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Aaron Rodgers has risen to the betting favorite for MVP

The race seems to be down to Rodgers and Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

According to the odds posted by DraftKings today, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has moved up to the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. Nearly two weeks ago, Rodgers, Tom Brady and Kyler Murray were the only players who had odds shorter than +1000 to win the award, but after Murray’s Cardinals lost to the then one-win Detroit Lions on Sunday, spoiling their chances to win the top seed in the NFC, Murray has fallen significantly in the race.

At the moment, it seems to be a race between Rodgers (+125, 44 percent implied probability) and Brady (+175, 36 percent implied probability) for the award with the cluster of Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Cooper Kupp, Dak Prescott and Murray behind them in the distance. To put Murray’s drop into perspective, his +750 odds earlier this month gave him nearly five times the chance to win the award than his +4000 odds do right now. Meanwhile, Rodgers has risen from +600 to +125, giving him four times the chance to win the award since the last time we checked up on the race.

MVP Race

Rank Player Odds Implied Probability
Rank Player Odds Implied Probability
1 Aaron Rodgers +125 44%
2 Tom Brady +175 36%
t3 Matthew Stafford +1000 9%
t3 Jonathan Taylor +1000 9%
t3 Patrick Mahomes +1000 9%
6 Josh Allen +1600 6%
7 Justin Herbert +2500 4%
t8 Cooper Kupp +4000 2%
t8 Dak Prescott +4000 2%
t8 Kyler Murray +4000 2%

Much of this has to do with not only Murray’s upset loss to the Lions, but also Brady’s shutout loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football, when he threw 48 passes for 214 yards and an interception to go along with four sacks and a QBR of 18.5. In large part due to those games, the Packers now control their playoff destiny as the one seed in the NFC with FiveThirtyEight giving the team a league-leading 78 percent chance to earn a one seed this postseason along with a league-tying 23 precent chance to win the Super Bowl along with the AFC’s Chiefs.

QB Comparison

Odds Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Sk Yds AY/A Rate QBR ANY/A
Odds Player Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Sk Yds AY/A Rate QBR ANY/A
+125 Aaron Rodgers 299 441 67.8 3487 30 4 27 180 8.9 110.4 66.9 7.96
+175 Tom Brady 404 602 67.1 4348 36 11 20 137 7.6 100.4 64 7.13
+1000 Matthew Stafford 315 468 67.3 3898 33 9 20 162 8.9 108.4 67.4 8.18
+1000 Patrick Mahomes 360 549 65.6 4052 30 13 25 127 7.4 95.8 58.4 6.86
+1600 Josh Allen 344 528 65.2 3734 31 12 26 164 7.2 95.9 57.7 6.59
+2500 Justin Herbert 360 542 66.4 4058 32 12 27 178 7.7 99.1 66.2 6.99
+4000 Kyler Murray 252 361 69.8 3039 20 10 25 219 8.3 102.3 55.8 7.18
+4000 Dak Prescott 337 492 68.5 3598 25 10 25 131 7.4 98.1 47.5 6.8

The award, generally, has gone to quarterbacks since the league has progressively made the NFL a more passing-friendly form of football since 2004. Above are the comparisons of quarterbacks who rank top-10 in DraftKing’s MVP race so far in 2021. As far as the “advanced” stats go, Rodgers ranks first in AY/A (adjusted yards per attempt) and passer rating while Stafford ranks first in QBR and ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt.)