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Packers 2016 Roster: APC Poll results show two 53-man spots available on offense

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If you assume that Green Bay will keep no more than 25 players on offense, APC's readers believe that only two of those spots are really and truly up for grabs.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY Sports

We at Acme Packing Company broke down the players on the Green Bay Packers' 90-man roster over the past week, looking specifically at the offense. At each position, we asked our readers to vote on the likelihood of each player making the final 53-man roster, assuming no further injuries.

Today, we have the results of the survey for you. We broke down the results into two parts - first a look at how the players were classified overall and then the raw results of the poll. The results show that 23 players are viewed as either locks to make the team or as likely to be on the 53-man roster, with eight players on the bubble and another 15 having little or no chance to be on the active roster out of training camp

In deciding what category each player fell into, we took a mathematical approach. Each vote for "Lock" was worth 4 points, "likely" was 3, "bubble" was 2, "unlikely" was 1, and "virtually no chance" was zero. We then totaled up the points to determine a final value in terms of the percentage of total votes. Players earning at least 80% of the possible points were qualified as locks; 60% are likely, and so on down the line.

Here are the final results of this week's survey.

Roster Breakdown

Locks

Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley
Running Backs: Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Aaron Ripkowski (FB)
Wide Receivers: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery
Tight Ends: Richard Rodgers, Jared Cook
Offensive Linemen: David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Corey Linsley, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, JC Tretter, Jason Spriggs

You judged there to be 17 players who are guaranteed roster spots for 2016, including an impressive list of seven offensive linemen. There are few surprises at quarterback, running back, and tight end. One name who may be a slight surprise is Ty Montgomery, who is continuing to rehab the ankle injury he suffered in 2015. He and Ripkowski narrowly beat the 80% cutoff to be qualified as locks, as each player got just over 50% of the voters to pick them in that category. Otherwise, however, these all appear to be the logical picks.

Likely to make the team

Quarterbacks: None
Running Backs: John Crockett
Wide Receivers: Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis
Tight Ends: None
Offensive Linemen: Lane Taylor, Kyle Murphy

Of the three wide receivers voted as "likely" to make the roster, Adams had the least support. He had just 64% of voters support him as likely or a lock, compared to 82% for Janis and 71% for Davis. Taylor just barely made the cutoff from being on the bubble, landing about 63% of the possible points. This also leaves the Packers with nine offensive linemen already, meaning that the bubble players would almost certainly be left off.

These results would leave the Packers with 23 players on offense, and in past years they have traditionally kept no more than 25 players on that side of the ball - and it has often been 24, with 26 on defense and three specialists. This would leave a likely maximum of two of the bubble players making the team.

On the bubble

Quarterbacks: Joe Callahan
Running Backs: None
Wide Receivers: Jared Abbrederis
Tight Ends: Justin Perillo, Kennard Backman
Offensive Linemen: Don Barclay, Josh Walker, Matt Rotheram

APC's readers see eight players vying for those two or so bubble spots - a pair of tight ends, four linemen, a quarterback, and a receiver.

Perhaps the biggest surprise here is that Callahan snuck in on the bubble over Ryan Williams. Both players were extremely close to the 40% cutoff, with Callahan barely cracking the mark at 41.2% and Williams falling below at 37.7%.

You can see here, however, how the Packers could keep seven wide receivers on the roster: by keeping two quarterbacks, four running backs, and nine offensive linemen, they could hang on to Abbrederis and a tight end and have 25 offensive players.

Unlikely to make the team

Quarterbacks: Ryan Williams
Running Backs: Don Jackson, Brandon Burks, Alstevis Squirewell (FB)
Wide Receivers: Ed Williams, Geronimo Allison
Tight Ends: Mitchell Henry, Casey Pierce
Offensive Linemen: Vince Kowalski

Here are the players with a slim but non-zero chance of making the team. Given Crockett's familiarity with the offense, it is probably no surprise that both of the undrafted running backs are unlikely to make the squad. One name I was surprised to see here was Henry, who was the closest of any of these players to the bubble mark at 39%.

Virtually no chance

Quarterbacks: None
Running Backs: None
Wide Receivers: Jamel Johnson, Devonte Robinson, Herb Waters
Tight Ends: None
Offensive Linemen: Josh James, Jacob Flores, Cory Tucker

Finally, we have six players on the 90-man roster whom you all believe to be just camp bodies. Five of the six are undrafted free agents this year. The only holdover from last year is Jamel Johnson, who spent December on the Packers' practice squad.

