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Calling our Shots: APC’s most specific predictions for Week 8

Digging into our most specific prognostications for the Packers’ eighth game.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Nobody nailed their predictions for Week 7, but Paul Noonan got the closest. He predicted that Washington’s Terry McLaurin would go for more than 100 yards and two scores working mostly against Eric Stokes. Well, McLaurin only managed 73 yards and a single score, but he should probably get some bonus points for doing a lot of his damage against Jaire Alexander.

Who gets the closest this week? Nobody took the easy route of predicting a Bills win, but many of our predictions are along those lines. Here’s what we’ve got for you heading into Week 8.

Rcon14: Rodgers will post a sub-4 aDOT

With Lazard questionable, Doubs unreliable, Cobb out, and Watkins clearly not moving at 100%, there are going to be so many targets behind the line of scrimmage. Aaron Jones is going to get a ton of touches, just in bad places. Green Bay will fall behind big, but Rodgers won’t trust any of the wide receivers (and frankly, you can’t entirely blame him with how awful they have been), and this devolves into a gross blowout.

Tex Western: Gabe Davis scores a touchdown of 50 or more yards

I’ve predicted successes for the Packers in these spaces before, but not today. Instead, I see a strong likelihood that Gabe Davis will be matched up on Eric Stokes with Jaire Alexander shadowing Stefon Diggs, and that it will not go well for the second-year corner. Some miscommunication between Stokes and Darnell Savage will let Davis run free and do what he does best: catch a bomb for a score. All four of his touchdowns this year were 26 yards or more, and he has both a 62-yarder and a 98-yarder already. He also scored from 75 last year in the playoffs. Yikes. Oh, and the Packers are the third-worst defense in the NFL by DVOA in defending deep passes.

Paul Noonan: Samori Toure’ scores his first NFL touchdown on the exact play they ran to Watson on the first play of the season. It will be their longest touchdown of the season.

The receivers are all hurt, Toure’ was good on tape last week, and I suspect they give him a prove-it shot play just to check. The Bills have an amazing defense, but to the extent they have any relative weakness, it’s outside corner. It all sets up perfectly. The Toure’ breakout/Watkins revenge game is upon us.

Jon Meerdink: Aaron Rodgers will have at least 20 rushing yards

Rodgers hasn’t been on the move much this year. Is it age? Strategy? Lack of opportunity? Who knows, exactly. Probably a combination of all those things and more. But Rodgers spoke of wanting to scramble more this week, and with the Packers likely to be trailing quite a bit in this game, I think he’ll make a point of breaking the pocket and running. Put Rodgers down for at least 20 yards this week.

Check out all the odds for this week’s games courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.