We're here, gents. The draft starts at 4 EST, but we've already got our first pick in, courtesy of Detroit. It's kind of unfair that the Rams get 7+ hours for their pick, but that's how the chips fall sometimes.
A few notes before we get started. All times will be EST, just so there's no confusion. Additionally, I will be continually editing the post whenever news pops up, and will do so relatively often. So make sure you've got those 'refresh' buttons handy. Finally, I will be patrolling the comments incessantly, so if you've got a tip, quip, or analysis with some zip, I will gladly cut/paste you into the liveblog. Remember, the more comments, the better.
And...we're off!
(UPDATE: We're moving the liveblog to after the jump. This thing is getting way too long; it won't even fit on the front page.)
(SECOND UPDATE: That's what she said. Hey-oo!)
9:00 AM - I venture into my now-furniture-less kitchen and learn that Matthew Stafford is the Lions' pick. I would be happy for them, but there's two issues that I feel will come back to haunt them.
- Stafford's completion percentage at Georgia: 57%. That's less than his predecessor, David Greene (59%). If your first reaction to that news is "Who the hell is David Greene?", then you know Lions' fans should be worried.
- Stafford's contract: "...six-years, $72 million deal with $41.7 million guaranteed. The contract could be worth as much as $78 million if Stafford achieves all of his playing incentives." As Brandon pointed out, that figures to be more than Aaron Rodgers' extension mid-way through last season, and some people thought that was premature.
Sorry, Detroit, but there's not enough ass pennies in the world that could ever make me think that this is a good move.
2:57 PM - After a fun morning of signing new apartment leases and installing my brand new TV, I finally manage to get back to my computer. Even though ESPN is showing the Nuggets-Hornets game, we're still getting draft news. My favorite tidbit? The Seahawks might pass on Mark Sanchez, which would allow the Browns(!) a shot at drafting the USC man.
From Mel Kiper's mock draft:
The buzz surrounding the draft is focused on the No. 4 pick. It looks as though the Seahawks may take Aaron Curry instead of Sanchez. That would enable the Browns to either pick Sanchez and trade Brady Quinn or trade the pick. My information is pointing toward the Browns trading Quinn and selecting Sanchez.
Why they would trade Brady Quinn so quickly is beyond me. Any ideas?
3:04 PM - And we have our first question from the comments section, courtesy of mkcubs21.
You think Boldin gets dealt today? What do you think the Packers do?
As far as Boldin goes, I think the Cardinals would be stupid to trade him. You simply can't find a better WR tandem than Fitzgerald-Boldin; they make anybody under center immeasurably better because of their abilities. Will he get traded? Only if Arizona doesn't want to contend for the Super Bowl.
As far as Green Bay, I think they're in prime position to draft a player that fills a major need. B.J. Raji, Brian Orakpo, or one of the fearsome foursome of offensive tackles (J. Smith, Monroe, Oher, or A. Smith) would be great picks. As long as one of them slides down to number 9, Thompson will be in great position to make a key addition.
Don't count out any possible trades, though. The ninth pick could be a valuable commodity, especially if someone wants to jump up and snatch a falling prospect (like Mark Sanchez or Michael Crabtree).
3:14 PM - From ESPN.com's Sal Paolantonio:
Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum arrived at the team's draft headquarters a little before noon Saturday and began looking at his options with the 17th pick in Round 1. Tannenbaum said the Jets would like to move up in the first round -- the first time he's admitted that publicly. He said the team is not fixated on drafting quarterback Mark Sanchez. But it's clear that the Jets have a genuine interest if Sanchez drops within trading range, which would be approximately at pick No. 8.
As we're all aware, Green Bay has the 9th pick, and Tannenbaum and Thompson have traded before.
I'm not saying anything will or should happen - dropping from 9 to 17 is quite a fall - but it'll be interesting to see if the Jets have a decent deal to offer, considering we already have their third round pick.
3:34 PM - Special thanks go out to GoGregGo for keying in on an important detail I couldn't verify myself:
According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the number one player on the Packer’s draft board is…drumroll please… Michael Crabtree?
Ok, I’m a believer in the "best-player-available" strategy, but doesn’t that seem to be taking that philosophy to the extreme?
Let's get one thing straight: Michael Crabtree has the skills to succeed in the NFL. He's a reliable route runner, has solid hands, and is tough after the catch.
