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Three for Three: Packers 2018 Week 3 Scouting Report at Washington

I struggle to remember a two week period where the axiom "On Any Given Sunday" has held so true as the first two weeks of this season. The state of Florida is undefeated, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes have played at MVP levels, and Browns have been competitive - against good teams! (Note: The Browns have since won their Thursday night matchup against the Jets, their first win in almost two years. All hail Baker Mayfield). The Lions are- well they’re still the Lions. Though it’s nice to have some things stay the same.

Riding shotgun on this wild roller coaster through two weeks are the Packers. I definitely had tame expectations coming up against Minnesota following week one’s thriller; keep Rodgers healthy, play well, and try not to get run over by one of football’s best teams. What we saw instead was another nail biter of a game with a huge fourth quarter comeback, but with the Packers in the position of trying to hold on. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ receivers played an absolutely monster game and came back from a seemingly hopeless position. Watching Daniel Carlson cement the third most tragic kicking performance in Vikings history and the game ending in a tie was almost too bizarre for words (and highly satisfying to boot).

And honestly, as much as it stings to have a team like the Vikings on the ropes and not be able to close the deal, I’m decently happy with the end result. I was impressed by the Packers performance as a team and believe this group will only grow stronger as the season progresses. Many pundits and fans have focused on the referees and attributed the game’s result to them. Ultimately though, officiating is an exercise in subjectivity and while some of the officiating was deeply frustrating as a fan, it is part of the game and cannot be controlled. It can only be accounted and adapted for.

My big complaint for the game concerns the Packers coaching staff and their late game situational management. After Ha Ha Clinton-Dix’s drive killing interception in the fourth quarter set the Packers offense up in Vikings territory with the lead and time dwindling, the Packers were in ideal position to try and put the game to bed. However, instead of running the ball and forcing Minnesota to use their remaining timeouts to save clock, Coach McCarthy and offensive coordinator Joe Philbin dialed up two end zone shots from Rodgers that fell incomplete and stopped the clock from running.

Granted, with how hot the Vikings offense was playing and the talent that the Packers have passing the ball, it’s arguable that going for the win made sense in that situation. This wouldn’t even be a discussion if the Packers had scored on the drive and the coaching staff would be lauded for not going conservative and trusting the offense to go put the game away. Chewing clock, going up by eight points, and forcing the Vikings offense under the gun to deliver a scoring drive is how I would have played it from here in my armchair. That’s why I’m not paid the big bucks to make those decisions I suppose.

Here’s this week’s scouting report for traveling to D.C. to face Washington.

Offense

  • Green Bay moves from Washington’s former starting quarterback a week ago in Cousins to Alex Smith this week in his first year under head coach Jay Gruden. Many headlines coming into the week will surround the connection between Smith and Rodgers as the former was drafted first overall ahead of the latter in the 2005 draft. However, from a gameplay perspective, Alex Smith brings a lot of similar qualities to the table as his predecessor did in Washington. He has made a career out of making smart plays, limiting mistakes and turnovers, and keeping the chains moving on offense. He has a knack for delivering the ball under pressure, finding his checkdowns consistently or extending the play with his legs and rushing when necessary. Though consistently labeled as a "game manager" through his career, Smith is a quarterback who will play to and even slightly elevate the talent of the offense around him, but struggles to carry the game on his own. However, he is certainly not to be underestimated.
  • Over the past half decade in Washington, the consistent strength of their offense has been their strong play along the offensive line. Ahead of the 2018 season, the analytics gurus at Pro Football Focus predicted that Washington would have the 12th best offensive line in the NFL this year. Left tackle Trent Williams is one of the best blindside protectors in football while also being a mauler at the point of attack in the runnning game. However, he has been dealing with nagging injuries to start the year, so his performance might be more haggered than usual. His bookend is Morgan Moses at right tackle, a solid pass protector who uses his massive 6’6", 335 lbs. frame to pave the way on the ground for Washington’s runners. Teaming up with Washington’s titanic pair of tackles is Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff anchoring the inside. The former top five selection from Iowa has quickly become one of the game’s best guards and even competed for the starting right tackle position his rookie year before shifting inside. Though this unit doesn’t have the top to bottom star power that division rivals Philadelphia and Dallas possess, they are still a force to be reckoned with.
  • Coming into the year, the hype around Washington’s backfield centered on rookie running back Derrius Guice out of LSU as he looked set to take over the starting position. However, after his unfortunate ACL tear in the preseason and a number of other minor injuries effecting their tailbacks, Washington was forced to look for outside help at the position, signing aging star Adrian Peterson. The former MVP and Viking has stepped into the early down role in Jay Gruden’s offense, having strong success against a week Cardinals team in week one before struggling a week ago against Indianapolis. He has been a solid, if unspectacular contributor on the ground for Washington, accumulating 116 yards through two game, but also contributing 100 receiving yards mostly bolstered by a 52 yard reception against Arizona. However, the real star catching out of the backfield has been his teammate, Chris Thompson. Still recovering from a broken leg suffered in the second half of last season, Thompson has acted as Alex Smith’s most reliable target on offense. He has 19 receptions including 13 a week ago for 155 yards while also chipping in on the ground. He looks to be highly involved in the offense moving forward and someone the Packers defense has to keep track of.

