According to the odds posted by DraftKings today, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has moved up to the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. Nearly two weeks ago, Rodgers, Tom Brady and Kyler Murray were the only players who had odds shorter than +1000 to win the award, but after Murray’s Cardinals lost to the then one-win Detroit Lions on Sunday, spoiling their chances to win the top seed in the NFC, Murray has fallen significantly in the race.
At the moment, it seems to be a race between Rodgers (+125, 44 percent implied probability) and Brady (+175, 36 percent implied probability) for the award with the cluster of Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Cooper Kupp, Dak Prescott and Murray behind them in the distance. To put Murray’s drop into perspective, his +750 odds earlier this month gave him nearly five times the chance to win the award than his +4000 odds do right now. Meanwhile, Rodgers has risen from +600 to +125, giving him four times the chance to win the award since the last time we checked up on the race.
Much of this has to do with not only Murray’s upset loss to the Lions, but also Brady’s shutout loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football, when he threw 48 passes for 214 yards and an interception to go along with four sacks and a QBR of 18.5. In large part due to those games, the Packers now control their playoff destiny as the one seed in the NFC with FiveThirtyEight giving the team a league-leading 78 percent chance to earn a one seed this postseason along with a league-tying 23 precent chance to win the Super Bowl along with the AFC’s Chiefs.
The award, generally, has gone to quarterbacks since the league has progressively made the NFL a more passing-friendly form of football since 2004. Above are the comparisons of quarterbacks who rank top-10 in DraftKing’s MVP race so far in 2021. As far as the “advanced” stats go, Rodgers ranks first in AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt) and passer rating while Stafford ranks first in QBR and ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt.)