Raw Results

Below, we have the breakdown of votes for each player by percentage of votes earned in each category. Note that we have omitted results that came in under 3% due to a very small proportion of respondents who did not take the survey seriously or who were virtually alone in their voting. (Although almost 7% of people voted Aaron Rodgers as being "unlikely to make the team", for example. Come on, people.) Results omitted or under 3% are noted by "n/s" for not significant.

Quarterback
Player Lock Likely Bubble Unlikely Virtually No Chance
Aaron Rodgers 90.2% n/s n/s n/s 6.8% (really, people?)
Brett Hundley 82.3% 13.5% n/s n/s n/s
Joe Callahan 7.7% 12.0% 34.3% 29.2% 16.8%
Ryan Williams 4.2% 7.9% 37.4% 35.4% 15.0%
Running Back
Player Lock Likely Bubble Unlikely Virtually No Chance
Eddie Lacy 97.5% n/s n/s n/s n/s
James Starks 76.3% 21.1% n/s n/s n/s
John Crockett 8.7% 51.8% 36.0% n/s n/s
Brandon Burks n/s 6.0% 34.6% 44.6% 13.0%
Don Jackson n/s 5.2% 36.9% 42.6% 13.7%.
Aaron Ripkowski 54.5% 36.8% 5.1% n/s n/s
Alstevis Squirewell n/s 3.8% 19.9% 42.5% 31.8%
Wide Receiver
Player Lock Likely Bubble Unlikely Virtually No Chance
Jordy Nelson 98.4% n/s n./s n/s n/s
Randall Cobb 97.9% n/s n/s n/s n/s
Ty Montgomery 53.8% 41.0% 4.2% n/s n/s
Jeff Janis 24.8% 56.9% 17.7% n/s n/s
Trevor Davis 20.1% 49.9% 24.1% 3.9% n/s
Davante Adams 19/9% 44.9% 31.3% n/s n/s
Jared Abbrederis 6/1% 27.4% 58.3% 7.2% n/s
Ed Williams n/s n/s 14.6% 50.0% 32.9%
Geronimo Allison n/s n/s 13.3% 44.2% 39.0%
Jamel Johnson n/s n/s 9.9% 45.4% 42.0%
Devonte Robinson n/s n/s 10.9% 40.9% 45.2%
Herb Waters n/s n/s 8.4% 38.7% 50.1%
Tight End
Player Lock Likely Bubble Unlikely Virtually No Chance
Jared Cook 91.9% 6.8% n/s n/s n/s
Richard Rodgers 86.1% 12.3% n/s n/s n/s
Justin Perillo 5.0% 34.7% 51.6% 7.3% n/s
Kennard Backman 3.9% 24.2% 55.8% 13.6% n/s
Mitchell Henry n/s/ 8.5% 43.5% 36.5% 9.8%
Casey Pierce n/s n/s 21.5% 43.0% 32.3%
Offensive Line
Player Lock Likely Bubble Unlikely Virtually No Chance
Josh Sitton 98.3% n/s n/s n/s n/s
Corey Linsley 98.0% n/s n/s n/s n/s
T.J. Lang 97.3% n/s n/s n/s n/s
David Bakhtiari 96.7% n/s n/s n/s n/s
Bryan Bulaga 95.1% 3.9% n/s n/s n/s
Jason Spriggs 88.2% 10.2% n/s n/s n/s
JC Tretter 80.5% 18.2% n/s n/s n/s
Kyle Murphy 29.0% 38.9% 21.0% 7.9% 3.1%
Lane Taylor 9.8% 39.8% 43.3% 5.6% n/s
Matt Rotheram 7.0% 23.4% 46.3% 19.4% 3.8%
Don Barclay 5.0% 14.7% 49.4% 25.3% 5.5%
Josh Walker n/s 14.5% 55.2% 24.0% 4.2%
Vince Kowalski n/s 3.3% 22.9% 44.4% 29.0%
Josh James n/s n/s 13.6% 39.1% 44.5%
Cory Tucker n/s n/s 13.8% 37.4% 46.5%
Tyler Flores n/s n/s 12.1% 37.4% 47.8%