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DraftKings has released their updated MVP odds for the 2021 NFL season, and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is one of nine players who are firmly in the mix for the award. The sportsbook has given nine quarterbacks between an 18 percent (+450) and a 5 percent (+1800) implied probability to win the award, including Rodgers (+1200, 8 percent), despite his uncharacteristically poor game against the New Orleans Saints to start the season.
Below are DraftKing’s odds for what they consider to be the nine most-likely players to win MVP this year, including their raw passing stats and their adjusted net yards per attempt for the season:
MVP Odds (10/13/2021)
| Quarterback | MVP Odds | ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK | SK YDS | ANY/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | MVP Odds | ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK | SK YDS | ANY/A |
| Josh Allen | +450 | 183 | 1370 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 7.93 |
| Kyler Murray | +500 | 165 | 1512 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 8.26 |
| Dak Prescott | +700 | 165 | 1368 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 50 | 8.34 |
| Justin Herbert | +700 | 207 | 1576 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 61 | 7.59 |
| Tom Brady | +800 | 225 | 1767 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 61 | 8.19 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1000 | 167 | 1519 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 60 | 8.24 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1000 | 172 | 1587 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 9.41 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1200 | 163 | 1241 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 70 | 7.14 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +1800 | 195 | 1490 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 7.48 |
For what it’s worth, over the past four games Rodgers has posted an ANY/A of 8.36, higher than any season-long effort of a 2021 NFL quarterback not named Russell Wilson, who recently had surgery on his finger, and Matthew Stafford. An ANY/A of 8.36 would rank as Rodgers’ fourth-best season, in terms of raw passing numbers, behind only 2011, 2014, and 2020, his MVP campaigns.
Interestingly enough, the only player to separate Rodgers (eighth) and wide receiver Davante Adams (tied for tenth) on the odds ticket is former NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. Adams (+5000, 2 percent implied probability) is actually the highest-ranked non-quarterback in MVP odds at this point in the season, above running backs Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. The next closest receivers (Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Cooper Kupp) have odds that are twice as long as Adams’ chances to win the award.
The fact that Adams is tied for tenth in MVP odds tells us both 1) how good of a season he’s had and 2) how steep the dropoff is after the top nine contenders for the award. In theory, this should be a hint that Adams is a runaway favorite to be named First-Team All-Pro at the receiver position when 2021 voting starts. Despite the fact that Adams is coming off of his first 200-yard game of his career, no receiver has ever won the Associated Press’ MVP and only Jerry Rice has won the Pro Football Writers of America’s MVP, though it came during a strike-shortened 1987 season.
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