clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

APC 2019 Divisional Playoff Picks: Chargers are the only upset pick

New, comments

We’re taking the chalk in three of the four games this weekend, predicting a single upset in Foxboro.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

On the eve of the NFL’s Divisional Playoff weekend, it’s time to break down the four games taking place across the league in the next two days. As has been the case all season, 13 APC writers provided our picks for who will advance to the conference championship games next Sunday. Let’s take a look.

Colts vs. Chiefs

The Saturday afternoon game is an interesting one — both teams have effective offenses led by a great quarterback, one great receiver, and a good or great tight end. However, Indianapolis has an emergent defense, while the Chiefs...well, they just prefer to outscore everyone.

The last postseason meeting between these two teams ended in heartbreak for Kansas City, who jumped out to a 38-10 lead but gave it away to lose 45-44. The thing is, the Chiefs’ offense is so dominant that they still finished tops in the NFL in DVOA despite being 26th on defense (their second-ranked special teams helped too, though). We think that’s too much for the Colts to overcome, though the margin here is a bit inflated as many of the 12 writers who picked KC expressed some reservations about their pick.

APC pick: Chiefs (12-1)

Cowboys vs. Rams

The Rams are basically the Chiefs, with a less-explosive passing offense and a more respectable defense against both the run and pass. Still, they can run up the score on just about anybody.

This game being at the Coliseum clinched the picks for most of APC. The Cowboys’ home/road splits are stark this year: Dallas has scored more than 22 points on the road just twice all year, and more than 30 just once (in week 17 against a hapless Giants team). The Rams, meanwhile, were held under 30 at home twice, by the Eagles in week 15 and the Packers (!!!!) in week eight.

APC pick: Rams (11-2)

Chargers vs. Patriots

Home-field be damned, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady be damned, Philip Rivers’ teams being 0-7 against the Patriots be damned. We’re picking the Chargers because, in short, they’re a better team than the Pats this year.

They had a better record (12-4) than the 11-5 Pats. Rivers’ numbers are better than Brady’s. Melvin Gordon is really, really good (remember when there were questions about him as a receiver coming out of Wisconsin?). And it’s fun to watch big ol’ Antonio Gates rumble down the field with the ball in his hands.

APC pick: Chargers (8-5)

Eagles vs. Saints

New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams this season 48-7. Sure, Nick Foles is on the playoff war path again, but this isn’t last year’s Eagles defense — and they would need it to be to have any real chance of slowing down the Saints once their starters shake off the rust from their two-week layoff.

We’re picking New Orleans this week, and we don’t think it will be particularly close.

APC pick: Saints (13-0)


Divisional Round Picks

Game Tex Jason Peter Kris Bob Jon M Jordan Matub Mike Paul Shawn Wendi Zach APC Pick
Game Tex Jason Peter Kris Bob Jon M Jordan Matub Mike Paul Shawn Wendi Zach APC Pick
IND @ KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC IND KC KC KC KC (12-1)
DAL @ LAR LAR LAR LAR LAR LAR DAL LAR LAR LAR DAL LAR LAR LAR LAR (11-2)
LAC @ NE LAC LAC LAC NE LAC LAC LAC LAC NE NE NE NE LAC LAC (8-5)
PHI @ NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO (13-0)