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Three for Three: Packers 2018 Week 15 Scouting Report at Chicago Bears

One of the most interesting aspects of the NFL compared to other sports is the relatively few number of games each year. Seminal moments of dynamic progress or regression are much rarer in the other major team sports compared to football and the fortunes of a team can be completely altered by an unlikely run of play one way or the other. Sports like baseball and basketball shift more gradually in line with runs of hot or cold play over many weeks and sometimes months. Small sample sizes in football mean what we think we know about teams can shift rapidly. In short, we can still be surprised by teams at this late stage of the season.

Looking at last week’s results and comparing them to our perceptions of teams even less than a month ago, there are some startling differences from then to now. The league’s upper echelon looks vulnerable as the likes of the Patriots and Steelers shockingly dropped games to the Dolphins and Raiders respectively. The Chiefs and Saints were both pushed at times in their matchups, particularly in the Chiefs case as the Ravens pushed them into overtime on the road in Kansas City. The Rams vaunted offense looked outmatched as the Bears put the league on notice with a dominant win over one of the league’s very best. What seemed like a rock solid, top tier of championship caliber teams a month ago has become incredibly blurred in recent weeks. The gap is closing at the top and it bodes well for an exciting stretch run and playoffs.

The upheaval in the league’s hierarchy extends down into the middle tier teams as well. The Panthers, who looked like one of the favorites for a wildcard berth a month ago, have now dropped five straight games and will need to scrap with a number of other teams for the last playoff spot in the NFC. Contrastly, the Cowboys looked largely underwhelming before the trade deadline and playoff aspirations seemed like a lofty goal. Since the arrival of receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders helping unlock their offense and the emergence of a stout defensive unit have resulted in Dallas reeling off five consecutive victories and wresting firm control of the NFC East away from their rivals. There is even a strong possibility that the second best team in the AFC could end up as a wildcard team as the Chiefs and Chargers both currently look like the best teams in that conference. These two teams will have squared off on Thursday night by the time of this publishing with a division title and first round bye potentially in the balance.

This dynamic of the middling teams stepping up and meeting the top teams in contention as they lose a little momentum sets the stage for one of the more competitive championship runs in recent memory. No team is unbeatable and though there is still a separation between the top teams and those just behind, seemingly every team has some sort of weakness or flaw that can be exploited by another team on the right day. Weather will increasingly become an issue, making home field advantage even more important for teams more acclimated to warm climates or playing indoors.

These final few weeks of the regular season will serve to answer many of these questions and solidify the playoff picture. Make no mistake though: as soon as the playoffs begin, all bets are off and anything can happen. Buckle up.

