Randall Cobb being back in Green Bay is great for morale and for the fans that loved him during his time with the Packers, but for fantasy purposes, one must be cautious about pouncing on Cobb stock this season.
Cobb will be just 31 years old in a few weeks and came into the league as a young player, but he hasn’t played a full season of 16 games since 2015. He’s played 15 games twice since then—with Green Bay and with Dallas—but he ended those seasons as fantasy football’s WR34 and 44, respectively. Those are fine placements, but not great.
According to Fantasy Pros, Cobb is going all the way down at WR67 in current drafts, which really isn’t all that bad for a guy that QB1 demanded be on the roster this year. He’s right above players like rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sterling Shepard, and fellow Packer Allen Lazard.
In Houston last year, Cobb certainly had a few weeks where he was worthy of a spot start in the flex position, posting double-digit PPR points in five of 10 games he played and north of 17 in two of those. In Dallas the year prior, Cobb started off slowly, but after a Week 8 bye that season, Cobb averaged 11.65 PPR points per game. Which—again—is certainly fine.
A key aspect to look at when assessing Cobb’s value is that he’s played on three different teams in the past three seasons. In those three seasons, he finished as the PPR WR75, WR44, and WR83. So, while he’s made some spot starts during that time, a lack of durability and good offenses limited his upside.
Both of those things could be fixed for Cobb this season. Not since 2014 has he played in an offense as good as LaFleur’s Packers offense has been the past two seasons. Additionally, the Packers drafted a mentee of Cobb’s in Amari Rodgers to fill the exact role that Cobb would play within this kind of offense, so keeping Cobb fresh might be easier than when he was relied on to be an every-down WR2.
If healthy, Cobb can certainly exceed that WR67 average draft position he has now and be closer to the WR34-44 he’s been in the past when playing 15 games. The offense—and home cooking—for Cobb could also be exactly what he needs to dominate from the slot. That’s a lot of projection, though, and his draft range is right around where you might want to look at players with higher, unrealized potential.
And the Kentucky product certainly won’t hurt Davante Adams’ stock. He’s still going to get his and Aaron Rodgers still trusts him as much as Jake Kumerow. I’d be worried about stock in Amari Rodgers, Lazard, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling more than anything. Cobb should definitely eat into their targets so keep your ears to the ground on how reps are being divided up during training camp.
Cobb is the kind of player that you don’t reach for this season in redraft leagues and you don’t buy high on in dynasty leagues. Make sure he falls to you in the later rounds and don’t reach. For trading, try to buy low and see if someone is just willing to get anything for him after two years of being on and off waivers—as evidenced by his 78 percent roster percentage in Sleeper leagues.