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Three for Three: Packers 2018 Week 6 Scouting Report vs. San Francisco 49ers

October is my favorite sports month of the year. With the NFL and college football in fulll swing, club soccer across Europe, MLB playoffs, and the impending NBA and NHL seasons, it’s an awesome time to be a sports fan. One event I tune in to annually that flies outside of traditional sports circles is the League of Legends World Championship. Sixteen of the best teams from all across the world gather together to see who will hoist the trophy for one of the most popular competitive video games on the planet. That’s right, this intense competition takes place on a virtual playing field via mouses and keyboards in front of packed sporting arenas and hundreds of thousands if not millions watching online for their cut of millions of dollars in prizes.

For those unfamiliar with it, each game consists of two teams of five working together to eliminate opposing players and take objectives spread across the map before they respawn with the ultimate goal being to destroy the other team’s base. Now, I’m not here to argue for whether eSports should reside in the same realm as more traditional athletic sports and competitions. That said, there are applicable insights from one to the other that warrant examination.

Different teams go about accomplishing the same objective in vastly different ways both based on their own players and those of the team they are going against. There is a great deal of practice, studying, and strategy that goes into developing a gameplan that can also be adjusted as needed during the match. Even then, one mistake at the wrong time can render all that preparation mostly irrelevant. The best teams are those that communicate, limit their mistakes, and work together to augment their individual talent within the framework of the team.

Some pundits have said the Packers are a bad team, but I believe that is an oversimplification of the issue. They are an incredibly inconsistent team at this juncture, one whose highs have been very good and whose lows have been very, very poor. This is a team that gave strong Bears and Vikings teams fits at times in their matchups, but also one who struggled with mistakes against the likes of Detroit and Washington who have suffered their share of issues to start the year. For all of the potential that this team has shown at times, it has been too often marred by critical mistakes derailing them. As the Packers head into this last week before bye week, it falls to the team as a whole to figure out where communication has broken down, what mistakes need to be corrected, and work to elevate the play of one another to deliver on the promise that this team has shown. The season is long and it is certainly not over yet.

Offense

  • What many feared when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1 against Chicago became reality for San Francisco as they lost franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to injury earlier this season. Thrust into the starting job, backup C.J. Beathard has filled in admirably in Garappolo’s stead. Though he lacks the arm talent to throw into tight windows, he generally makes smart decisions and hits receivers when they are open. He has finished with around 300 passing yards in each of his two starts this season and has helped keep the 49ers close in both matchups. However, Beathard struggles when his protection breaks down, meaning that if the first couple of reads aren’t there on a play, he is unlikely to create a positive outcome. Ultimately, keeping games close and hoping the rest of the team can make up the difference is all you can ask for given a situation like this.
  • Before Sean McVay took the league by storm as the young prodigy helming the Los Angeles Rams and their explosive offense, Kyle Shanahan was the toast of NFL circles in helping the Falcons to a Super Bowl with a dynamic offense helmed by MVP quarterback Matt Ryan. Now the head coach and offensive coordinator in San Francisco, Shanahan is still one of the best offensive minds the NFL has to offer. His schemes rely heavily on play action and keeping opposing defenses off balance by making them respect his team’s balance both running and passing the ball. He excels in play design, consistently manipulating his personnel to create open opportunities even with the limited stable of playmakers he currently has. In many ways, the success or failure of Beathard and the Niners offense in this matchup and moving forward will be tied to Shanahan’s ability to design successful gameplans with the personnel he has.
  • San Francisco will be missing arguably their most valuable piece coming into this week. Running back Matt Breida has looked dynamic at times as a runner and receiver, stepping into the primary role due to the preseason injury to Jerick McKinnon. However, Breida is dealing with an ankle injury and unlikely to play on Monday, so the starting role will fall to Alfred Morris. More of a between the tackles runner than Breida, Morris has a history with Shanahan’s zone running scheme from their days in Washington and has been moderately successful this season. As far as consistent pass catchers, the standout has been big tight end George Kittle. A teammate of Beathard’s at the University of Iowa, Kittle has found room both underneath and deeper downfield in the passing attack and been a valuable outlet for the offense. In many ways, he reminds me of former Ravens tight end Todd Heap and should be a focal point moving forward.

