The Green Bay Packers haven’t just been good on offense over the first four weeks of the season; they have been on an absolute tear.
The Packers have put up over 1,700 yards of offense at 6.8 yards per play and have averaged 38 points per game. Because of this stellar offensive showing, the Packers’ key players have been towards the top of fantasy point leader boards in PPR points. Aaron Rodgers is sixth among QBs, Aaron Jones is RB2, Davante Adams is averaging 23 PPG — although he missed the last two — Marquez Valdes-Scantling is 46th, and Robert Tonyan is TE1. And all this comes with limited snaps for their first three 2020 NFL Draft picks.
Not only are the points there for fantasy players, but the numbers aren’t boosted by one blow up game—the efficiency numbers are there for these key players as well. Aaron Rodgers is first in QBR, second in DYAR, and first in DVOA among QBs. Aaron Jones is 14th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA. Before injury, Allen Lazard was first in both DYAR and DVOA. Currently, he’s still fourth and third, despite missing last week’s game.
The Packers also boast the #4 offensive line, according to Football Outsiders, despite several line reshuffles. Credit to Corey Linsley who has played the most snaps in this season of any lineman and has yet to give up a pressure.
Right now, fantasy football players are probably asking yourselves if you should sell high on these players in case the scoring efficiency doesn’t hold up. This could be something to concern yourself with because in two or three weeks’ time, we might be wondering if the Packers just dominated some of the worst teams in the league in the Vikings, Lions, Saints, and Falcons. I’m not saying those teams are bad, but I’m not not saying it.
Aaron Jones is an easy keep in redraft leagues because you’re not going to get anyone better back. Saquon Barkley is done for the year and last year’s RB1, Christian McCaffrey, is sidelined for a good amount of time with an ankle injury. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Packers face a handful of difficult run defenses going forward, but overall their run defense schedule gets easier. The Buccaneers, 49ers, Jaguars, and Eagles are all “hard” run defenses, but only the Bucs are in the top five of most difficult run defenses. The Niners have also had a slew of injuries, so it’s not likely that their defense improves. In Weeks 14-16 — otherwise known as the fantasy football playoffs — the Packers play the 27th, 11th, and 23rd ranked run defenses in the Lions, Panthers, and Titans. And the Panthers might only be ranked that high because why run the ball against them when you can throw it with ease, another plus for the pass catching Jones.
And if you trade Jones in dynasty, be sure to get a king’s ransom for him.
The stretch of pass defenses looks similar for the Packers. The Bucs provide a bit of a challenge, but they also have games against the Colts and Bears who are second and fifth in Pass Efficiency Defense, according to Sharp Football Stats. The Lions and Panthers are soft passing defenses for the Packers in Weeks 14 and 15, while the Titans could provide a championship week challenge.
Based on the schedule and efficiency numbers, I’m keeping Rodgers and along with Adams and MVS, because all three have proven they can produce with the opportunities Matt LaFleur’s offense has given them. Adams will continue to be Adams once he takes the field again and MVS is a solid flex streaming option who will greatly benefit from Adams’ return.
With Lazard gone for an extended period of time, you might want to consider trading him to someone willing to wait until he gets back on the field — if that happens at all this season. A core muscle injury plus surgery can be a difficult thing to gauge.
In the meantime, I hope you were able to grab Robert Tonyan in the draft or off waivers. There was buzz in the offseason leading up to the season that Tonyan would be the TE1 in Green Bay, but many thought we would see a Jace Sternberger breakout. Tonyan has plenty of skill and this offense is built in such a way that Big Bob can continue to eat against defenders who can’t match up with him. He’s number one among TEs in DVOA, DYAR, and touchdowns. He also has 126 more Effective Yards than actual yards which means he’s playing better than his stats would indicate and there could be more fantasy points for him to pick up.