If he's available at number nine, and the Packers have him rated as the best player on their draft board, then you can say that Crabtree is the "best player available".
Should they take him? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Reciever is one of the positions where our third stringer could be a starter on another team. Adding a player like Crabtree would be counterproductive when you look at the problems facing the offensive line and the defensive front seven.
3:45 PM - Green and Bold brings up an interesting issue:
we should take an HB fairly high, 3rd, maybe even 2nd round.
Guy like Coffee, McCoy…make our backfield more competitive.
I'm not so sure about this. Ryan Grant, as unimpressive as he was last year, ran for 1,200+ yards. Brandon Jackson was effective but never got enough opportunities. DeShawn Wynn has tons of ability that would translate well to on-field success if he could keep out of the trainer's room.
I honestly think that the combination of Grant's holdout and subsequent hamstring injury, the shuffling of the offensive guards, and the decline of both Taushcer and Clifton all added up to the lack of success running the ball. The key to improving the ground game lies with bringing in new OT's, not new RB's.
4:00 PM - We're finally done with the Nuggets-Hornets game, and ESPN has moved the feed to Radio Music City Hall.
Is it just me, or does the auditorium look like NASA control center with a fancy podium up front?
4:03 PM - Roger Goodell is so much less eloquent than his predecessor, Paul Tagliabue.
4:04 PM - Wow. That's a lotof boos for Matthew Stafford. I mean, a LOT. Why the animosity towards the first overall pick, especially in NYC?
4:06 PM - Erin Andrews(-Titus) starts off with a great question: "The Lions haven't had a Pro Bowl quarterback since 1971. What kind of pressure does that put on you?"
It's almost sad to think that a team has gone that long without a decent QB. We really are spoiled to have gone from Favre to Rodgers.
4:08 PM - bleedbluegold03 gets his first mention on the liveblog:
I would love the idea of trading down to Washington @13 and getting a 3rd to package later.
We could still get a player in the range of Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss, Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State, or a USC linebacker.
If we would use two 3rds to push into the late first round I think we could grab another defensive weapon giving us two starters in a few years.
If Washington's willing to bite on that deal AND Green Bay is in position to draft someone like Oher or Brown, that would certainly be an advantageous position.
4:14 PM - Brandon doesn't like the waiting:
Taking the whole 10 minutes. Like they don’t know what they are going to do.
Turns out that Brandon is right: Jason Smith is the pick. Kind of obvious, since they dropped Orlando Pace a few weeks ago and have a huge hole at LT. Mel Kiper is crying about how Mark Sanchez would have been an excellent pickup because he would get a chance to develop while Marc Bulger gets pounded for the next year or two.
In any case, cross off one of the top offensive tackles from your list. Now everything is much less certain; Kansas City could go a few different directions, each of which will have a ripple effect on the rest of the first round.
4:20 PM - Go figure, Herm Edwards wants the Chiefs to trade down. He's been gone from the team for a few months, and he still wants to botch the franchise.
/we can build on this!
4:23 PM - Steve Young is yelling about how some guys don't love football. Looks like his concussions really have taken their toll.
Also, Tyson Jackson is the pick for Kansas City. A somewhat surprising move, considering Aaron Curry is one of the best prospects available. However, Jackson is a player whose stock was steadily rising in the week leading up to the draft, and he's probably the best defensive end in the draft. Too bad for Green Bay, he would have been an excellent consolation pick if the other players on Thompson's draft board weren't available.
4:29 PM - Michael Smith from SportsCenter's studios just talked about how B.J. Raji won't have to wait long before learning where he'll play. He specifically noted both Cleveland and Green Bay as likely destinations. After Seattle picks, Cleveland will have to decide if they want the big DT or not.
4:31 PM - Cleveland is probably bummed that Seattle didn't decide to go after Mark Sanchez. Aaron Curry is a bonafide star-in-waiting, and he'll likely do well in Seattle. I sure hope that Colin Cole can keep offensive linemen away from Curry, otherwise Curry will be as gloomy as Seattle's weather.
Now we find out if the aforementioned rumors regarding Cleveland are true or not. If you're Phil Savage, who's a better leader for your offense: Quinn or Sanchez? If it's the latter, where do you go with the former?
4:38 PM - The Jets traded with Cleveland, and Mark Sanchez is on his cell phone. This can only mean one thing.
