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Packers open up as 6.5-point underdogs vs Eagles

Maybe being an underdog would be a nice change of pace for Green Bay.

Tennessee Titans v Green Bay Packers Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Green Bay Packers have just a six percent chance to make the playoffs in 2022, in part because of their 4-7 record and in part because they’re about to face the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. If the Packers were to win on Sunday, their chances of making the postseason would nearly triple and if they lose they’ll half, per FiveThirtyEight’s model.

That’s what makes this a particularly high-leverage game for Green Bay, whose season is virtually on the line every week moving forward. One benefit they have is a little extra rest, as they’re coming off a Thursday Night Football loss to the Tennessee Titans. The problem? The Eagles still have the best record in the NFL at 9-1, despite a less-than-impressive showing against the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts over the last two weeks. There are also rumors swirling around that quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ thumb injury could be a broken thumb, which would explain some of his inaccuracy issues this season.

According to DraftKings, the Packers are 6.5-point underdogs this week, consistent with the line that was posted before their loss on Thursday. Green Bay is listed at +230 to win the game straight up, which carries an implied probability that they beat the Eagles 30 percent of the time.

The Packers have played particularly poorly against the spread this year, which shouldn’t be surprising considering how disappointing their season has been. They have a 4-7 record against the spread in 2022, which is only better than what the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Broncos and Rams have posted this season. That’s your collection of underachievers right there.

Despite that, Green Bay is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this year. If you can do the math, that means they’re 1-6 against the spread as favorites, which is the worst mark in the league among teams who were favored in five or more games this season. The Eagles have a 5-5 record against the spread as favorites this year, despite their stellar record.

Injuries to watch out for this week are to inside linebackers De’Vondre Campbell (knee) and Quay Walker (shoulder.) Campbell has missed several weeks in a row with an undisclosed knee injury that Campbell stated did not involve a torn ligament or any structural damage. Head coach Matt LaFleur has called the injury “day-to-day.” Walker left Thursday’s game with an injury after being the “green dot” signal-caller in recent weeks.