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Preview: Green Bay Packers at Redskins

I'm having a lot of trouble with this week deciding how the Green Bay Packers will matchup against the Redskins. Usually I look for a comparable game.

When the Bengals beat the Packers in 2009, QB Carson Palmer threw for 3 TDs while RB Cedric Benson averaged nearly 5 yards/carry. The quality of the Bengals receivers seem similar to the 2010 Redskins. A big advantage the Cardinals and Steelers had when they defeated the Packers in 2009 was a core of quality receivers, something that doesn't appear to exist at this moment in Washington. Also, the Bengals were great converting on 3rd down, just as the Lions were last week, while the Redskins are near the bottom converting only 25% of the time on 3rd down. At their best, the Redskins may play like the Lions last week and take what they can get in the short passing game. But that still could be good enough to win as it helped the Lions score six times last week. On the other hand, the Redskins are scoring less than 20 points per game, and only scored over 20 once in the shoot out with the Texans in week 2. I'd expect the Redskins will have trouble scoring over 20 points on Sunday. 

With the Redskins playing a cover-2 defense this season, it's very similar to what the Bears schemed a couple weeks ago. They'll let QB Aaron Rodgers gain a lot on short passes, but nothing deep. And just like the Bears, the Redskins will hope that's good enough to win. Gain a lot of yards, and wait for the Packers to shoot themselves in the foot. Just this time, keep it under 18 penalties so you don't have another TD called back on a penalty.

Packers 24, Redskins 17.