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Cheese Curds, 1/21: Win probabilities say Packers should have gone for two

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However, Mike McCarthy's choice to kick a PAT and send Saturday's game into overtime wasn't nearly the worst decision that day, according to one of today's curds.

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NFL head coaches have been historically hesitant to deviate from the conventional wisdom, especially when it comes to the debate about attempting a two-point conversion or kicking an extra point. This year's move of the PAT back to the 15-yard line did little to change coaches' minds (or at least the minds of coaches not named Mike Tomlin).

However, in today's curds, we find a simple statistical argument that not only should the Packers have attempted a two-pointer instead of going to overtime last Saturday, but that Andy Reid made an even worse decision earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, we also have some links involving a Green Bay Packers player who pockets his per diem on road trips despite a $39 million contract, and an examination of how quarterback trends have changed in recent years.

NFL Coaches Are Getting Away With Crimes Against Middle-School Math | FiveThirtyEight
According to 538's math, the Packers would have had about a 48.8% chance of winning had they gone for two after the Aaron Rodgers-Jeff Janis hail mary, but just a 40.9% chance of winning if they tried for overtime. This isn't as significant as the Chiefs, who kicked a PAT to go down seven late in the game in New England, which as you'll see is about a 15% swing.

Jordy Nelson: 'I am extremely cheap' - ESPN Video
Jordy has been making the media rounds this week, and here's his latest bit with Dan Le Batard, who asks him about his farming upbringing and how he handles his money.

An average NFL quarterback now has stats that great quarterbacks in years past couldn't achieve - ESPN
This is a fascinating look at how quarterback trends have evolved over the past three decades.

Packers' receivers won't lack for motivation |
Packers fans, on the other hand, are hoping that they won't lack for a dedicated position coach either.

Ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines this season | PFF
Believe it or not, the Packers' line ranked 7th this season, their second-straight top 10 finish. They also came in 5th in pass-blocking, a surprising ranking since they allowed a total of 47 sacks this season.

Wisconsin Republican lawmaker has FanDuel, DraftKings bill in works - Milwaukee Business Journal
The bill would not ban daily fantasy sports, as some states have done, but would instead push for "appropriate consumer protections" and regulations on the burgeoning industry.

How New England's Darius Fleming went from hero to liar and back to hero -
This is one of the more bizarre stories in the league this year, but everything seems to check out as legitimate.

Can Reddit give my boyfriend some internet love? : GreenBayPackers
A Packers fan is in the ICU after being assaulted in Portland, Oregon over the weekend, and his family has a fund set up for donations if anyone is willing to help out.