Fantasy Football Advice: Who to sit or start in Packers-Ravens

If you are a fan of big time passing, maybe sit this week’s Green Bay Packers-Baltimore Ravens game out. Brett Hundley will be trying to continue his gradual improvement and Joe Flacco will continue being himself. As you get yourself ready for a fix of Packers news and Fantasy Football news, your long wait is over.

QUARTERBACKS

Brett Hundley

Hundley has had moderate success. He has faced some very good defenses in his three starts. He seems to be getting a little faster at making his reads, but he is still hesitating on releasing the ball. You are not starting Hundley. He should fall somewhere in the QB18-24 range. Baltimore has a very good pass defense. Only Jacksonville has surrendered a lower passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens are ranked third in pass defense DVOA. Even in a 2QB format, this is a bad call and a terrible matchup.

Joe Flacco

The matchup looks good for Flacco. The Packers are 23rd in pass defense DVOA, only six interceptions on the year (t-20th in NFL), and just 18 sacks so far (25th in the NFL). However, Flacco is just not good. Here is a crazy stat: in ESPN standard scoring, Joe Flacco (77.3 points) has been outscored by C.J. Beathard (80.7). Beathard has started five games now. Flacco has started all nine of Baltimore’s games. Flacco has only crossed the 200 yard mark four times. Two of those games were against Oakland (32nd pass defense DVOA) and Miami (31st). He cannot be started in any format.

RUNNING BACKS

Jamaal Williams / Ty Montgomery

This is where the Packers offense should look for success. The Ravens are just 19th in run defense DVOA. They surrender the 16th most points to opposing running backs (using ESPN standard scoring). Montgomery did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. He could have some value if he can go, but expect Jamaal Williams to get the bulk of the carries. Obviously, there is a chance that Devante Mays suits up and gets a few carries, but he is not worth rostering at this point in the season.

Alex Collins / Javorius Allen

Baltimore has two styles of running back. Alex Collins is the runner. He leads the team in rushing yards (521) even though he has fewer carries than Allen on the year. Collins gets 5.6 yards per carry and is the thumper of this team. His problem comes against teams with strong running defenses. He did very little against Tennessee and Minnesota in recent weeks. When Baltimore needs less of a grinder and more of a versatile back, they turn to Javorius Allen. Allen actually leads the Ravens in targets (50) and catches (39). Allen’s three total touchdowns tie him with Jeremy Maclin for the team lead. Collins has actually never reached the end zone. Allen should be a low -end RB2 or a Flex this week, but Collins might find it hard sledding out there against a good Packers run defense. Just be aware that Danny Woodhead is expected to return from injured reserve and could steal a few targets in the passing

WIDE RECEIVERS

Davante Adams / Jordy Nelson / Randall Cobb

Yes, I listed Adams first this time. Adams has been the clear target leader on this team without Aaron Rodgers. He has been the only player to maintain fantasy relevance in this passing offense and the only WR with a touchdown in the last three week. Jordy is a prayer play this week. This is a tough pass defense. It appears that Jimmy Smith is not likely to go (DNP on Wednesday/Thursday), but teams have been focusing on stopping Nelson a lot and Adams has been the beneficiary. Cobb is not really worth starting now.

Jeremy Maclin / Mike Wallace

These might be the two most Baltimore WRs ever. Go deep and then look for the ball. They are burners, but very much hit or miss in fantasy. Either they get a deep touchdown or they wasted space on your starting roster. They have combined for 47 receptions, 577 yards and five touchdowns. A.J. Green alone has 44 receptions, 693 yards and five touchdowns. If anything, in a deep league you can use Maclin as a Flex option. He has gotten you double digit points in five of the seven games he has played. That is all you can hope for here.

TIGHT ENDS

Lance Kendricks / Richard Rodgers

This is actually a decent match up for TEs. Baltimore has given up the 11th most points to TEs. It seems to be the weakest part of their pass defense. The issue will still be usage and scheme. The Packers have not really been focusing on increasing the tight end role in this offense over recent weeks. Kendricks could be worth a flyer if you are desperate.

Benjamin Watson

Watson is a stable choice. He will get you some points and it will not be terrible. He has been 8.0+ points in each of his last four games. In fact, he has just one game under eight points this season. Packers linebackers have not been good in coverage, though it appears Joe Thomas is back to full strength now. Watson is a stable guy if you need a streaming option this week.