Preview for Statistical RB Analysis...

I made a previous comment about an analysis conducted by SWFLNole over at Tomahawk Nation about FSU running backs so I thought it would be interesting to see how it translated for our guys. All credit goes to SWFLNole for the methodology and format.

This is just a test; I realize that the sample is WAY too small and other factors for preseason make it unreliable, but there were some interesting results regardless. I mainly wanted to set this up as a basis for reviewing the entire season at a later time.

More after the jump...

First, check out the original article for a detailed description of the methodology...

SWFLNole compared negative runs as a percentage of total carries, median YPC, and average YPC as well as "Success Rate" as defined by Football Outsiders. That being runs that generate 40% of yardage needed to get a 1st down on a 1st down run, 60% of the yards needed for a 1st down on a 2nd down run, and 100% of the yards needed to get a 1st down on a 3rd or 4th down run. The general thought, according to SWFLNole is that 2 yards on a 3rd and 2 is more valuable than 2 yards on a 1st and 10.

Given those parameters, here are the results for our RBs through 2 preseason games....

Ryan Grant:

-2,-1,-1,1,2,2,2,2,3,5,5,5,5,6,11,14,14 = 18% negative carries

Stats Success by Down
Carries 17 1st 6/11 55%
Median YPC 3 2nd 3/3 100%
Average YPC 4.3 3rd/4th 1/3 50%
% Neg. Yds 18% Tot 10/17 59%
Negative Yds -4
Positive Yds 77

Brandon Jackson:

-2,0,3,3,4,4,4,5,8,10,18 = 9% negative carries

Stats Success by Down
Carries 11 1st 3/5 50%
Median YPC 4 2nd 2/4 50%
Average YPC 5.2 3rd/4th 0/2 0%
% Neg. Yds 9% Tot 5/11 45%
Negative Yds -2
Positive Yds 59

Deshawn Wynn:

0,0,2,4,5,6,6,7 = 0% negative carries

Stats Success by Down
Carries 8 1st 3/5 60%
Median YPC 5 2nd 1/3 33%
Average YPC 3.8 3rd/4th 0/0 0%
% Neg. Yds 0% Tot 4/8 50%
Negative Yds 0
Positive Yds 30

Kregg Lumpkin:

-5,0,0,0,1,3,4,5,6,6,7,8,14 = 8% negative carries

Stats Success by Down
Carries 13 1st 6/10 60%
Median YPC 4 2nd 0/2 0%
Average YPC 3.8 3rd/4th 0/1 0%
% Neg. Yds 8% Tot 6/13 46%
Negative Yds -5
Positive Yds 54

Tyrell Sutton:

-3,0,0,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5,5,5,5,6,8,8,9,9,10,10,10,12,17 = 4% negative carries

Stats Success by Down
Carries 27 1st 6/12 50%
Median YPC 5 2nd 10/11 91%
Average YPC 5.2 3rd/4th 4/4 100%
% Neg. Yds 4% Tot 20/27 74%
Negative Yds -3
Positive Yds 143

The biggest thing that stood out to me was Tyrell Sutton's success rate. I realize this is against backups, but to get 75% 60% of the necessary yards to get a 1st down on 91% of his 2nd down carries is pretty remarkable [He actually did achieve 75% of the yardage but I changed to wording to reflect the updated NFL percentages]. I may use this to analyze our top 2 RBs with the rest of the NFC North RBs...


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