Peter King Knows All

by Brandon on May 1, 2007 12:37 AM CDT in Green Bay Packers News

Savage got a nibble from Green Bay at 16. Cleveland offered its first-round pick in 2008, and offered to flip picks with the Packers in rounds two, three and four. "I thought it was going to work,'' Savage said. "But they thought about it, called back and said no."

Some seriously sweet speculation. Should the Packers have passed on a potential top 5 pick in 2008 if/when Cleveland struggles to another 4-12 season?

If they make the trade they probably miss DT Justin Harrell, but could grab RB Brandon Jackson at the beginning of the 3rd round and S Aaron Rouse at the beginning of the 4th round. They lose out on WR James Jones too. At the top of the 2nd round they could have taken Arizona State TE Zach Miller or traded down to get another 3rd round pick to select Jones anyway. Unfortunately when they move down there isn't another tackle like Harrell available.

Generally I hate trading a pick this year for a pick next year. It takes one additional year for that player to show up on your roster. But Cleveland's 1st round pick in 2008 would at least be in the top 10. Dallas got an even better deal than what Cleveland offered the Packers, but Thompson should have accepted the trade.

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I'm not so sure

According to the Draft Value chart:

Cleveland Receives:
#16 - 1000
#47 - 430
#78 - 200
#112 - 70

Total: 1700

Green Bay Receives
2008 1st Round from Cleveland - ?
#36 - 540
#67 - 255
#103 - 88

Total: 883

So, for it to be a "win" for GB, the 08 pick would have to be in the top 20. Also, there has to be some value in picking in 07 rather than 08. I'm guessing Cleveland will have a top 20 pick (& you are right by assuming top 10), but how much value does the immediacy of the 07 pick hold?

by shaftr on May 1, 2007 9:22 AM CDT reply actions

next year's picks

Some (maybe all?) teams lower the value of a future year's picks by a whole round, so a first round next year is the equivalent of a second round pick this year. I remember Bobby Beatherd would frequently trade a future first for a current second.

I think Dallas got a better offer than the Packers did, especially considering that their pick was seven (I didn't fact-check this, so I could be wrong) picks after Green Bay's in the first round.

by NiceGuyJoey on May 1, 2007 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I can agree with this

granted I don't know the Browns that well, but we aren't certain if Brady Quinn will have an impact on the Browns, or even start. Charlie Frye wasn't awful last year. Plus they still need people to throw to if Jamal Lewis gets hurt or isn't producing like he used to. I have this feeling that we missed an opportunity of taking advantage of a team who desperately wanted to bring in the hometown boy.

"I'm in town to play the Dolphins you dumbass"- Brett Favre

by TkGoUWGB on May 1, 2007 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions