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Green Bay Packers Preview

Preview: Ravens at Patriots

Unlike in the NFC, where the top seed team choked, the AFC championship game features the two teams expected to battle for a trip to the Super Bowl.

It's pretty obvious that the Patriots are bringing the better offense, and the Ravens are bringing the better defense.

Last week, I thought the key for the Ravens was having good Joe Flacco show up. While he wasn't bad (2 TDs, 0 INTs), he wasn't very good either (14 of 27 for 176 yards). Ray Rice didn't impress last week either. However, the Texans defensive line was killing the Ravens offensive line, and neither Flacco and Rice could do much about it. On the other hand, the Patriots defense will not be confused for the Texans defense. The Ravens problems last week in pass protection and run blocking should diminish. Football Outsiders ranks the Ravens offense at a respectable 13th overall, which should be more successful than the Broncos were against arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

While the Patriots offense is one of the best, the Ravens defense is arguably the best. I'm not expecting Tom Brady to throw for six touchdowns again this week. This is going to be one of the top match-ups of the playoffs.

I would expect the more balanced Ravens, assuming they avoid penalties and turnovers, to win in Foxboro. However, the Patriots offense is so good that it could still put enough points on the board to win. I'm on the fence here. Maybe the Patriots will win but the Ravens will cover.

Poll
What are you expecting in the AFC Championship game?
The Patriots will win
67 votes
The Ravens will win
78 votes
The Patriots win, but the Ravens cover (7 to 9 points)
36 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed

8 comments  | 

Preview: Giants at 49ers

I'm not a big fan of the 49ers, but the wound from last week's loss is still raw and I can't root for the Giants. So I'm hoping the 49ers win. But will they?

The Giants are the most frustrating team to predict. After being outscored during the regular season (394 points scored vs. 400 points allowed) and only beating one playoff bound team during the regular season (24-20 over the Patriots), they've won their first two playoff games by comfortable margins. They remind me of a couple of recent teams.

The 2003 Panthers. Despite an 11-5 regular season record, they were only the 17th best team according to Football Outsiders. It wasn't surprising to see them beat the Cowboys at home, but then they went on the road to beat the Rams and Eagles.

The 2008 Cardinals. They were helped by the fact that the defending Super Bowl champs and top seed (Giants) got bounced in the divisional round. I didn't expect the Cardinals would win a single playoff game. Instead they made a run to the Super Bowl, and were a James Harrison pick-six away from winning it all.

Back on November 13th, the Giants lost in San Francisco by a score of 27-20. But it showed how they can win this game. They have to win the turnover battle, which has been one of the secrets to their success (one turnover in their two wins). And, just as they focused on beating Finley last week, they have to do the same to Vernon Davis, who crushed the Saints last week and had a 31 yard touchdown catch in their earlier meeting.

Still, I expect the 49ers to win. However, with the way I've been picking games so far, I guess that means the Giants will win.

Poll
Who will win on Sunday?
49ers
161 votes
Giants
104 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

16 comments  | 

Saturday Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers, Broncos at Patriots

The early NFC game is the interesting one for fans of the Green Bay Packers, but the late game is likely to set some TV ratings records because of the Broncos QB.

Saints at 49ers. The weather is expected to be in the 50s with little wind, which is a huge favor for the Saints. Still, the 49ers offense is going to have to do something other than avoid turnovers and hand it off to Frank Gore, so the fine weather will help Alex Smith find an open receiver or two against the Saints bad pass defense.

The 49ers have had a great season, but the Saints are the better team. They should win the game. But if the 49ers do win, it will be because they learned some lessons from two of the Saints surprising road losses. Drew Brees had two of his worst games on the road against the Buccaneers (1 TD, 3 INTs) and the Rams (1 TD, 2 INTs). The 49ers tied for second in the NFL this season with 23 INTs. They've got to look closely at what made Brees struggle and duplicate it if they're going to win the game.

More on this game at Canal Street Chronicles and Niners Nation.

Broncos at Patriots. I really can't believe how the Steelers played Tim Tebow last week. They were determined to stop the run, and it left their defense vulnerable to big plays down the field. Tebow can't throw the ball well (47.6 completion percentage on the season) but he can connect on deep passes. The Patriots need to win the field position battle, and play their safeties deep to avoid the big play. Tebow isn't going to sustain a lot of 10+ play scoring drives against any defense. Make him work for every first down.

I don't know why the Patriots have listed 13 players as questionable. They should only be questionable if they're a game time decision, and that wouldn't seem to apply to all these of players. However, some of them, like starting G Logan Mankins, are legitimate ones. The Patriots offense is so good that even without all of these questionable players, they should put up points against a mediocre Broncos defense. I'm expecting a comfortable win for the Patriots.

More on this game at Mile High Report and Pats Pulpit.

37 comments  | 

Preview: Giants Offense Against The Packers Defense

After looking first at the Green Bay Packers offense versus the Giants defense, it's time to move to the other side of the ball. Once again, I'm not only looking at the Packers game against the Giants from last month, but also their game back on December 26, 2010. Here are some selected stats for the Giants offense from those two games:

Total Yards Yards/Carry Yards/Att. Touchdowns INT & Fumbles
12/04/11 447 5.0 8.7 4 2
12/26/10 386 4.3 9.0 2 6

The problem area for the Giants offense should jump out at you. Their 2010 game at Lambeau was a turnover filled disaster. They only turned the ball over twice last month, but one of them was a pick-six to Clay Matthews. The Packers have led the league in interceptions in 2011, and they showed off their ball hawking ways back in 2010 too.

