NFL Preview - Green Bay (4-4) at Minnesota (4-4)
Sports Network | November 06, 2008
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And so it goes for the NFC North.
Only two seasons after sending Chicago to the Super Bowl and just 10 months after falling one OT interception short of doing it again in Brett Favre's last Green Bay dance, the division formerly known as "the Norris" has suddenly become the bauble no one wants.
Eight games into the 2008 schedule, in fact, the label of "North Division Front-Runner" carries with it the same dead-end stigma as the tag of "Lead Caterer/McCain Inauguration."
Three of the loop's four inhabitants have taken a turn at or near the top of the heap through the campaign's first half, which ended last week with the Bears at a less-than-imposing 5-3, followed by the Packers and Minnesota just one wobbly step behind at 4-4.
Detroit is the Ralph Nader of the bunch thus far with its 0-8 start.
Green Bay and the Vikings get a chance to further muddy the mix with their date this weekend in Minneapolis, a get-together that could conceivably leave the Packers below .500 but still just a game behind when they host Chicago seven days later.
The Bears, meanwhile, visit unbeaten Tennessee in their warm-up for the Green Bay.
Coach Mike McCarthy's team dropped to 4-4 when it lost a 19-16 OT nod at Tennessee last week, while the Vikings returned from their bye and climbed to 4-4 with a 28-21 win over visiting Houston.
Green Bay beat Minnesota, 24-19, in Week 1 at Lambeau Field.
"Division games are very important, no doubt about it," McCarthy said. "Division road games are probably the toughest road games that you play throughout the year, in my opinion. So this week's challenge will be big for us, no doubt."
In-game challenge No. 1 will be trying to limit Vikings phenom Adrian Peterson, one week after allowing the Titans to rumble for 178 yards on the ground in four-plus quarters.
"We need to play better run defense. I think we're a physical defense, just the way we're structured," McCarthy said. "Scheme-wise dictates that. Bump- and-run, two-gap inside. I'm disappointed in some of the continuous gap control problems that we've had.
"Floating to the gap instead of attacking the gap, just the fundamentals of football."
For Minnesota, part of the challenge for coach Brad Childress was maintaining the momentum that had seen the team rally from a 1-3 start with two straight wins before the bye.
Quarterback Gus Frerotte threw three touchdown passes against the Texans, including a 49-yard scoring pass to Bernard Berrian. Meanwhile, the Vikings churned out 177 yards on the ground, included 139 yards and a touchdown from Peterson.
Defensively, Minnesota held Houston to 62 yards on the ground, posted five sacks and drove Texans quarterback Matt Schaub from the game with a knee injury.
Defensive end Jared Allen led the charge with two sacks and a forced fumble.
"I think we made plays when we needed to," linebacker Ben Leber said. "We battled, and that's the name of the game, and we came out with a win."
SERIES HISTORY
Green Bay leads the all-time regular season series with Minnesota, which dates back to the 1961 season, 49-44-1, and has won five straight against its longtime division rival. The Pack was a 24-19 home winner over Vikes in a Monday night game in Week 1, and swept home-and-homes in 2006 and 2007. The Vikings swept the home-and-home with the Packers in 2005.
The teams' only postseason meeting to date was the Vikings' 31-17 upset of the Packers at Lambeau Field in a 2004 NFC Wild Card game.
The Packers' McCarthy has a 5-0 edge in his personal series against both the Vikings and Childress.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Now flush with an in-season contract extension, quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 18-of-22 for 178 yards, a passing touchdown, a rushing touchdown and a 115.5 passer rating in the Week 1 meeting, his first start after the tour of duty as Favre's apprentice. He passed for 314 yards last week against the Titans, recording his third 300-yard game of season. On the ground, feature back Ryan Grant has 211 rush yards and a touchdown in two starts against the Vikings and, when Grant has 19 or more rush attempts, the Packers are 8-1. Through the air, veteran Donald Driver has a reception in 103 consecutive games, which ties him for the longest streak in team history with Sterling Sharpe. Driver had seven catches for 136 yards a TD last week. He has 32 catches for 525 yards and three TDs in his past four trips to Minnesota, including three 100-yard games. Also, teammate Greg Jennings has 19 career TD receptions, 10 of which have been for 40-or-more yards. He has 11 catches for 258 yards in two division games this year. Jennings' 764 receiving yards in 2008 are tops in the NFC. As a unit, the Packers are averaging 336 yards per week and have a plus-4 turnover margin.
The rough-and-tumble Vikings have continued in 2008 what's become a team signature in recent years - a stout rushing defense. Minnesota's unit, led by big bodies Pat Williams and Kevin Williams up front, allows a conference-low 69.6 yards on the ground per game. Incidentally, the two unrelated Williamses combine for 628 pounds and stand 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-3, respectively. Elsewhere, end Jared Allen leads the NFL with 50 sacks since 2004 and has five over his past three games in this, his first season with the Vikings. Allen and Kevin Williams share the team lead with seven apiece. In the backfield, former Packer Darren Sharper has an NFL-best 48 interceptions since 2000. Relative team newcomer Antoine Winfield leads the team this season with two picks. Overall, the Vikings are allowing 302.5 yards per game through eight games.
WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
Journeyman Gus Frerotte has taken over for the dinged-up and generally ineffective Tavaris Jackson and flourished, winning four of six starts. He'll start against Green Bay for the first time since he was a Detroit Lion in 1999 and comes off a defeat of the Texans in which he threw three TD passes and posted a 111.6 passer rating. Peterson, the second-year rushing machine, aims for a fourth straight 100-yard game after going for his 139 and a TD last week. He's averaging a league-best 98.4 yards per game since arriving in the NFL and has 976 yards and 10 touchdowns in nine career division games, reaching 100 yards six times. Berrian, who began his career and reached the Super Bowl with the Bears, has 19 career touchdowns - 13-for-30 or more yards. He had the aforementioned 49-yarder against Houston and has caught 19 passes for 426 yards and four scores in his last four games. Additionally, wideout Sidney Rice and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe caught TD passes from Frerotte against the Texans. Minnesota is averaging 342 yards per game and has a minus-2 turnover margin.
Defense has been a slightly lesser strength for the Packers, with Green Bay allowing 330 yards per week, though they've surrendered 30 points just once and have kept their foes to less than 20 in three straight games. Defensive end Aaron Kampman has nine sacks in his last seven games against the Vikings, including at least a half-sack in six of the games and two with three or more. He has 33.5 sacks overall since 2006, the second-best total in the league, and his six this season are tops in Green Bay. In their past seven games, safety Nick Collins and cornerback Charles Woodson each have four interceptions and two returns for touchdowns. Their four picks share the league lead. Also, cornerback Tramon Williams has three interceptions in his last five games.
FANTASY FOCUS
The Vikings have the game's single most valuable player in Peterson and a darkhorse commodity in Berrian, while the Packers have more high-end individuals with Rodgers, Grant, Driver and Jennings, as well as a ball- hawking defense that preys on errant opposition throws. All could contribute in some way, shape or form on Sunday, regardless of who actually wins the game.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
In keeping with the logjam nature of the division, this game ought to be competitive and close regardless of how it ends up. Peterson should get his yards against the Packers defense, while the Vikings' front line will clog up Grant but probably give up a play or two to Driver, Jennings and Co. In the end, it'll probably revolve around a defensive mistake or an offensive big moment, which, as a tiebreaker, ought to go to the home team in a heated rivalry and perhaps end fittingly on a late field goal from ex-Packer Ryan Longwell.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Vikings 24, Packers 21
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