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Bill Simmons Speaks

Primarily I'm a stats guy and looks to the numbers when doing a game preview or game wrap-up. Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz was on Bill Simmons' podcast and explained how statistically the Packers are the superior team and the Giants can't win it, but statistically they are very similar to the 2003 Carolina Panthers who played four great playoff games (they played well against New England, but just not good enough) after a poor regular season in which they played worse than their record.

One thing I'm not is a gambler, and I don't look at each game from the perspective of the line or the personalities involved, but Bill Simmons does. Unfortunately "if Simmons picks one team and the Sports Gal picks the other, and you like the same team that Simmons likes, be afraid, be very, very afraid." says Matthew of San Diego.

PACKERS (-7) over Giants
Three straight road games for the Giants. (Uh-oh.) Eli playing a night game in the freezing cold when he's already on record as saying he hates playing in the freezing cold. (Uh-oh.) People talking themselves into the Giants as a Team of Destiny. (Uh-oh.) A Packers team that already has proven it's a monster home team that can extend leads into double figures. (Uh-oh.) Assuming the Pats win, the delicious possibility of Brett Favre and the Packers trying to stop the 18-0 Patriots. (Uh-oh.)

Say you take the Giants and the Packers get the ball, march down the field and score a TD. Now it's 7-0, and Eli runs out there with his hands in his pockets and his teeth chattering. They hand off twice, and his third throw flies over Amani Toomer's head and nearly kills Green Bay's equipment manager. As he's running off the field with his teeth chattering, Fox cuts to Archie Manning sitting in the stands with one of those, "I should have smacked him around more when he was little" looks on his face. Then they cut to Favre on the Packers sidelines, who's standing there with a big grin and thinking, "Holy crap, this is gonna be easier than I thought."

So here's my question: Doesn't that scenario seem a little too realistic? I can't take the Giants. I just can't.

(Cut to everyone in the Tri-State area applauding happily.)

The Pick: Green Bay 30, New York 10