APC NFL Picks, Week 8: Can Packers overcome double-digit spread in Buffalo?

Only twice before in the Aaron Rodgers era have the Green Bay Packers been double-digit underdogs. Not surprisingly, both of those games were ones that Rodgers missed with injuries. That means that Sunday’s tilt with the Buffalo Bills will be the first time that Rodgers will start a game as this big of an underdog.

The other two games came in 2010 and 2017. In the first such game, Rodgers was ruled out for a road game against the New England Patriots with a concussion, and Matt Flynn got the start. The 2017 game was during Rodgers’ absence with a broken collarbone, and Brett Hundley was the quarterback as the Packers visited the Pittsburgh Steelers. In both cases, the Packers were 14-point underdogs; in both cases, the Packers came up short and lost the game; but in both cases, the team was far more competitive than expected and easily covered the spread.

The 2010 Patriots game ended in a 31-27 score; the Steelers contest in 2017 featured nearly the same score, as Pittsburgh won 31-28.

In fact, the biggest underdog point spread that Rodgers has faced as a starter came in 2018. Playing in LA, the Packers were 7.5-point dogs to the Rams but lost by just two in a 29-27 game that was marred by Ty Montgomery’s untimely kickoff return fumble.

So how will this year’s Packers team respond to a spread that shows them little respect against a top AFC team on the road and in prime time? Currently, the Packers are 11-point underdogs, according to DraftKings. Will the Packers cover that spread or even manage to pull off a massive upset? Check out our picks for that game and all of the others across the NFL in week 8 below.