On the other hand, the Giants racked up the yardage and scored six touchdowns in two games. Even back in 2010, the Packers pass defense was starting to look like the 2011 version that surrendered the most passing yards in a season. The Packers have allowed on average 300 yards passing per game this season, and they surrendered 301 passing yards to Eli Manning in 2010.

Continue reading this post »

16 comments  | 

Preview: Packers Offense Against The Giants Defense

When looking at game previews for the Green Bay Packers, I usually look at games from the current season. But the Packers also played the Giants back on December 26, 2010 and it featured nearly the same players for both teams. It has as much relevance as a prior year game can have, plus it was a home game for the Packers. Here are some selected stats for the Packers offense from both games:

Total Yards Yards/Carry Yards/Att. Total TD INT
12/04/11 449 3.2 8.0 4 1
12/26/10 515 3.4 10.9 6 0

There are some strong similarities in both games. First, the Packers couldn't run (or didn't try) to run the ball, but they did score two rushing touchdowns in 2010. However Aaron Rodgers was probably their best rusher in both games. The Giants didn't do much in either one to slow the passing attack down.

Continue reading this post »

108 comments  | 

Washington Post: My First Preview of the Giants At The Packers

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 04:  Aaron Rodgers #12 and Jordy Nelson #87 of the Green Bay Packers react in the first quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 4, 2011 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Giants vs. Packers: Can New York pull the upset? - The League - The Washington Post. In my latest post at The League, I compared the 2010 Green Bay Packers to the 2011 New York Giants. In each season, they were the last teams in the NFC to secure a playoff spot. The Packers went onto win three straight playoff road games. The Giants have won their first playoff game at home, but now have to win on the road. There are some similarities, but these are two very different teams.

While the 2010 Packers led the NFC in scoring margin at +148 (which proved they were better than their 10-6 record) the 2011 Giants were outscored by their opponents during the regular season by 6 points (which proved they were closer to an 8-8 team than 9-7). In 2011, the Packers scoring margin was even better +201, and they were also much better at Lambeau where they scored on average 40 points per game.

NFL Playoffs: Packers, Saints On Upset Watch In Divisional Round - SBNation.com. So when I read upset alerts that think the Giants can win at Lambeau, I can't believe it. The Packers defense has had problems throughout the year, and the Giants offense should present a challenge, but the Packers offense has rolled over every opponent they've faced. The offense only struggled against the Chiefs, but that looks like a one game fluke. In their two home games following that loss, they scored 80 points against the Bears and Lions. And those are two very good defensive teams.

You can never look past any opponent, especially in the playoffs, but there's no reason that the Packers should be extremely confident this Sunday.

177 comments  | 

Wild Card Preview: Falcons at Giants

While the Saints are heavy favorites on Saturday night, the Giants are only 3 point favorites as they host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Here are their team stats from Football Outsiders:

Falcons Giants
Pass Offense 8 4
Pass Defense 10 21
Run Offense 25 20
Run Defense 3 19
Special Teams 22 16

While both teams are known for having a strong run game, that's not the case this season. Falcons RB Michael Turner isn't having his best season. But the Giants are having trouble stopping anyone's rushing attack. It looks like both teams will have to rely on their passing attack, While the Giants pass offense is better, the Falcons pass defense has played well overall.

The Falcons have been averaging 25 points per game, and that seems like a reasonable goal. However, the Giants averaged 25 points per game too, and they've scored 29 or more in four of their last five games. Unfortunately, just like the odds makers, I don't know who's going to win this game. I like the Falcons to win, but the Giants have enough big play ability that I might be eating those words come Sunday.

41 comments  | 

Wild Card Preview: Lions at Saints

There are four NFC teams in action this week, and it's possible that the Green Bay Packers could face three of them (Lions, Falcons, or Giants) in a couple of weeks. The Packers played all four teams this season, and won all five games against them.

The first NFC wild card playoff game this upcoming weekend is on Saturday night, when the Saints host the Lions. I'm a little surprised that the Saints are favored by 11 because the Lions are a strong opponent. Here are the team stats from Football Outsiders:

Lions Saints
Pass Offense 10 3
Pass Defense 4 26
Run Offense 15 2
Run Defense 20 21
Special Teams 29 13

This has the makings of a shoot-out. While the Lions pass defense is highly ranked, they're limping into the playoffs after being demolished by Matt Flynn last week. If Flynn can play that well, then so can Drew Brees. However, Matthew Stafford was dominant in his own right, and the Saints defense isn't very good at stopping anyone's passing attack. While I'm picking the Saints (see below) the Lions certainly have enough offense to pull off the upset. One or two big plays for the Lions could win them the game.

Two other factors are in favor of the Saints. The Lions haven't gotten much from their special teams unit, while Darren Sproles is having a great season. Also, the Lions are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL coming in at exactly 8 penalties per game, while the Saints are average at just over 6 per game.

The Lions should score more than the 17 points they scored against the Saints back on December 4th. Stafford was still recovering from a broken finger, and now he's thrown 12 touchdowns in his last 3 games. The Lions are getting some defensive players back for this game (DT Ndamukong Suh and S Louis Delmas) who missed their previous meeting, but the Saints should still be able to score. It might just be a closer matchup this time around.

Saints 35, Lions 28.

31 comments  | 


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