Offense
  • It seems an eternity ago that Rodgers and the Packers produced their miracle comeback against the Bears on Sunday night in week one and the trajectories of both teams have shifted dramatically in that time. Green Bay has struggled regularly throughout this season while Chicago has seized control of the division and thrown themselves firmly into title contention in the NFC. On offense, a good deal of their success can be attributed to the growth of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky from his rookie to sophomore seasons. His numbers have improved across the board this year and his running ability in particular causes issues for opposing defenses. However, Trubisky has been suffering from a shoulder injury the past month which has compounded some of his accuracy issues. He has five interceptions in his last two starts including a few head scratching misses. The Bears defense is championship quality, but they will only go as far as their young quarterback allows them to. Trubisky’s ability to keep their offense in positive positions and not turnover possession will be key in determining Chicago’s chances as they push into the playoffs.
  • Under head coach Matt Nagy’s direction, the Bears offense has become one of the more creative units in the league. This offense employs a number of exotic personnel packages and formations mixed in with many of the same concepts that helped vault him to a head coaching job from his previous post with Andy Reid and the explosive Chiefs offense. Nagy’s willingness to mix things up and adapt to new concepts makes Chicago’s offense extremely versatile and causes problems for defensive coaches in preparing for them. In particular, the team has had great success during their opening script of 15 to 20 plays including an opening drive touchdown in their previous matchup against Green Bay. The Packers will need to be prepared defensively for what Nagy and company will have cooked up for them this Sunday.
  • Perhaps no player has benefited more from Nagy’s play calling than shifty running back Tarik Cohen. Though he has already surpassed his rushing totals from a year ago, he has been invaluable as a receiver for this Bears attack. He is a matchup nightmare for linebackers and safeties and necessitates attention from cornerbacks to be defended properly. Though he hasn’t matched his first two seasons, Jordan Howard still fills in as the power runner on this team and could find success against the Packers weakened defensive line. Against the Rams dominating front, Howard produced his first hundred yard rushing performance and could feature more heavily as the temperature drops in Chicago.
Defense
  • In a year where offenses have ruled the league, elite defensive units have been in short supply. With all due respect to the Ravens and Cowboys strong defenses, Chicago’s defense under Vic Fangio has been nothing short of outstanding this year. Elite against both the run and the pass, this unit creates more matchup problems and big plays than any other defense in the league. Their 34 forced turnovers and six defensive touchdowns both solidly lead the NFL and give them the ability to help carry games on nights where the offense struggles to move the ball as they demonstrated against the Rams this past week. More than any other contender this year, Chicago brings legitimate game changing defense to the table and has the potential to shut down the league’s elite offenses.
  • When the Bears traded for Khalil Mack before the season, much of the speculation was about how far he could push this unit forward into elite territory. His play and this defense as a whole has been nothing short of exceptional made the price they paid for him look like a bargain in hindsight. There is arguably no edge rusher in the game with a more elite combination of speed, power, and technique and he has been almost unblockable one on one this season. His ability to command double and sometimes triple teams in pass protection frees up his teammates to make plays as well and at times, Mack can still get to the quarterback despite the extra attention. The race between him and Aaron Donald for Defensive Player of the Year will be highly contested and if it weren’t entirely weighted towards quarterbacks and offensive players, there would be a legitimate argument for both to win MVP.
  • As much as Mack’s arrival has propelled this defense into the stratosphere, the emergence of free safety Eddie Jackson has been nothing short of a revelation. Jackson functions as the deep safety in Fangio’s defense, giving the Bears corners the ability to jam and play more aggressively underneath knowing that he can back them up deep. His exceptional range, play recognition, and ball skills have helped him notch five interceptions and 13 passes defended as he has regularly made plays on the back end. Though Rodgers set the record for most consecutive passes without an interception last week, that streak could be put in jeopardy against the Bears fierce pass rush and Jackson ball hawking in the secondary.
Final Thoughts

Crucial Matchup: Receiver Randall Cobb vs. Bears Nickel Corner
  • With the Bears elite pass rush lining up against a depleted Packers offensive line, it will be important for Green Bay to mitigate their impact to compete in this game. One way to do this is to find success running the ball, but the more likely possibility is throwing the ball to quick developing underneath routes and not risking drive killing sacks or turnovers. Randall Cobb had his best game of the season by far in the first game against Chicago and found success against Atlanta last week despite his struggles with consistency and injury this year. The Bears outstanding slot corner Bryce Callahan will be out with injury this week, leaving Cobb in a potentially favorable matchup against backup Sherrick McManis. For Green Bay to stand a chance this week, keeping Chicago’s aggressive defense off-balance will have to be a priority and Cobb will go a long way in determining their success or failure in that regard.
Flashback
  • In arguably their biggest win of the season to date, Aaron Rodgers returned from a serious knee injury in the first half to help lead an iconic comeback for the Packers in their home opener. His three fourth quarter touchdown passes including a long catch and run by Randall Cobb to give Green Bay the lead late. Despite a late, critical penalty by linebacker Clay Matthews, the Packers defense held firm in the second half and ultimately sealed the win for Green Bay 24-23 in what will be remembered as an iconic matchup in the NFL’s oldest rivalry.

Prediction

  • Though Green Bay isn’t technically eliminated from playoff contention, their season is most likely over at this point. The focus of the team now shifts from contending for a title this year to figuring out what they have moving forward and possibly playing spoiler in the last weeks of the season. The Bears are the last playoff team the Packers are going to play this year and for interim coach Joe Philbin, notching a win against the likely division winner and the team’s biggest rival would be a huge feather in his cap towards being named the permanent head coaching position. Anything is possible and rivalry games are usually closer than might be expected, but it’s hard to see Green Bay coming away with a win this week. The Bears defense is smothering and despite struggling last week, Trubisky and the offense should be able to find enough scoring to secure a victory at home. Rodgers gives the team a puncher’s chance, but I’m picking the Bears to keep rolling this week. Packers 17 Bears 23

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