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Preview: Green Bay at Dallas

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One thing that both teams have in common is a nearly identical turnover ratio (Packers +5, Dallas +6). Neither team forces a lot of turnovers, but both teams are pretty careful with the ball. If neither team has more than 2 turnovers, then it will be a close game. These are two of the best offenses, they have been able to move the ball the length of the field and score against nearly every team they have faced, and it may come down to who has the ball last.

Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Packers Rushing Offense 9 32
Dallas Rushing Defense 5 4

For this entire preview I'm ignoring the NFL rankings based on yards/game. Usually the average yards/game are similar to the rankings from Football Outsiders, but not this week. The Packers aren't the worst rushing team in the NFL, they just don't run it too often. The Packers will run the ball around 20 times and RB Ryan Grant will continue to average over 4 yards/carry.

Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Dallas Rushing Offense 6 11
Packers Rushing Defense 7 13

This will be a big part of the game. The Packers run defense has struggled the last two games against Detroit and Carolina, and neither team has a running attack anywhere near as good as Dallas. RB Marion Barber should have a good game and cause problems for the Packers all game long.

Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Packers Passing Offense 3 2
Dallas Passing Defense 7 21

Here is the big test for Dallas. The Packers are sending out five good to great receivers on every passing play and creating a matchup hell for the opposing defense. The defense can't blitz Favre because he's getting rid of the ball quickly and finding the open receiver.

Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Dallas Passing Offense 2 5
Packers Passing Defense 13 18

The injuries are piling up in the secondary for the Packers and Dallas' pass offense is playing out of their minds. CB Al Harris vs. WR Terrell Owens will be a major part of this battle, but with S Aaron Rouse and S Nick Collins both potentially out for the game, there is no one to cover TE Jason Witten. The front four will have to put pressure on QB Tony Romo because he will probably find someone open on nearly every play.

Teams FO Ranking
Packers Special Teams 11
Dallas Special Teams 15

This will really come down to what WR Koren Robinson and CB Tramon Williams can do on kick returns. Dallas is nothing special on special teams, but if Robinson and Williams aren't making big return plays, the Packers' special teams aren't special either.

Despite the Packers great season so far, Dallas is playing even better and they've got the home field advantage. The depth and health of the Packers' secondary will be tested in this game with CB Charles Woodson probably out along with the Packers top 2 safeties. The Packers offense will be able to drive and score, but the Packers defense might struggle to get off the field. Dallas hasn't been held to under 20 points this season, but the defense will have to come up with a big play or two to create some scoring opportunities so the Packers can win 31 to 24.