4:39 PM - Is that the sound...of Jets fans...cheering? In their defense, Sanchez has a lot more characteristics that point to success in the NFL when compared to Matthew Stafford, and after the failed Favre experiment, Gang Green desperately needs a QB to compete in the AFC East.
However, the Jets had to give up a lot to move up to number five. They certainly gave up their first rounder (17th overall), they didn't have a third rounder (that belongs to us), so what's left? Is Mark Sanchez worth having no more picks until round 4 or 5? (UPDATE: The Jets gave up their first AND second round pick, leaving them without a pick until the 4th(!) round, and included three players in the deal: DE Kenyon Coleman, QB Brett Ratliff, and DB Abram Elam) It's a risk, but my gut says it's a good one.
Now the Bengals get their chance. While everyone's been saying that Andre Smith is a likely pick, Eugene Monroe is still on the board. Will they go for one of these tackles, or will they look elsewhere?
4:50 PM - Cincinnatti takes Andre Smith, and your liveblog host sheds a lard-filled tear.
Say what you want about his issues, but when Andre Smith is on the field, the man is a b-e-a-s-t BEAST! What surprises me is that Eugene Monroe is still available; I've seen him go as high as three to Kansas City. Could Green Bay end up with him, providing he's ranked higher than Raji and/or Orakpo (if they're available, of course).
So the Bengals get a player with character issues. Marvin Lewis is certainly turning that team in a better direction.
4:53 PM - This pick by Oakland is really going to determine how Green Bay approaches their own pick. Oakland needs OT help, and should probably consider Eugene Monroe. However, Crabtree and Maclin are big-time WR's, and Al Davis loves him some WR's.
4:54 PM - And Oakland takes...Darrius Heyward-Bey?
...
Chris Berman just pointed out that Heyward-Bey is the fastest reciever in the draft.
Well, that explains everything.
4:57 PM - Okay, I think I've finally returned to reality after going on Al Davis' Guatemalan-Insanity-Pepper-fueled-crazy-rocket ride.
Jacksonville also has WR needs, but they signed Torry Holt a few days ago. There's no reason the Jags don't take B.J. Raji, but Crabtree might be the guy here.
After all, Thompson has him as the highest-rated player on his board (allegedly). Could Jacksonville share that sentiment?
...Jesus, I hope so...
5:03 PM - Jacksonville takes Eugene Monroe. Too bad, because he would have been an excellent fit in Green Bay.
Now, everyone get nervous. Michael Crabtree, who has the makings of a great player, is still available. Ted Thompson considers Crabtree the best player on the board. Will Crabtree trump the needs that could be filled by Raji, Orakpo, Oher, or Brown?
5:07 PM - Raji is on the phone. Repeat, Raji is on the phone.
5:10 PM - Everyone's acting like B.J. Raji is the pick. What's interesting, though, is that Kiper says that teams considered that Raji could play 3-4 end because of his athletic ability. Perhaps he could take Justin Harrell's spot at end?
5:11 PM - The last time everyone on the ESPN stage agreed that a player would be a good pick for Green Bay? Aaron Rodgers. Steve Young compared a potential Raji pickup to Gilbert Brown.
5:13 PM - Well, it's over. The last few months of spirited debate and speculation has come to this.
Green Bay takes DT B.J. Raji.
And the crowd goes wild!
5:15 PM - Brandon's analysis of the pick from the comments section:
The run defense killed them last season. There’s just no down side to taking the best guy at stopping the run available in the draft. Fixing the run defense had to be the priority. I was fine with someone else at No. 9 if the run defense was addressed later, but Thompson apparently thought now was the time.
My expert rebuttal: yeah...
Honestly, this guy is probably going to help the defensive line more than we thought possible. I liked the idea of Orakpo at LB, but I seriously doubt his ability to help fix the Pack's biggest problem: stopping the interior run.
5:19 PM - San Francisco stops Crabtree's free fall by taking him at number 10.
Let me just point out one thing: Everyone's comparing him to Jerry Rice, and Crabtree will likely contact the HOFer at some point. But I've got a different angle. By going to the 49ers, Crabtree gets to learn from Isaac Bruce. I don't think anyone will remember how important that was when, in three years, Crabtree is anointed one of the top-5 recievers in the league.
Next up: Buffalo.
