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Preview: Oakland at Packers

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With QB Brett Favre back at practice and likely to start (but now QB Aaron Rodgers is maybe out for two weeks?) this game looks like a bad matchup for Oakland. Despite their poor 4-8 record Oakland has been good on the road this season. Their road record is only 2-4, but 3 of their 4 losses have been within 7 points. The Packers have played some close games at home earlier in the season, but steamrolled Minnesota and Carolina in their last two home games.

Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Packers Rushing Offense 8 30
Oakland Rushing Defense 32 30
Ignore those NFL rankings; the Packers have one of the best run offenses in the NFL. RB Ryan Grant is good and defenses don't dare put 8 men in the box the way Favre is playing this season. Oakland's run defense isn't just the worst in the league, it's the worst in the league by a wide margin. Expect another big day for Grant.
Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Oakland Rushing Offense 14 4
Packers Rushing Defense 7 12
Once again ignore those NFL rankings. RB Justin Fargas has been great the past few weeks for Oakland, but the Packers run defense is very good. This could be a good battle, but if the Packers let S Atari Bigby play up in the box because they don't respect Oakland's pass offense then Fargas will have nowhere to run.
Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Packers Passing Offense 6 2
Oakland Passing Defense 8 5
This will be a good battle. No matter what rankings you look at the Packers pass offense is good and so is Oakland's pass defense. Actually Oakland's pass defense is about as good as Dallas and QB Aaron Rodgers had a 104.8 passer rating against them last Thursday. Although will Favre will start, and he struggled big time against Dallas, he also had his worst decision making game of the season. Assuming Mike McCarthy shows Brett the film of all the bad decisions he made against Dallas, he's unlikely to play that bad again.
Teams FO Ranking NFL Ranking
Oakland Passing Offense 30 30
Packers Passing Defense 18 23
The Packers pass defense is struggling, especially with the loss of pass rusher DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and CB Charles Woodson, but Oakland's pass offense is exceptionally awful. Oakland's pass offense is similar to Kansas City's and QB Damon Huard managed an unimpressive 74.1 passer rating against the Packers in week 9 despite a big game from TE Tony Gonzalez. If the Packers defense is healthy and TE Zach Miller doesn't imitate Gonzalez on Sunday, then Oakland's pass offense will be shut down.
Teams FO Ranking
Packers Special Teams 11
Oakland Special Teams 17
Both special teams are about average and shouldn't give either team an advantage.

The injuries are a concern, but the Packers are currently favored by approximately 10 points, which sounds about right. The Packers scored over 30 points in four consecutive weeks until Dallas held them to only 27 points last Thursday, so Packers 30, Oakland 20.