Last week wasn’t great for the Green Bay Packers. If you’re like me, you were having nightmarish flashbacks to when the Packers went to Los Angeles last season and when they played San Francisco. Twice.
After a dominant start to the season, one would expect that the Packers wouldn’t slip up so terribly. What I think we learned from this game is that Tyler Ervin plays a crucial role as a skeleton key for this offense, offensive line injuries—like any team—can derail play, and big time defensive players have yet to arrive this season.
Additionally, on the first pick-six, we saw Aaron Rodgers try to get Davante Adams going after the receiver had missed the past couple games. It made sense since they were boasting a 10-0 lead up until Rodgers telegraphed that out route from the snap.
Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and AJ Dillon
This trio of backs could all be in for a great day against the Texans and last week should be seen more as the outlier on the season. I list all three because Aaron Jones is dealing with a calf strain this week. Should he not be able to go, Williams and Dillon should slot in comfortable against an anemic Texans run defense.
Houston currently ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA. Last week, the Packers had to face the Buccaneers who are allowing the least rushing yards per game (64.3 YPG), but this week they get the team that is allowing the most rushing yards per game (177.5 YPG). They’re allowing the third most yards overall. So if the Packers don’t eat this week, then I would start to panic (not this week like various pundits have).
It’s hard to say who Adams will see more of in this game: Bradley Roby or Vernon Hargreaves III. Either way, Adams should be a matchup win. After getting his legs back underneath him, they should have Adams ready to go by scheming him open rather than force feeding the ball into his hands like it’s the Mike McCarthy era all over again. Houston’s strength doesn’t exactly lay in pass defense either. They’re 20th in Pass DEF DVOA and are allowing the 13th most passing yards per game (246.5 YPG). The only thing that’s stopping Adams from having a truly great day is if Green Bay is able to run it with ease against the Texans because why throw it when you can run.
Tonyan (pronounced: “Tun”yan, apparently) took a back seat in the offense last week as he was limited by an ankle injury and the Bucs just playing really soundly. He was a limited participant in the last practice before the game after logging two consecutive DNP’s throughout this week.
Last week, backup TE Anthony Firkser logged 25.3 PPR fantasy points against Houston. Against the Steelers, they allowed 16.2 fantasy points to Eric Ebron, and Travis Kelce logged 17 points in Week 1. The Ravens, Vikings, and Jaguars were teams that weren’t able to have double-digit scoring TEs, so maybe it’s a 50/50 shot the Packers do. Tonyan has been more efficient than Mark Andrews and the Vikings and Jaguars TE duos, though, and if he plays (he’s questionable also), he should be a solid option.