5:25 PM - Buffalo decides to shore up their void of pass rushers on defense by taking Aaron Maybin.
My thoughts on the subject? According to Buffalo, the same team that signed T.O, Aaron Maybin is better than Brian Orakpo...something doesn't seem right.
Now Kyle Orton's new team, who are also shifting to a 3-4 defense, get the pick. Orakpo projects as an outstanding 3-4 OLB that can rush the passer and get sacks. You would think that the Broncos have to take him here...right?
5:29 PM - Wrong. Denver takes Knowshon Moreno. Do they not care that their defense sucks?
5:31 PM - Do you think they even had to think about it? Washington jumps on Orakpo like a 12-year-old wannabe-gangster from Suburbia on the new Asher Roth CD. But unlike the kid with the baggy shorts and the askew baseball cap, Washington will not be disappointed.
5:38 PM - New Orleans takes the player all the draftniks were predicting Green Bay would take early on: Malcom Jenkins. He's quite the playmaker, and he knows the game well. Good for the Saints.
5:43 PM - Houston takes their sweet time to take Brian Cushing. Cushing is probably the most NFL-ready of the three USC LB's, and will find a role in Houston's historically awful but recently improving defense.
5:48 PM - The Chargers are much better than their draft position suggests. Wanna know why they went 8-8? Two reasons, and only two.
- LaDanian Tomlinson is starting to decline.
- Shawne Merriman had microfracture surgery.
I mean, the fact that they play in the AFC West is enough to detract from any argument. But I honestly think that whoever they get won't be the main reason for improvement; Merriman's return from injury will take care of that by itself.
5:50 PM - Larry English is the pick for San Diego. He'll find a role in the 3-4 defense that the Chargers run.
Now Cleveland finally gets to pick, after swiping the Jets' second rounder. Odd, though, that they were willing to drop down so far in the draft.
5:57 PM - Is Thompson working for the Browns now? Cleveland really doesn't want to make a pick. Tampa Bay is on the clock, and Cleveland moves back to the 19th spot. This is the second time they've traded down in the first round, and they picked up a sixth rounder. Woot.
6:00 PM - Okay. A quick reminder, Buccaneers fans: Jon Gruden is gone from Tampa Bay.
YOU DON'T NEED TO HOARDE QUARTERBACKS ON YOUR ROSTER ANYMORE.
Josh Freeman is a big ol' reach at 17, especially after Tampa signed Byron Leftwich. They really didn't want to take someone who could actually, you know, help them?
6:04 PM - ESPN has been showing that the Bronco's pick is in for about five minutes now. Attention Josh Freeman's family: get off the stage!
Oh, by the way, Robert Ayers is the pick. Bravo, Denver, you took a player who might be able to help fix your awful defense.
Now the Browns are on the clock. Again. Will Cleveland trade down even further?
6:10 PM - Why, yes, yes they will. The Browns have traded the 19th pick to Philadelphia, dropping Cleveland back behind Detroit at 21. In return, Cleveland gets a three-month supply of Philly cheesesteaks.
Meanwhile, Philly takes Jeremy Maclin, allowing Andy Reid to further gorge himself on calling pass plays. You gotta think that Chris Wells might have been a better pick; sooner or later, Brian Westbrook is gonna actually stop producing.
6:19 PM - Detroit's main result from fleecing of the Cowboys out of their first round pick? Brandon Pettigrew. Best TE in the draft? Yes. Best option at pick 20? Probably not.
I agree with Steve Young on this one. Detroit should have taken a tackle to help protect Matthew Stafford. But, the rebuilding process is a long one, and Detroit does still have the 33rd overall pick to address their O-line needs. Pettigrew will probably still be there when Detroit eventually becomes a contender again, and gives the Lions' offense a solid option if anyone figures out how to cover Megatron.
Okay, now Cleveland is gonna make a pick.
6:24 PM - And that pick is Alex Mack. We've seen how much a good center can help a team offensively. I don't know a lot about Mack as a player, but considering the picks Cleveland picked up over the course of the first round, I like what Cleveland did here today.
6:25 PM - Minnesota is on the clock...and off the clock already by taking Percy Harvin.
Wait for it...
Wait for it......
BAHAHAHAHA
Congratulations, Minnesota, you just took a reciever that projects to be just barely better than Troy Williamson. Even Kenny Britt would be a better fit here. Just because Harvin is fast doesn't mean he's going to be a good fit. Too many red flags on this guy.