Defense

  • Despite the setbacks on offense, the Niners have fielded one of the better defensive units in the league so far this season and much of that starts with their talent along the defensive line. Rather than using slightly smaller, speedier linemen (especially on the edge) as some teams do in a four man front, San Francisco deploys a trio of highly drafted bulldozers all hailing from the PAC-12 conference. Defensive ends Solomon Thomas and Arik Armstead and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner possess the size and strength to push offensive linemen back and win position at the point of attack. Though they don’t accumulate sack numbers like some fronts, they can still shrink the pocket in pass protection and force opposing passers into mistakes. This unit anchors much of what San Francisco does defensively and is arguably the most underappreciated unit in the league.
  • Behind their bullish front, the teams linebackers work to seal any holes the line might leave open up front. Former Super Bowl MVP Malcom Smith is the veteran of the trio, using his exceptional speed to cover ground and make plays over the middle of the field. Former first round pick Reuben Foster fits the mold of most Alabama linebackers at the pro level: Big, physical, and still athletic enough to hold his own in coverage. Rookie Fred Warner holds down the middle linebacker spot and has played solidly so far this season after a prolific college career at BYU. It will be important for the Packers chip and block effectively against the size, strength, and speed this front seven presents if they are going to have success on Monday night, particularly in the running game.
  • On the perimeter, San Francisco employs a couple of big, physical cornerbacks in coverage, one of which should be plenty familiar to the Green Bay faithful. Richard Sherman anchors the left cornerback spot he became a star in during his time with the "Legion of Boom" in Seattle. Though he has lost a step or two since his dominance with the Seahawks, he is still one of the most intelligent defenders in the league and knows how to utilize his height and frame to position himself and breakup passes in coverage. Opposite him is young cornerback Akhello Witherspoon. Sporting a similarly tall frame, he and Sherman will likely look to jam receivers on the perimeter and knock them off their route timing, something that could prove problematic for Green Bay given the injuries at receiver they have dealt with the past couple weeks.

Final Thoughts

Crucial Matchup: Fullback Kyle Juszczyk vs. Packers Defense

  • A fullback?! It’s not often with today’s focus on spreading defenses out and throwing the ball all over the park that a team will employ a fullback consistently on offense. That said, there aren’t many fullbacks like Juszczyk who remains an important piece of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive gameplan despite the rest of the league largely eliminating the position. With Breida likely sitting out for this game, the 49ers will be leaning on Alfred Morris and trying to run between the tackles on offense utilizing Juszczyk as a lead blocker in those instances. Additionally, Breida was the primary pass catching back for San Francisco, a role Morris is not very accomplished in. Juszczyk is an accomplished receiver throughout his career and has been utilized all across the formation in that role for Shanahan’s offense. His versatility combined with the injury to Breida could lead to an increased workload for Juszczyk as the 49ers look to find ways to move the ball in a tough matchup at Lambeau.

Flashback
  • Though they had struggled in two previous playoff matchups against San Francisco, the last time the 49ers and Packers faced off was largely a landslide the other direction in early October of 2015. San Francisco failed to get much going offensively with Colin Kaepernick under center, totaling just a field goal on the day. Green Bay held a healthy advantage in possession with Eddy Lacy totaling 90 yards on the ground and Rodgers having an efficient, but unspectacular day through the air for 224 yards and a touchdown as the Packers cruised to a 17-3 victory on the road.
Prediction
  • Through five games and a grab bag of mixed results this season, it’s hard to know for sure how the Packers will perform in a given week. This is a team who could just as easily be 4-1 with a little bit better execution as they could be 1-4 if a few breaks didn’t go their way. With that said, this game feels most similar to the Buffalo game in that so long as Green Bay doesn’t put themselves in a hole with mistakes and missed execution, they should be able to control the game against an offense that will struggle to consistently move the ball. Given the likelihood of more possessions and better field position for the offense, hopefully they can find a rhythm that has eluded them at times this season. I’ll take Green Bay to win comfortably this week. San Francisco 13 Green Bay 34

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