FanPost

Historically, Mike McCarthy has blown leads at exactly the same rate as Bill Belichick

I look at blown leads that were by at least two scores. This means that my analysis starts at blown 11 point leads, where a TD, 2pt Conversion and Field Goal would tie. BB has coached 388 total games to MM's 194. MM has blown leads in 6 of these games, where BB has blown leads in 13. This means that MM blows leads in about 4.6% of games whereas BB blows leads in 4.4% of games. That's, uhhh, an incredibly similar rate, killer instinct be damned.

When BB and MM do blow two score leads, the average amount of points they blow them by is similar as well. In 6 blown losses, MM blew leads totaling 85 points. In 13 blown losses, BB blew leads totaling 183 points. So then the average two score blown lead by MM was 14.17 points and the average two score blown lead by BB was 14.08 points. Again, these numbers are really similar!

However, BB does have one advantage of sorts, which is: when he does blow a two score lead, the other team wins by less. Opponents coming back by at least two scores against BB won by 5.38 points on average. In contrast, opponents coming back from at least two scores against MM won by 7.67 points.

Here are the games:

Tm Opp Date PF PA LD
Green Bay Packers New Orleans Saints 17-Sep-06 27 34 13
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears 22-Dec-08 17 20 11
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-Nov-09 28 38 11
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts 7-Oct-12 27 30 18
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals 22-Sep-13 30 34 16
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks 18-Jan-15 22 28 16
New England Patriots @ New York Jets 11-Sep-00 19 20 12
New England Patriots Miami Dolphins 24-Dec-00 24 27 11
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 20-Dec-04 28 29 11
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts 21-Jan-07 34 38 18
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts 15-Nov-09 34 35 17
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 6-Dec-09 21 22 14
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans 3-Jan-10 27 34 14
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills 25-Sep-11 31 34 21
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens 23-Sep-12 30 31 13
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks 14-Oct-12 23 24 13
New England Patriots @ New York Jets 20-Oct-13 27 30 11
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos 29-Nov-15 24 30 14
New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles 6-Dec-15 28 35 14

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