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Brett Favre Going Out A Winner

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Amazon kindly dropped off my copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 today. Proof of the authors' love for the 2007 Packers is on the cover with a picture of QB Brett Favre and the caption "Going out a winner." Despite this prominent cover photo, he is rarely mentioned in Ned Macey's Packer team review. Most everything he wrote is dead accurate, but there are plenty of points to disagree with too.

The biggest point he set me straight on is the easy 2007 schedule. When the schedule was first announced, it seemed brutal especially compared to 2006 when the NFC West and AFC East schedule served up convincing wins against bad teams (Miami, San Francisco, and Arizona). However, the Prospectus says the 2007 schedule is the 2nd easiest in the NFL.

"Their interdivisional games come against the AFC West and NFC East, two divisions that our projections say will be less daunting than in years past."
Here is a statistical gut check to see if you believe in these authors. They expect that Chicago has a 16% chance to become a Super Bowl contender while the Packers have a 34% chance. Overall Chicago only has a 48% chance to have a winning record compared to the Packers 70% chance. Do you feel that the Packers are that much better than Chicago?