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Predict The Final Score Of The Super Bowl

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One question I'm commonly asked before any Green Bay Packers game is my prediction of the final score. To make my best guess, I look at previous scores against similar teams. How many points did the Packers score in a game against a similar defense? How about the Steelers?

The Steelers defense allowed the fewest points and the second fewest yards per game allowed (behind the Chargers). The next closest teams the Packers faced were the Bears (fourth fewest points allowed) and the Jets (third fewest yards per game allowed). In those four games, the Packers scored 17, 9, 10, and 21 points. That's just over 14 points scored per game.

The Packers defense allowed the second fewest points and fifth fewest yards. The closest teams the Steelers faced were the Ravens and (again) the Jets. In those five games, the Steelers scored 14, 13, 17, 31, and 24. That's an average of just under 20 points per game.

Luckily for my analysis, the games aren't played based on past performance. And in those last two games for both teams, they won them both. I know the Packers offense can explode for big points against very good teams. Such as the times they scored 45 against the Giants and 48 against the Falcons. But the more I think about this game, the more likely it seems to be a close one. Packers 21, Steelers 20.

What do you think the final score will be?