Erik Walden
Green Bay Packers LB Erik Walden was one of the best stories of 2010. A street free agent who'd been unemployed after the Dolphins had released him a month earlier, he was signed by the Packers in October 2010. He received playing time almost immediately, and he was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week after a career game vs. the Bears.
In 2011, he was expected to compete against LB Frank Zombo for the starting outside linebacker. But Zombo missed nearly the entire season due to multiple injuries, and Walden started 15 games in his absence. I wasn't expecting a lot from him, but he didn't even meet that low bar. He wasn't a factor for most of the season, though he played very well after the bye week. That was until he was arrested in late November. He slumped badly in December and he finally lost his starting job to LB Brad Jones at the end of the season.
He shouldn't be expecting a big contract in free agency, but I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him return as a backup and special teams player. If his mid-February trial date goes badly then I don't think he'll be back under any circumstances. However, the Packers haven't been quick to cut ties with players who have run into legal troubles. Maybe this post is too early, and we should wait to decide until after his trial. Or maybe we've already seen enough of him.
The NFL Offseason Has Begun
Here are some key dates coming up as the offseason gets underway for the Green Bay Packers.
February 20 through March 5 is when they can apply the franchise tag.
February 22 through 28 is the NFL combine.
Free agency begins on March 13.
The next big news story will be whether the Packers will use the franchise tag at all. Possible candidates for the franchise tag are Matt Flynn, Jermichael Finley, Scott Wells, and Jarrett Bush.
I'm kidding about Jarrett. I just wanted to see if you're paying attention.
Actually, the only player who might get the franchise tag is Finley. Dreams of a tag-and-trade deal involving Flynn are probably a long-shot because the tag would cost around $14 million and wreck the Packers salary cap in the short-term (i.e. they'd have to start releasing players immediately). If Finley stays at the tight end designation, which is another story if he insists on being considered a wide receiver, the franchise tag should be around $6 million for a tight end.
Wells isn't likely to be tagged either because centers are usually paid less than other offensive lineman, but for purposes of the franchise tag, all offensive lineman are lumped together and he would cost close to $10 million. Since I expect he'll receive a long-term deal for between $5 to $6 million per season, the franchise tag would be excessive and he might even be tempted to sign the one-year offer.
Jermichael Finley Indicates That The Packers Aren't Even Talking About A Contract
Packers, Finley making no progress on new contract | ProFootballTalk. Green Bay Packers TE Jermichael Finley did a whole bunch of interviews at the media center in Indianapolis on Friday, and "indicated that he and the Packers have had no discussions regarding a new contract."
I'm surprised that the Packers haven't been negotiating all along. Maybe they talked with his agent and have an idea of what he wants. Maybe they don't want to negotiate against themselves at this point because they know they'll use the franchise tag on him. He might believe he's a wide receiver because he did line up wide on occasion, but more often he was lined up next to a tackle as a tight end. Maybe the Packers intend to keep him and it's just the way they do things. As Finley called it, "the Green Bay way."
That said, if he hasn't had any discussions about a new contract, that could be a strong sign they intend to let him go. While the two tight ends drafted last April aren't as good, they could be viewed as his replacement. Now his situation is starting to remind me of Cullen Jenkins. The year before Jenkins left, the Packers drafted the player they thought would replace him (Mike Neal), and then they didn't discuss a new contract with him during the 2010 season. I'm not even aware that they offered him a contract after free agency began.
On the other hand, I thought Randall Cobb was drafted as a replacement for James Jones, but the Packers ended up re-signing him anyway. There are some other differences too. Finley is six years younger and entering his prime, while Jenkins has just turned 31. Also, as an offensive player, Aaron Rodgers might something to say about it and you'd expect his opinion would carry some weight.
In the end, I'm not sure which path the Packers will take.
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