I love it.
6:32 PM - New England trades back from the 23rd pick, allowing Baltimore to swoop in and pick up MIchael Oher.
Dammit.
In all fairness, it was ridiculous to think that Oher could fall all the way out of the first round. He's too good. And the Ravens have been trying to replace Jonathon Ogden for years now.
Next up: Hot-lanta.
6:40 PM - And the Falcons go with Peria Jerry. I am very ho-hum about this pick; after B.J. Raji, defensive tackle was super thin.
What've you got for us, Miami?
6:45 PM - Vontae Davis is celebrating wildly about being picked with the 25th selection. My question is this: is he excited to play for the Dolphins, where he's under the watch of Bill Parcells? Or is he excited to work in Miami during the fall and winter?
6:52 PM - And Green Bay has traded with New England, getting them back into the first round! What?!
Who could the Packers be targeting at the 26th pick?
6:53 PM - And just like that, Green Bay picks up USC's Clay Matthews. Matthew's will likely compete for an outside linebacker role, perhaps pushing A.J. Hawk to the inside. I've been trying to find details on this trade, but none are available yet.
6:57 PM - ESPN is doing a nice little tribute to members of the military on the stage before Indianapolis gets their pick. A nice little reminder about what's really important, while we're all obsessing over a glorified gym class team picking. We salute you.
6:59 PM - Indianapolis ends up with RB Donald Brown. Does Joseph Addai need that sort of help?
7:03 PM - Buffalo takes C Eric Wood. Like with my analysis of Alex Mack, there's a lot a good center can do to improve a struggling offense.
7:08 PM - The Giants begin the search for Cheddar Plax's replacement by drafting Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is a physical reciever in the mold of Burress, but I doubt he'll ever come close to the sheer volume of production that Plaxico can offer.
7:16 PM - Tennessee takes Rutgers' Kenny Britt. Having seen Britt play in person, allow me to just say that the Titans are still very far away from finding the number one reciever that has eluded them for so very long.
7:17 PM - Thanks to toledomudhen for being the first to find the Packers-Patriots trade details.
Patriots receive:
" 2009 second-round pick (No. 41)
" 2009 third-round pick (No. 73)
" 2009 third-round pick (No. 83)Packers receive:
" 2009 first-round pick (No. 26)
" 2009 fifth-round pick (No. 162)
Wow. Is a second and two thirds really worth moving up from 41 to 26 to take a linebacker whom many have criticized as being a system player?
Thompson must really like Matthews as a player, because now Green Bay doesn't have a pick until the fourth round. This feels...wow. Too much.
7:22 PM - And the end of the Edgerrin James era is nigh. The Cardinals pick up Chris 'Beanie' Wells to try to vitalize their underwhelming ground game.
7:30 PM - The Super Bowl champion Steelers go with Ziggy Hood to cap off the first round.
7:32 PM - Kicking off the second round, Detroit takes safety Louis Delmas. Who?
7:33 PM - I've been crunching some numbers to see how well the Clay Matthews trade works out for Green Bay. For those who aren't familiar, I made a big deal about this draft chart and how Thompson almost always gets more than he gives out in trades involving draft picks.
So what's the value for this trade?
Packers give: picks 41 (490 pts), 73 (225 pts), and 83 (175 pts) (890 total points)
Packers recieve: picks 26 (700 pts) and 162 (27.6 pts) (727.6 total points)
Net total: -162.4 points --- 81.7 % of original value
So Thompson did at least keep at least 75% of his original picks' value, which is the benchmark for GMs trading up in the draft. But considering the fourth round pick (104th overall) would have made the value almost dead even, I really wonder why Thompson allowed New England to get both of Green Bay's third round picks.
This trade still floors me. Either Clay Matthews is so good that we can wait to address the offensive tackle issues, or Bill Belicheck has some sort of mind control over Thompson that forced a momentary lapse in judgement.
7:42 PM - Well, Green Bay is, for the moment, done for today. I understand giving up the second round pick to get back into the first round, but I don't think I'll ever get losing both the 73rd and 83rd picks.
I'll keep watching the draft, and I'll give updates on important division news, or if I see something that's just too funny to ignore. Otherwise, I thank everyone for their input, and we'll see you around.