This week should provide another chance for good offensive statistics for the Green Bay Packers. The Indianapolis Colts may be scoring 26.0 points per game, but they are giving up 28.8. The Colts are the 29th-ranked overall defense in terms of yards and 31st in passing yards. The Colts are built primarily as an offensive team. It will not be the sort of offensive onslaught that happened last week, but there still should be plenty of points.
Rodgers has been throwing shorter routes and it is worked out. According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.2 through the first four games. Over the last three games Rodgers has averaged just 7.0 yards. Another interesting way of judging how well this has worked is the adjusted completion percentage, taking the combined total of receptions and drops and dividing that by the number of aimed passes (attempts minus throw aways). During those first four games Rodgers had an adjusted completion percentage of just 64.6%, but that ballooned to 79.4% over the last three games. That percentage is good enough for fifth in the league. Rodgers’ yardage totals have gone up and his touchdown to interception ratio has greatly improved (3:1 to 8:1). Rodgers is now in a trend of being a top five quarterback.
Luck has been the second-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback this year. While Luck’s passing yards might be a little inconsistent, he makes up for this with rushing yards. Luck is a mobile quarterback. In fact, Luck led the Colts in rushing last week against the Chiefs. The Colts will likely have to throw as the run game is already weak and the Packers tough run defense will mean the Colts will have to throw to score. The Colts already lean heavily on Luck and they will have to do so again this week. With the chance the Packers are again without their top three cornerbacks, he will likely find enough success to possibly be a top three quarterback this week.
Ty Montgomery/Don Jackson et al.
Montgomery is the only possible running back you want. Even without Knile Davis, Don Jackson is not really valuable. He will get some carries, but if Montgomery is healthy he will see the majority of snaps. Again, he is a running back on ESPN but not Yahoo. Ripkowski led the Packers in rushing last week among all players not named Rodgers. You are not starting or even adding Ripkowski, but it is rumored that if you say his name three times your bench press increases by 100 pounds.
This is the only running back on the Colts to get any serious carries. Andrew Luck is the second-leading rusher on this team. Gore is currently the tenth-leading scorer in fantasy football, but he has not had his bye yet. Gore’s 66.5 yards per game ranks 16th in the league. Going against the number one rush defense, it might be time to start someone else. For example, if you can add Tim Hightower or Jordan Howard you should.
Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams
This should be a great week for Cobb. Vontae Davis will likely follow Jordy all round the field. Expect Cobb to be in the slot and getting a lot of looks with room to run. Adams should get plenty of opportunities as well lining up away from Davis. The Jets are the only team with a worse pass defense than the Colts in the league this year. This should be a great time to start these players. Cobb should be a WR1 and Jordy should be a high-end WR2. Davante Adams is a flex who could have a ceiling as a WR1.
T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief
Moncrief came back from injury and had a touchdown in his return. Moncrief led the Colts in targets last week and T.Y. Hilton was right behind him. Last week the Packers were hurt by Mohamed Sanu when they planned around stopping Julio Jones. Jones is far better than Hilton. The Packers are a middle-of-the-road pass defense (16th overall). With all the injuries to the Packers secondary, the Colts should be able to find space to get yards this week. Hilton should be a low-end WR1. Number one wide receivers have had some success against the Packers so far this year. Moncrief seems to be a WR2 now that he is back and healthy.
THE REST OF THE LEAGUE
Well, this week Tampa Bay will be facing the Falcons. That should mean plenty of pass attempts for Jameis Winston this week. Winston has managed multiple touchdown games in each of the last two games and this week should no different. Winston is available in 18% of Yahoo leagues and 31.3% of ESPN leagues. Marcus Mariota has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league over the last four weeks. Mariota has scored 28+ points twice and 19+ point three times in those four games. Still, no one seems to believe in him. Mariota is available in 39.4% of ESPN leagues and 24% of Yahoo leagues. In a longer stretch, Joe Flacco is available in most leagues and he will be playing the Steelers defense in a home game with the bye week to prepare.
Devontae Booker should be owned in all leagues at this point. Yet, he is still available in about 10-12% of leagues. In other news, Theo Riddick is back and starting so he should be started in all leagues. He is available in 15-20% of leagues and will be used in the run game and in the passing game. He has additional value in PPR formats. Duke Johnson is also widely available (roughly 35% of all leagues). He is a bit inconsistent, but he has value in the passing game. He is far more useful in a PPR format, but Hue Jackson is finding ways to get him more involved in the offensive plan. The more obvious pickup is Tim Hightower. Hightower got a high number of carries last week and should continue to be a good part of the offense from here on out. He is still available in over 90% of all leagues.
Going big out of the gate here. Tavon Austin is available in 44.8% of ESPN leagues and 32% of Yahoo leagues. No one has faith in Austin and that has been steadily built over years of underwhelming performances. You may not have noticed, but Austin has had double digit targets two of the last three weeks. Austin has had eight or more targets in five of seven games. If you need a flex or a WR2 in deeper leagues, Austin is worth a look. Mohamed Sanu showed that the Falcons have a good second option. The Packers held Julio Jones to three catches and 29 yards so Sanu responded with nine catches on ten targets. Sanu ended with 84 yards and a touchdown. Sanu has had 10 targets in two of the last three games. He could be an interesting add in deeper leagues as a possible WR2. Sanu is available in 46% of Yahoo leagues and 52.9% of ESPN leagues.