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Super Bowl 51 Prop Bet Results: APC stinks at picking props

We had a fun little prop bet competition for the Super Bowl at APC, and learned one thing - we probably shouldn’t bet real money on these things.

NFL: Super Bowl LI-New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

On Friday, APC broke down a handful of prop bets for Super Bowl LI to have a little fun with the weekend’s big game. We discussed ten specific bets in particular and asked readers for their choices if they were to bet imaginary dollars on each of them.

The results weren’t pretty.

In fact, only three of the 43 participants would have done better than breaking even on the props, at least based on the results that we have been so far able to determine. Here were the props, along with how APC voted and the final results of each.

Super Bowl MVP

42% of APC survey respondents had Matt Ryan at 9:5 odds, while 28% got it right with Tom Brady, who was even money to win the award. The one person who picked the field at 28:1 had a shot, but the voters picked Brady over running back James White.

Most Receiving Yards

Here’s where the field hit at 15:1, with White leading all players in receiving. Almost half of APC picked Julio Jones at 8:5; Mohamed Sanu got 19% of the vote, with Chris Hogan at 16% and Julian Edelman at 12%.

Most Rushing Yards

Like in the above bet, almost half of APC picked one player. That was Devonta Freeman at 5:2, which turned out to be correct. LeGarrette Blount got 26% of the vote, with Tevin Coleman at 16%.

Coaches’ Challenges

The over/under was one, but Dan Quinn challenged two plays (getting one overturned. 65% of APC took the over.

Tallest Player to score a TD

The over/under was 6’3”, which is exactly Julio Jones’ height. So if he were the tallest player to score, it would have been a push. 72% of APC went with the over, though, and they were right when 6’4” Austin Hooper scored in the second quarter.

First TD

So many options to choose from here, but 12% of APC picked right with Devonta Freeman at 5:1. Here was the voting breakdown:

Blount 23%, Jones 19%, Freeman 12%, Edelman 9%, Sanu 9%; the field got 14% of the vote.

First Anheuser-Busch Ad

As far as I could tell from watching the broadcast, Busch was the surprise winner of this prop, paying out at 12:1. Only two APC’ers picked Busch, with the voting split almost evenly between Budweiser (47%) and Bud Light (44%).

Peyton Manning in a national Super Bowl ad

Seemed like easy money to say yes, didn’t it? Let us know in the comments if you saw him in an ad, but we didn’t, despite 95% of APC saying yes.

Over/Under on Luke Bryan’s National Anthem

This one was entirely dependent on what your over/under was set at. APC used a number from Sportsbettingdime that was 1 minute, 58 seconds, and he went over that at 2 minutes, 4 seconds. However, other sports books had it set at 2:15, and he was under there. APC was split almost 50/50 on this with one more vote for the under.

Lady Gaga Hair

This was fun, with blonde hair getting just 2:3 odds. Still, 44% of APC went that way and were correct. The Field (i.e. not blonde, brown, or pink) got 37% of the vote, with Pink having 12% and brown just 7%.

APC “Winner”

We tallied up the overall results as if each of APC’s respondents had placed $100 on each bet, and assumed no cut for the house (after all, this isn’t Vegas and there’s nothing at stake). The winner was an unnamed reader who hit on three props: MVP, most receiving yards (the field), and most rushing yards, giving him or her $1850 in theoretical winnings.

With ten bets and everyone putting up a thousand imaginary dollars, only 3 of 43 participants would have actually made any money on the bets.