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Packers Draft Rumors: What would it take for Green Bay to move up into the top ten?

We break down what picks the Packers would need to forfeit if they indeed want to pick earlier in round one on Thursday.

NFL: 2016 NFL Draft Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL’s draft trade value chart may be old and a bit antiquated, but it is still the best resource available when it comes to evaluating the trades of selections during the NFL Draft. With the Green Bay Packers rumored to be “plotting” a move up in the first round to select a top player, it’s worth running through the scenarios to see what sort of compensation would be reasonable for various spots.

I set a few ground rules here, however; I assumed that Brian Gutekunst, a Ted Thompson disciple, will not consider trading any of next year’s draft picks in order to move up. Therefore, we’re limited to this year’s picks only. I also tried to make sure the values for both teams were as close as possible — few if any will be exactly even, but I was able to come within 10 points on most of these with one stretching out to a 17-point difference in the favor of the team trading down to the Packers’ 14th pick. Of course, when there are multiple teams calling to trade up, that puts the leverage in the hands of the seller, meaning that they can drive prices up. Therefore, it might take more than the proposed packages to actually get there.

The next bit of speculation would be who the Packers’ target would be. Logic would dictate that drafting one of the top defensive backs, cornerback Denzel Ward from Ohio State or safety Derwin James from Florida State, would be the goal. That assumption is corroborated by a report from Tony Pauline on Wednesday.

However, it is also possible that the Packers have their eyes on pass-rusher Bradley Chubb from NC State, in which case they would likely have to find a way to get a few slots higher. For that reason, we examined every potential trade scenario for the Packers starting with the 5th pick and moving back to selection number 12.

Pick #5 — Denver Broncos

Denver has made it clear that they are open to trading the fifth pick, and the Packers would need to offer up some serious compensation to get that high if they were targeting a player like Bradley Chubb. This seems like too big a package to give up, though, since they would not have any more picks until day three afterwards.

Broncos trade 1.5 and 4.113 (1768 points)
Packers trade 1.14, 2.45, 3.76 (1760 points)

Pick #6 — Indianapolis Colts

Indy now has a whopping four picks in the top 50, but a move back would net them at least one more. The Packers might be able to make this deal work without including their third-rounder, but you can bet that if they’re calling Indy, the Colts will try to work them for that pick at 76. Still, from a numbers perspective, this works out pretty well.

Colts trade 1.6 (1600)
Packers trade 1.14, 2.45, and 4.133 (1589)

Pick #7 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs could very well stand pat and grab one of the top defensive players in this draft. If the Packers are targeting Denzel Ward or Derwin James, they may need to get to 7. Thankfully, this seems pretty doable if Brian Gutekunst doesn’t feel the need to pick in the second round.

Buccaneers trade 1.7 and 5.144 (1533.5)
Packers trade 1.14 and 2.45 (1550)

Pick #8 — Chicago Bears

Would the Bears trade down with their biggest rival? Crazier things have happened, but it’s tough to imagine. Still, this could work, and the Packers wouldn’t even need to give up their second-rounder.

Bears trade 1.8 (1400)
Packers trade 1.14, 3.76, and 4.101 (1406)

Pick #9 — San Francisco 49ers

This is the place where I predicted that the Packers would try to move. The values on the board work out right for this five-spot jump, and although it would leave the Packers without a third-round pick, they could still package pick 101 (the first pick on day three) and one or more of their three fifth-rounders to sneak back into the late part of day two.

49ers trade 1.9 (1350)
Packers trade 1.14, 3.76, and 4.133 (1349)

Pick #10 — Oakland Raiders

This could be a two-for-one swap, leaving out the fourth-rounder and giving the Packers the ability to move a bit farther up into round 3 (say, to 87 or so) than they would have without that extra fourth.

Raiders trade 1.10 (1300)
Packers trade 1.14, 3.76 (1310)

Pick #11 — Miami Dolphins

Buffalo seems likely to move out of the 12 spot, maybe going up for a quarterback, so a move to 11 would only really help if we know who trades back to 12. Still, the Packers could go with a two-for-two swap, moving up three picks in round one while downgrading from the third round to the middle of round four.

Dolphins trade 1.11, 4.123 (1299)
Packers trade 1.14, 3.76 (1310)

Pick #12 — Buffalo Bills

Washington at 13 could have some similar desires on defense to those of the Packers, with both teams likely needing some help at defensive back. Jumping ahead of Washington shouldn’t cost the Packers any more than the first pick on day three.

Bills trade 1.12 (1200)
Packers trade 1.14, 4.101 (1196)