Leading up to the 2020 season, it feels like a good idea to prepare as much as possible on the value players have within the fantasy landscape. We’ll take a look at several Green Bay Packers players to determine if their value may be too high this season or a potential steal as you start your fantasy drafts.
Despite being celebrated as a top-five wide receiver, Davante Adams had a relatively rough season in 2019. After balling out to WR2 in PPR leagues in 2018, missing a month with turf toe led him to finish as WR23.
Adams still managed to get 127 targets last year, which bodes well for this season as head coach Matt LaFleur gears the offense towards more 12-personnel. The shift to focusing on moving the offense through the running game doesn’t mean they’re only going to pound the rock. The New England Patriots with Rob Gronkowski and the San Francisco 49ers offense of last year achieved well-balanced running and passing games, despite wanting big bodies on the field.
With these formations, defensive coordinators are going to have to decide if they want to match two tight end sets with bigger players – which would open up Adams to more one-on-one matchups – or keep smaller nickel and dime personnel on the field which makes them more vulnerable to the run game. The Packers WR1 and WR2 should be able to exploit good matchups and Adams’ ability to lineup in the slot will make this offense a true jigsaw puzzle to solve.
Adams will have to be ready for it, though. Last season, he finished 43rd in DVOA and 31st in DYAR, so it wasn’t always smooth sailing when Adams took the field. Part of this was integrating a new offense and another being the risk-averse play of Aaron Rodgers. Both can improve this season.
An area Adams doesn’t need too much work on is in the red zone – an obviously key part of putting up fantasy points. He was targeted 18 times in the RZ last season, which led to 12 catches and three TDs. Should the 12 personnel cause 8-man boxes in the red zone, Adams will continue being Pro Football Focus’ number one graded WR in that area.
Currently, Adams is the second WR going off fantasy boards behind Michael Thomas at 8th overall. DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill have ADPs right after Adams, but neither should have the same opportunities as Adams with Hopkins in a heavy four-WR set offense and Hill being one of many weapons in the Kansas City Chiefs offense.
Fear not taking Adams that high or a few spots higher. His fantasy floor should be relatively high, but being a top-five WR in PPR should be easy.