I made a previous comment about an analysis conducted by SWFLNole over at Tomahawk Nation about FSU running backs so I thought it would be interesting to see how it translated for our guys. All credit goes to SWFLNole for the methodology and format.
This is just a test; I realize that the sample is WAY too small and other factors for preseason make it unreliable, but there were some interesting results regardless. I mainly wanted to set this up as a basis for reviewing the entire season at a later time.
More after the jump...
First, check out the original article for a detailed description of the methodology...
SWFLNole compared negative runs as a percentage of total carries, median YPC, and average YPC as well as "Success Rate" as defined by Football Outsiders. That being runs that generate 40% of yardage needed to get a 1st down on a 1st down run, 60% of the yards needed for a 1st down on a 2nd down run, and 100% of the yards needed to get a 1st down on a 3rd or 4th down run. The general thought, according to SWFLNole is that 2 yards on a 3rd and 2 is more valuable than 2 yards on a 1st and 10.
Given those parameters, here are the results for our RBs through 2 preseason games....
Ryan Grant:
-2,-1,-1,1,2,2,2,2,3,5,5,5,5,6,11,14,14 = 18% negative carries
Stats
Success by Down
Carries
17
1st
6/11
55%
Median YPC
3
2nd
3/3
100%
Average YPC
4.3
3rd/4th
1/3
50%
% Neg. Yds
18%
Tot
10/17
59%
Negative Yds
-4
Positive Yds
77
Brandon Jackson:
-2,0,3,3,4,4,4,5,8,10,18 = 9% negative carries
Stats
Success by Down
Carries
11
1st
3/5
50%
Median YPC
4
2nd
2/4
50%
Average YPC
5.2
3rd/4th
0/2
0%
% Neg. Yds
9%
Tot
5/11
45%
Negative Yds
-2
Positive Yds
59
Deshawn Wynn:
0,0,2,4,5,6,6,7 = 0% negative carries
Stats
Success by Down
Carries
8
1st
3/5
60%
Median YPC
5
2nd
1/3
33%
Average YPC
3.8
3rd/4th
0/0
0%
% Neg. Yds
0%
Tot
4/8
50%
Negative Yds
0
Positive Yds
30
Kregg Lumpkin:
-5,0,0,0,1,3,4,5,6,6,7,8,14 = 8% negative carries
Stats
Success by Down
Carries
13
1st
6/10
60%
Median YPC
4
2nd
0/2
0%
Average YPC
3.8
3rd/4th
0/1
0%
% Neg. Yds
8%
Tot
6/13
46%
Negative Yds
-5
Positive Yds
54
Tyrell Sutton:
-3,0,0,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5,5,5,5,6,8,8,9,9,10,10,10,12,17 = 4% negative carries
Stats | Success by Down | |||
Carries | 27 | 1st | 6/12 | 50% |
Median YPC | 5 | 2nd | 10/11 | 91% |
Average YPC | 5.2 | 3rd/4th | 4/4 | 100% |
% Neg. Yds | 4% | Tot | 20/27 | 74% |
Negative Yds | -3 | |||
Positive Yds | 143 |
The biggest thing that stood out to me was Tyrell Sutton's success rate. I realize this is against backups, but to get 75% 60% of the necessary yards to get a 1st down on 91% of his 2nd down carries is pretty remarkable [He actually did achieve 75% of the yardage but I changed to wording to reflect the updated NFL percentages]. I may use this to analyze our top 2 RBs with the rest of the NFC North RBs...
Thoughts?
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