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Three for Three: Packers 2018 Week 13 Scouting Report vs. Arizona Cardinals

There’s really no bones about it at this point: this has been a disappointing season to be a Packers fan so far. The team hasn’t been eliminated from playoff contention yet, but it’s hard to see a realistic path to the playoffs for a squad that has struggled mightily this season. That said, this sort of season has been the relative floor for a franchise that has been a contender more often than not over the last quarter century. This would mark only the fourth time since 1992 that Green Bay finishes with a losing record if the team doesn’t win four of their next five games. In short, it has been a very good time to be a Packers fan in my lifetime.

I wasn’t alive in the post-Lombardi 70’s and 80’s when the team struggled to recapture the magic of their championship winning years. I haven’t known the grinding disappointment of watching a team flail in futility year over year and constantly hope that next season might be better. I consider myself lucky for that. Sustained success is the exception rather than the rule in the NFL and for every team like the Packers, Patriots, or Steelers that seem to be in contention every year, there are teams like the Browns, Raiders, and the rest of the AFC East that annually finish near the bottom of the league.

There are lots of elements that go into the success or failure of an NFL franchise. Ownership needs to find and hire talented people to shape the front office and coaching staff. The front office needs to construct a talented roster that can fit the needs of the coaching staff and the coaching staff in turn needs to generate a strategy and program that will best emphasize and succeed with the players on the roster. Ultimately all of this work can be for not if the players on the field can’t succeed and help deliver wins. Obviously having a good quarterback is a cornerstone for success as a football team, but the best teams are those that combine quarterback play with playmakers, strong line play, and a defense that can find stops and keep their offense in good field position.

It takes so many factors working in conjunction to find success at football’s highest level. Franchises are complex machines where any choice, any shift, any change can have rippling effects to other areas of the organization and effect them positively or negatively. It takes a deft hand to successfully adapt and tune such a machine and keep it in top running condition year after year as different parts need to be replaced shifted around to accommodate new elements. No matter how Green Bay’s season finishes, this organization faces a difficult offseason with a number of crucial decisions to help put this team back in contention. The silver lining though is this franchise doesn’t need a complete rebuild from what has sustained them for so long. Rather a few properly implemented fixes and changes should be enough to put this team back in the title hunt. Finding the right changes though will be the difference between getting back to the playoffs and another season that falls short of expectation.



Offense

  • I don’t know that anyone had high expectations for the Arizona Cardinals coming into this year, but any hope for this team has gone out the window as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. The team is firmly in rebuilding mode and began that process this offseason with the selection of quarterback Josh Rosen in the first round. Touted as the best pure passer in the draft, Rosen has been thrust into the starting role after the poor play (and subsequent release) of veteran Sam Bradford who was brought in this offseason to give Rosen time to acclimate to the pro game. Even with Rosen at the helm, the team has struggled to produce offensively as the team ranks dead last in yards per game (rushing and passing) as well as points per game with their only wins coming against the similarly struggling 49ers twice. He has surpassed 250 passing yards just once this season and struggled with accuracy as the Cardinals worst ranked offensive line, via Pro Football Focus, has failed to protect him. Rosen has the arm talent to be a successful NFL quarterback, but his rookie season will largely be a lost cause as the team doesn’t have the talent around him to sustain any sort of offensive success and really see what he’s capable of.
  • As much as Rosen has struggled behind the Cardinals porous offensive line, no player has been hampered more by the team’s offensive ineptitude than star running back David Johnson. He notched his first one hundred yard rushing performance two weeks ago against the hapless Raiders rush defense and only has four games total with over one hundred total yards despite being the clear best player on offense. This is in extreme contrast to his breakout season two years ago in which he totaled over 2100 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. At his best, Johnson is arguably the most talented, complete running back in the league. He runs with exceptional vision, lateral quickness, and burst that make him a threat every time he carries the ball. However, he truly separates himself as a receiver, utilizing his time at the position in college to hone himself into an absolute matchup nightmare catching the ball out of the backfield. If the Cardinals are going to remain competitive in this game, they will need a massive performance from Johnson this weekend.
  • After having one of the most complete receiving corps in the league during the team’s peak this decade, the Cardinals have an absolute dearth of pass catching talent currently. Future Hall of Farmer Larry Fitzgerald is in the twilight of his stellar career and has dealt with a couple injuries this season along with the team’s struggles on offense. Though he has struggled with production overall he has started to find the end zone of late, scoring five touchdowns over the team’s last five games while running mostly from the slot. Arizona’s most productive receiver this season has been rookie Christian Kirk out of Texas A&M. Though the former Aggie is more of a slot receiver by trade, he has become the team’s best deep threat with 20+ yard receptions in five different games this season. Even with the team’s injuries on defense, Green Bay should be more than a match for what has been an anemic offense at the best of times for Arizona this year.