Defense

  • The main story for Washington a year ago was how utterly atrocious they played against the run. Their unit ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed a year ago while ranking in the top half of the league against the pass. This is the place to exploit them defensively, especially with the return of running back Aaron Jones from his suspension to start the year for Green Bay. Though the Packers will always look to throw the ball with Aaron Rodgers under center and the bevy of pass catchers they have available, it will benefit the offense this week to ease that load a bit and look to establish the run against a defense so vulnerable in that department. This could be especially important as Rodgers is still playing through an injury and has come under a ton of pressure so far this season.
  • The clear strength of Washington’s defense is their pair of strong pass rushers, outside linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith. Smith has been a solid contributor in his time in Washington, accumulating 8 sacks a year ago while typically rushing from the offense’s left side. However, the real standout is Kerrigan, who has consistently racked up close to double digit sack totals throughout his career, though still remains largely overlooked when discussing the outstanding pass rushers in the game today. The two pair together to create pressure off the edge and make it untenable for an offensive line to overcommit to one or the other in pass protection. Though strong, the Packers have already faced two of the strongest pass rushing defenses in the NFL to start the year, so they should be more than up to the challenge Washington presents.
  • If there’s a bonafide star player on Washington’s defense, it is probably star cornerback Josh Norman. He has been one of the league’s most outstanding cover men since breaking out with the Panthers in 2015. Norman doesn’t shadow the opposing team’s best receiver like some corners do, playing most of his snaps to the quarterback’s right in the left cornerback role. This means the Packers can shift their personnel around on offense to free up Davante Adams for favorable matchups while leaving other receivers like Geronimo Allison to fend for themselves on an island against Norman. Also worth noting was the play of Washington safety D.J. Swearinger a week ago as he picked off Andrew Luck twice in a losing effort. If Washington’s pass rush is able to get pressure and disrupt passing lanes as they did a week ago, the secondary is more than able to take advantage generating turnovers.


Final Thoughts

Crucial Matchup: Jordan Reed vs. Packers Secondary


  • Though talented, the questionable group for Washington coming into the year is in their stable of pass catchers. Young receivers Josh Doctson and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson are athletic, but largely unproven. Slot receiver Jamison Crowder is effective, but also recovering from injury a year ago. However, the true matchup nightmare this group possesses is in star receiving tight end Jordan Reed. Though he has battled injuries throughout his career thus far, he is one of the NFL’s most explosive receivers when healthy. Too fast for most linebackers and too big for corners, look for Green Bay to largely bracket him in coverage, providing help underneath and over the top until one of Washington’s other receivers proves they can win their matchup consistently. Second year cornerback Kevin King likely provides the best one on one matchup against Reed with his long reach and 6’3" frame if the defense chooses that strategy.


Flashback

  • The last time Washington and Green Bay clashed was in late 2016, a 42-24 loss in Washington for the Packers. However, it was after this game that Aaron Rodgers famously made his "Run the Table" declaration and helped lead the Packers on a deep playoff run despite their rough start to the year. Also of note, the Packers played in Washington again during the playoffs the year before, coming away with a strong 35-18 victory over Kirk Cousins and company.

Prediction

  • On paper, the Packers should be able to handle what Washington has to offer and come away with a victory. However, this contest reeks of a potential trap game on the schedule given the tough opposition they’ve faced to start the year and this being their road opener. Washington will look to rebound from a largely poor showing a week ago and prove they can compete with the stronger teams in the conference at large, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang around more than people might think. That said, I think the Packers have too much momentum and cause too many potential matchup problems for Washington to emerge victorious on the day. Green Bay 31 Washington 20

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