FanPost

Three for Three: Packers 2018 Week 11 Scouting Report at Seattle Seahawks

Defining rivalries can be a fickle thing when it comes to sports. Some rivalries are based on geography, two neighbors clashing culturally or in border wars and the like on a regular basis. Others products of their historical context, snapshots of the individual eras and circumstances that gave life to them. The best rivalries are seemingly eternal, with histories dating back to the very origin of their respective sports. Rivalries wax and wane with the passing of time, flaring up and dying out as new characters enter the fold and generations turn over. One thing never changes though: Whoever your team’s rivals are, you always really hate to play those guys. And you especially hate to lose.

For a team with the longstanding tradition that the Green Bay Packers have, their biggest rivals have been established for decades at this point and are woven into the very fabric of the league’s history. The Packers rivalries with the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings are among the league’s oldest and there is plenty of bad blood that gets built up when you play a team twice a year for decades. Geography certainly plays a role as the NFC North has all of it’s teams bunched in one region as opposed to some other divisions where teams are spread out across different regions like the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.

The best rivalries have stakes though and few teams have repeatedly played against one another with more on the line in the last decade than the Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers and Seahawks have both been among the strongest teams in the NFL in recent memory and consistently competing for conference supremacy in the NFC. Both teams employed some of the best units in the NFL at the height of their powers (the Packers on offense and the Seahawks on defense). Both have some of the most passionate fans in the entire league with Seattle’s 12th Man and the community of Green Bay owning the Packers franchise. These two teams have combined for a number of classic matchups in the regular season and postseason, including a couple of harrowing losses for Green Bay via the "Fail Mary" and the 2014 NFC Championship game.

This is the kind of matchup that has stood out on the schedule in past years as heavily determining home field advantage in the playoffs or even which team would squeak into the playoffs all together. And although this rivalry has a little less luster this year as both teams have struggled to find consistent success, this is still a potentially season defining game for both teams as the loser likely has no chance at making the playoffs this year while the other still has a shot. It’s hard to see either team competing for a championship this season, but it will still be a massive disappointment should either of these squads be left out in the cold with so much left to play for this year. In short, this game has stakes. This game matters.

Offense

  • There’s something special about watching the truly great playmaking quarterbacks ply their craft on the field. The guys who are at their best when everything is falling apart around them, keep the play alive, and find a way to make something out of nothing on any play. Aaron Rodgers has been as good at this as anyone who has ever played, but Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is certainly in that conversation. Wilson’s combination of mobility, accuracy in the pocket or scrambling, quick decision making, and intelligence makes him a nightmare for defenders to contain when plays breakdown. Though his passing volume has been reduced compared to the last couple years, Wilson is still among the league’s elite at the position and has been using the team’s resurgence in the running game to punish teams with play action shots downfield. If he is able to extend plays with his legs and force Green Bay to put a spy on him defensively, it could be challenging for the Packers to stop Seattle’s running game and keep Wilson in check.
  • During the height of their powers under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks offense was defined by a punishing, physical running game helmed by Marshawn Lynch. For the first time since Beastmode left Seattle, the Seahawks have found success running the football and have one of the highest proportions of running plays in the NFL. While the league becomes more passing focused as a whole, the Seahawks truly go against the grain and are a run first team behind a much improved offensive line and with a stable of talented runners at their disposal. Chris Carson has been the lead back for much of this season, excelling as a downhill, inside runner helping keep the chains moving on offense. He has also dealt with injuries in recent weeks, leading to increased opportunities for his backup Mike Davis. The former 49er shows good vision finding creases in opposing defenses and is a capable checkdown target for Wilson. However, the recent development for this group was the breakout performance of Rashaad Penny, the team’s first round pick this offseason. Though he has struggled to find playing time to this point, Penny showed great shiftiness and burst in the team’s close loss to the Rams last week. All three running backs have 100 yard rushing performances in games this season, lending Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer immense flexibility when distributing touches to their offense moving forward.
  • Despite Seattle’s resurgence in the running game, the team’s pass catchers have still found opportunities to do damage and present some intriguing matchup considerations. Doug Baldwin has been the team’s star receiver and Wilson’s favorite target historically, though he has been slowed by injury to start the year and his production reflects that. However, he is the Seahawks most talented pass catcher and has caught fire down the stretch multiple times in past years and always has the potential for a big performance. Interestingly, I would argue that the most important receiver for the offense this year has been speedster Tyler Lockett. As teams have to focus more on stopping the team’s potent running attack, Wilson and company have found success with play action passes and there has been no greater beneficiary of that than Lockett. He has caught a number of deep touchdown passes this year and is a constant threat for a big play if teams don’t respect his deep threat ability.

