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APC NFL Mailbag, Week 2: Win-Loss records, Ty Montgomery, and the Chiefs

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We’ve got mail! Answering inquiries this week on where teams will be record-wise by season’s end and measuring the value of two key NFL players.

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

First thing’s first: thank you all for the participation! I hope these mailbags are as fun to read as they are to write. Feels great to interact with football fans outside of the comments section.

There was so much mail last week, that I decided to answer more from a few days ago. The questions still hold up and aren’t as time sensitive as some last week. Look out for the next #AskAPC or Acme Facebook status to get your questions in.

Let’s open some mail.

Quinn Kaiser from Facebook with the first piece of mail: I love bad football teams. Is there any reason I shouldn't put down a mortgage on the Jets being under 4.5 wins this season?

Not only will they not win 5 games, I don’t think they even want to compete in 5 games. The Jets are bad and they’re doing that thing where they’re tanking, but not overtly saying that they’re tanking. The Bills just came in and took care of business pretty handily, too. And the Bills are just as bad.

Josh McCown is their quarterback and Jermaine Kearse is their best wide receiver. They’re also holding Matt Forte hostage and won’t let him finish his career with a winner.

Take the under, Quinn. As a matter of fact, I have your information. Halfsies?

Alex Jacobson on the Facebook: How bad will the Chiefs defense be if Eric Berry is out for the season?

The Chiefs won convincingly against the Patriots during the opening game, but the loss of Berry might not have been worth it for the Chiefs. Gronkowski fantasy owners will know well that Eric Berry was the reason he wasn’t able to score any points after that ‘almost touchdown.’ He took over and took Gronk out of the game like only a few players in the league can do.

The bright side is that Justin Houston looked like he was at 100% and ready to contribute. Marcus Peters will still be able to do some things, including gambling on interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus, though, Berry has been on the field for 96% of the Chiefs defensive snaps over the last 2 seasons.

That’s a lot of snaps for a top rated safety.


Okay, calm down, Mercury Morris, I’m just kidding.

When teams start going on record breaking runs, the sports karma in me feels like those teams need to lose in order to humble them slightly. Think Patriots in ‘07. (Part of me wanted them to lose in Week 1 just to get it out of the way) (Don’t tell my editor).

The Packers have some tough tests still left on the schedule, but I’ll pencil them in for a confident 13-3. Let me know if that’s overly confident. There are a lot of tough games to call coming up, including playoff rematches with Dallas and Atlanta. There’s also a tough Pittsburgh offense that could bring up problems. A Week 8 bye provides a nice mid-season breather, however.

There are also division match-ups that are always tough to call because the opponents know each other better and always play a little bit harder. Which means looking out for tough match-ups against the Vikings and Lions are most likely.

As you can tell I’m a little conflicted.

You know what? I change my answer. Let’s go with 12-4. It’s a safer pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers locked up the division by week 15 and coasted the last 2 weeks.

Andrew Schuba with the Facebook question this time: Who finishes with the worst record?

This one’s weird because football is a game of inches and any given Sunday, you’re gonna win or you’re gonna lose. I promise that’s my only football philosophy shaped by Al Pacino.

That being said, I think the Jets or the Niners are the ones most likely to find themselves in position to occupy the top two picks of the 2018 draft. They don’t have quarterbacks that are going to help them and while the defenses have some good players, they’re still suspect. As stated earlier, I think the Jets will win way under 4.5 games, but also I think the Niners are staring down 2-3 wins as well. The fans already know what they’re getting in their not-quite-in-San-Francisco team.

Also, I see sneaky Colts potential to just blow it up. They have Andrew Luck looming, but without him there’s no reason to believe this team will be competitive. Depending on Luck’s health, the Colts may just want to punt on this season.

From a fantasy perspective, I think he leans more towards an RB2 in standard leagues because of the run production. It’s hard to tell how much work Montgomery will actually get, but his pass catching upside puts him at an RB1 status for PPR leagues. He’s fully embraced the running back position and in Week 1 he was on the field for 90% of the Packers’ offensive plays.

You’d like to see more out of his rushing attempts (2.8 yards per rush), but his utility use (9.8 yards per catch) will keep him on the field early and often.

Thanks, guys! Let’s do this again real soon.