Defense

  • The Cardinals defense has been the relative strength of the team, relative meaning that they have not played as poorly as the offense has. They currently rank 19th in total yardage allowed and 26th in points allowed, which become a little more respectable considering their offense’s inability to stay on the field. However, teams run more against Arizona than any other defense in the NFL as opponents typically play from ahead and are looking to run the clock late in games. Also of note was the performance of Philip Rivers and the Chargers last week. He completed a record tying 25 consecutive passes to begin last week’s game against the Cardinals on his way to breaking the single game completion percentage record with 96.6% as the Chargers reeled off 45 unanswered points on the way to a 45-10 victory. If Aaron Rodgers can find a rhythm against this defense and make throws like his touchdown to Davante Adams last week, the opportunity is there for a big performance.
  • Despite their struggles as a whole, there are some elite talents putting in strong performances for the team even in this rebuilding year. At the top of that list is pass rusher Chandler Jones. Following his trade to Arizona from New England, Jones has been an absolute terror defensively, notching double digit sacks in each of his three seasons with the Cardinals including a career high 17 sacks in 2017. At 6’5", 265 lbs. he has an ideal combination of size, length, and speed to create pressure off the edge while also possessing the versatility to drop into coverage and play linebacker as well as he did in the Patriots versatile defensive scheme. With the Packers injuries along the offensive line, it will be important to devote extra protection towards Jones and hold him in check to keep Green Bay’s offense moving in this matchup.
  • It’s a very rare and valuable commodity to have a true shutdown corner who shadows the opposition’s best receiver all over the field. Players like Deion Sanders and Darrelle Revis that can all but erase a receiver from the score sheet come along once or twice in a generation. For me, Arizona’s Patrick Peterson falls into that category and is the best corner in the league today. A rare blend of elite size, speed, fluidity, and ball skills mean he’s not just able to take receivers out of a play, but he can intercept the ball and return it for huge gains the other way. He will be glued to Davante Adams on the outside this weekend, so look for Green Bay to target other receivers or move Adams into the slot at times to get him away from Peterson’s coverage.
Final Thoughts
Crucial Matchup: Packers Safety Josh Jones vs. Arizona Pass Catchers

  • The safety position has been a problem area for the Packers this season and has only gotten shakier with injuries in the secondary and the trading of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Of Green Bay’s current options, I believe that Josh Jones has the best chance to step up and become a starting option down the stretch and in the future. The former second round pick has the combination of size and athleticism to be a versatile safety if given the opportunity and the development of his play recognition and awareness will be paramount in seeing this come to fruition. It will be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has Jones matchup against the likes of David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald in the slot as I expect the Packers defense to stack the box and force the Cardinals to throw against the Packers strong pass rush. If Jones can prove to be a reliable starter for this team, it will be one less area the team will need to address come the offseason as they retool some of the problem areas on the roster.
Flashback
  • These two teams last met in Arizona in the Divisional Round of the 2015 season in one of the most exciting playoff games of the decade. Down late and with the receiving corp devastated due to injury, Aaron Rodgers lead the Packers offense on a last minute drive that included a 4th and long conversion to Jeff Janis and culiminated in a completed Hail Mary to Janis again as time expired to tie the game. Arizona won the coin toss in overtime and gashed the Packers defense with a 75 yard catch and run by Larry Fitzgerald from quarterback Carson Palmer. The Cardinals won the game on a five yard shovel pass to Fitzgerald and handed the Packers their second heartbreaking playoff exit in as many seasons.
Prediction
  • Despite all the struggles the team has faced this season, it’s hard to pick against the Packers against this Cardinals team. Green Bay is still undefeated in Lambeau this season and the Cardinals don’t have the firepower or stalwart defense on paper to put pressure on the Packers for four quarters on the road. What will be important is for the Packers to not just win, but to win well. They need to execute at a high level and decidedly separate themselves from what should be an inferior opponent. If the inconsistency issues don’t rear their ugly head, look for Green Bay to roll on Sunday. Cardinals 14 Packers 31

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