Defense

  • The Seahawks vaunted "Legion of Boom" was one of the most dominant defenses in the league in recent memory. That chapter of the team’s history is largely over now as standouts Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas have all likely played their last snaps for the franchise as the defense transitions this season. What has become evident this year watching Seattle play is that although their star defenders are gone, the defense as a whole still embodies many of the same characteristics as those previous teams: defenders tackle well, swarm aggressively to the ball, and play a very physical brand of defense as a unit. The defensive line lacks some of the potency of previous iterations, but is still a generally solid unit. Defensive end Frank Clark is the top pass rusher up front with a strong bull rush and tackle Jarran Reed anchors the interior line against the run and can collapse the pocket on passing downs. This isn’t the most talented unit the Packers have faced this season, but could still cause the team problems given some of the struggles they’ve had in pass protection this season.
  • Even as this defense has lost many of it’s key contributors from past years, the linchpin of this unit is still star linebacker Bobby Wagner. Though the team’s secondary during the Legion of Boom garnered most of the headlines, Wagner’s ability and intelligence enabled a lot of the defense’s success and he has flourished as injuries limited the team’s other star defenders in recent seasons. He is the quintessential middle linebacker in the modern NFL, exhibiting a unique blend of strength, speed, agility, and elite instincts allow him to make plays consistently all over the field. Wagner is an elite tackler and always seems to be around the football making plays for this defense. His play elevates the performance of his teammates at all three levels and you would be hard pressed to find a better, more complete linebacker in all of football than Wagner is for Seattle.
  • Despite the losses of Sherman and Chancellor this offseason and Thomas to injury this season, Seattle’s secondary has played solidly so far. Rookie cornerback Tre Flowers is quietly having a good year, using his elite size and length in much the same role as Sherman filled defensively. It will be interesting to see how his development continues and if he can learn the same intelligence and ball skills that made Sherman such an outstanding cover man. Opposite him, second year corner Shaquill Griffin is a strong, all-around athlete and has improved considerably after some rocky performances his rookie year. Finally, strong safety Bradley McDougald is an enforcer on the backend, flying into receivers to break up potential receptions over the middle and further embodying the physical identity of this team.

Final Thoughts

Crucial Matchup: Punter Michael Dickson vs. Packers Special Teams


  • Usually it’s a bad thing if a team’s punter will feature heavily for them in a game as it means their offense is struggling to sustain drives. That said, not all teams play like the Seahawks and not all punters are like rookie Michael Dickson. The Texas Longhorn specialist is an absolute weapon in the kicking game and consistently pins opposing teams in the shadow of their own goal post with his elite power, hangtime, and kick placement. This skill set is especially important given Seattle’s emphasis on the running game, granting them a huge advantage in the battle for field position. Poor field position and the incredible crowd noise at Century Link Field could be problematic for a Packers offense that has struggled with mistakes and consistency throughout this season. Additionally, Pete Carroll is more than willing to go aggressive on fourth down and run fakes with his special teams units, something Dickson has shown a propensity for as he scrambled for a first down on fourth down late in the team’s win against Detroit.

Flashback

  • As noted previously, Green Bay has seen it’s fair share of Seattle in recent memory and overwhelmingly, the home team has come away victorious in their matchups. The home team has won the last seven games in this series and 12 of the last 13 dating back to 2003 with the lone exception being a Packers victory in 2008. The last time these two faced off in an early season clash a year ago. Green Bay hosted Seattle in a close contest at Lambeau field where the Packers just managed to convert a couple more positions into touchdowns than the Seahawks. Rodgers threw for over 300 yards and Green Bay emerged victorious 17-9.

Prediction

  • Though the Seahawks haven’t been as strong as previous years, this is still a very tricky matchup for the Packers. They have struggled mightily on the road this year, having yet to win a game, and Seattle boasts one of the biggest homefield advantages in the sport. They have figured out who they are as a team this season and have come within spitting distance of beating elite teams like the Rams (twice) and Chargers in the last month. Granted, the Packers have found new life with the coaching staffs willingness to heavily use running back Aaron Jones on Sunday and if Green Bay leaves Seattle with a win, I think it will be on the back of another strong performance from him. Ultimately though, the combination of the Packers inconsistency, a short week, and a tough road venue lead me to think Green Bay will fall short this week and likely be left out of the playoffs come January. Packers 17 Seahawks 23

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